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The NFL's Week 6 Overreaction Index

Week 6 of the NFL season is in the books, and we have one more week of data to analyze and another slate of film to pour through.

But the takes do not wait for that analysis to occur.

Instant reactions are the name of the game in sports media, and as soon as the games end the overreactions begin. That is why we at Touchdown Wire have created the Overreaction Index. A way of putting together some of the biggest reactions from the weekend and sorting out those that have merit, from those that do not.

Let’s dive in.

The Minnesota Vikings made their Kirk Cousins bed. Now they have to lie in it.

(Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports)

Back in March of 2018, the Minnesota Vikings signed free agent quarterback Kirk Cousins to a three-year, $84 million contract with all of that money fully guaranteed.

This past off-season, the Vikings extended Cousins with a two-year deal worth $66 million, with all of that money guaranteed.

What do they have to show for it at this point? One playoff win and a lot of questions.

With the Minnesota Vikings falling to 1-5 on the season, their loss to the previously winless Atlanta Falcons felt like the final death knell for their season.

But what do you do about Cousins if you are the Vikings? He was dreadful at the start against Atlanta, throwing three early interceptions, two of which would have benched most rookie quarterbacks, and became a quick meme on Twitter:

The problem, there is not much you can do. The money involved simply does not work for Minnesota. Their only hope is to find a way for Cousins to play better, because moving on from him is simply too cost-prohibitive. They made their bed, it is time to lay down in it.

Verdict: Unfortunately for Vikings fans, there is no overreaction here.

The math just does not work to move on from Cousins if you are the current regime. If you cut him in 2021, you are facing $40 million in dead cap space, severely limiting what you can do to rebuild. If you keep him in 2021 to avoid that, his 2022 salary guarantees, putting you on the hook for $30 million in that season. The classic “damned if you do, damned if you don’t scenario.”

Now, this group can just rip the band-aid off in 2021 and eat that $40 million, but then you are trying to rebuild with your hands tied financially, and that often does not work out for you as a front office.

Money talks. In this case it might be that simple.

The New England Patriots are going to miss the playoffs.

(Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports)

The New England Patriots returned to the field this week after a shifted schedule for the second-straight week due to COVID-19 testing. After their Week 4 game was delayed due to Cam Newton’s positive test, their scheduled Week 5 game against Denver was pushed back a week.

Perhaps due to the change in schedules and the lack of practice time, the Patriots struggled against the Broncos, particularly on offense. It took until the fourth quarter for the New England offense to get anything going on that side of the football, and they fell short 18-12 after climbing out of an 18-3 hole.

Despite making the game close, the Patriots fell to 2-3 and now lack a bye week to sort things out. Now as they look up at the Buffalo Bills and yes the Miami Dolphins in the division, their fans face an uncomfortable truth: This team is not making the playoffs.

The odds back that up:

Panic time in New England?

Verdict: Medium overreaction.

Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has long maintained that how you play in December is much more important than how you play in October. To that end, the Patriots have often used the first four games as an extended preseason schedule, and perhaps in 2020 that was more pronounced, given the lack of a typical training camp.

Furthermore, the lack of practice severely hampered New England this week, as they were playing with a number of either new offensive linemen,  or starters in different positions. They began the game with rookie Justin Herron at left tackle, sliding their usual LT Isaiah Wynn to left guard. Usual left guard Joe Thuney started at center. On the right side, rookie Michael Onwenu started at guard while Jermaine Eluemunor was at right tackle.

But when Cam Newton rolled into the back of Eluemunor’s legs on a sack, Onwenu had to slide to tackle while second-year player Hjalte Froholdt came in to play guard.

With new faces and unfamiliar positions the norm up front, they struggled to protect Newton.

So the silver lining for Patriots fans is that the organization has endured some slow starts before while they figure things out. Plus, not every week is going to be like this one.

The problem is, things do not get easier for them, and questions exist on the offense outside of the line. The receiving corps is a question mark, including veteran Julian Edelman, who has struggled with some drops dating back to last season. Do they have the time to figure things out? Newton said on Monday in a call with the media that the “answers are in the locker room,” but is there truth to that?

But one last sliver of silver lining? The defense. A unit built to win rockfights put them in position to do just that on Sunday. They allowed six-straight scoring drives from Denver, but they were just field goals. Then in the fourth quarter they forced a pair of interceptions from Drew Lock, so with just over three minutes remaining Newton and the offense was on the field, down six, with a chance to win. If their defense can do that week-to-week, that might buy them enough time to figure things out.

Albert Okwuegbunam is going to be the best of the 2020 tight end class.

(Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports)

With Noah Fant out with an injury, the Denver Broncos turned to rookie Albert Okwuegbunam to get the start against New England. His numbers were not that impressive, as he caught just two passes for 45 yards on six targets, but his style of play was eye-catching. This was his first NFL action, and he flashed the skills and athleticism that turned heads at the Combine.

Remember, when he posted a surprising 4.49 40-yard dash?

You saw that show up on this play against another rookie who impressed with his athleticism, Kyle Dugger:

This was an interesting tight end class to evaluate, but when all is said and done, Albert Okwuegbunam is going to be the best of the group.

Verdict: Medium overreaction.

The rookie tight end was extremely impressive Sunday against the Patriots, and he could have enjoyed an even bigger day, as he had a chance at his first NFL touchdown slip through his fingers on a corner route thrown by Drew Lock. Why this is not an overreaction is that his athleticism seemed to translate quite well to the professional game, which will buy him time and opportunities on the field to sort out the finer points of the game.

Why this is a bit of an overreaction is because it was just one game. He could end up being the best of the bunch, but it will take more than one game to reach that conclusion with confidence.

Carson Wentz is the NFL's Sisyphus.

(Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports)

We all know the tale of Sisyphus from Greek mythology, a king of Cornith who was given the eternal punishment by Zeus of forever rolling a boulder up a hill in Hades. An impossible task, yet Sisyphus would continue to try no matter the odds.

Watching Carson Wentz brings that tale to mind.

The Philadelphia Eagles’ quarterback almost willed his team back to a victory over the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, in a game that doled out the abuse to Wentz similar to that of Sisyphus in Hades. With the Ravens staked to a big lead early, their defense could pin their ears back and just tee off on the quarterback. Which they did, battering Wentz.

But he never quit. And with three fourth quarter touchdown passes, Wentz and the Eagles were within a two-point conversion of overtime. That fell short, but Wentz as Sisyphus never faltered.

Verdict: No overreaction.

As far as losses go, this game from Philadelphia was perhaps the “loss of the week.” A game few gave them a chance in, a game that seemed out of hand early, came down to one play for a shot at overtime. Largely due to a quarterback who refuses to die, regardless of the odds.

In this woeful division, that might be enough. Our tragic figure might just roll that boulder out of the bowels of the hell that is the NFC East when the season is over.

Week 6 showed us the real Aaron Rodgers.

(Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports)

When the Green Bay Packers made the decision to draft Jordan Love in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft, it brought into focus a question that was burning in corners of football media over the past year or so: Is Aaron Rodgers finished? Rather than adding a new offensive weapon for him, the organization seemingly drafted his replacement.

Perhaps Rodgers internalized that message and used it to fuel him, because through the first five weeks of the season we had seen perhaps the Rodgers of old. He was impressive in wins such as a Sunday night tilt against the New Orleans Saints, showing some of that deep-ball magic:

Entering Sunday, Rodgers was leading the league with an Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt of 10.13 and was the only quarterback in double digits. But then Sunday happened, and after the Packers got out to a ten-point lead, the Packers struggled. He threw interceptions on back-to-back drives, one of which was a Pick Six, and ended the afternoon on the bench.

Redemption for the doubters?

Verdict: A medium level of overreaction.

I would not go as far as to say that Rodgers is done and the rest of his season is going to mimic what we saw against Tampa Bay. The NFL has a way of humbling you, even when things are going well. The guys on the other side of the football are getting paid too. Rodgers seemed to make that point after the loss:

You don’t ever want to lose like this. I felt like we needed a little bit of a wake-up call at some point this season because things have been so good and there’s been so much talk maybe outside the building about the ease with which we’re moving the ball on offense and scoring. I think we needed kind of a kick in the ass a little bit.

There’s a little bit of wake-up to stop feeling ourselves so much and get back to the things that got us to this position. I think this would be, unfortunately but fortunately, something we can really grow from.

The deeper discussion might be about not getting Rodgers another weapon back in that first round, but I’ll leave that one to Packers Twitter…

The Cleveland Browns still have a Baker Mayfield problem.

(Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)

If you were or are a believer in Baker Mayfield, this was the kind of outing that had to terrify you. A game where he seemed out of sorts from the start, struggled and ultimately gave way in a blowout.

It unraveled early for Mayfield on this Pick-Six:

On video this looks bad. Mayfield never moves his eyes from his target and Minkah Fitzpatrick jumps in front of the target for the easy pick and score. But the “dots?” The dots make it look much worse:

Fitzpatrick is driving down on this throw as the play begins. He knows that it is coming, and Mayfield does nothing to prevent the impending disaster.

That one read and throw is emblematic of the problems that still plague Mayfield, particularly his play from the pocket. Until he fixes things, this team is going to struggle, and since he shows almost no sign of fixing them…

Verdict: Slight overreaction.

There are also some reasons why this game could just be an outliner. Mayfield was playing hurt, for one, having banged up his ribs last week. Number two, this is a very good Pittsburgh Steelers defense that came after him early and often, putting him under duress and getting some shots on him and those battered ribs. Was this a bad game? Yes. Is their room for growth? Sure. But look at this number: Ten. Mayfield was pressured on ten of his 23 passing attempts against Pittsburgh, according to PFF. When you’re hurt and pressured like that, it is hard to be successful. Are their things he needs to fix? Of course, but I would not hit that panic button.

Yet.

This is a great wide receiver class, but Chase Claypool and Justin Jefferson are at the top.

(Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports)

In Week 5 Chase Claypool stunned the NFL world with four touchdowns against the Philadelphia Eagles, leading all players in touchdowns on the week. This week fellow rookie Justin Jefferson caught nine passes for 166 yards and a pair of touchdowns in a loss to the Atlanta Falcons. Jefferson’s 166 yards led all receivers in Week 6.

This was billed as a potentially legendary wide receiver class, starting with CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III at the top. That may largely pan out, as those three players along with other rookies such as Brandon Aiyuk, Laviska Shenault Jr., Gabriel Davis, Tee Higgins and Bryan Edwards have been impressive. But we have seen enough. Claypool and Jefferson are tops of the class and are going to stay there.

Verdict: Big overreaction.

Similar to the discussion about rookie tight end Albert Okwuegbunam, it is much too early to make such a declaration.

However.

What might make this ultimately true is the landing spot for both players. We spend countless hours in football media evaluating players for the draft and hypothesizing about how their traits will or will not translate to life in the NFL. The problem? Outside of the fact that it might highlight a deep-rooted psychological issue or two (or so my doctors tell me) is that in the end none of that matters. No this is not a 2020 “eat Arby’s” nihilist reference, but what truly matters is the landing spot, scheme fit and coaching vision.

Look where both ended up. Claypool on a roster where he would be counted on initially to be the third or fourth option in the passing game. That put him in a position to learn his craft, do what he does, and contribute without a lot of pressure on him.

For Jefferson, the schematic fit in Minnesota was close to ideal. Lots of 12 personnel packages, enabling the Vikings to put him in closer splits, similar to his usage at LSU when he operated primarily out of the slot in 2019.

They might end up as the top two out of this class in the end, but it is much too early to make that call with any confidence. Yet they serve as another reminder that landing spot trumps almost everything else in the draft evaluation world.

Matt Patricia just discovered zone coverage and it will save his job.

(Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports)

When the Ford family hired Matt Patricia away from the New England Patriots, they believed they were getting a defensive-minded head coach who would turn around the Detroit Lions on that side of the football.

The results have largely not lived up to that billing.

In fact, Patricia soon became a favorite to be the first head coach fired. They blew double-digit leads in the first two weeks of the season, and let Mitchell Trubisky generate a comeback victory against them in Week 1.

Part of the problem? Patricia’s reliance on man coverage. Much like his mentor Bill Belichick, Patricia views Cover 1 as the best scheme in the secondary. The problem? You need talent to do that. Right now Belichick has players like J.C. Jackson, Jonathan Jones, Jason McCourty and Stephon Gilmore.

Patricia does not.

The result? Not good.

This continued in Detroit’s Week 1 loss to the Bears, in which Patricia’s bunch put up a 23-6 third-quarter lead before allowing Mitchell Trubisky (?!?!?) to throw three fourth-quarter touchdown passes in a 27-23 Chicago win. As Chris Burke of The Athletic pointed out, Trubisky was able to make things happen as he hadn’t before after cornerback Desmond Trufant was injured. But with Trufant out, the Lions also gave Trubisky an increasing amount of man coverage… and boy, was that a bad idea. In the fourth quarter against man and combo coverage, Trubisky completed seven of seven passes for 84 yards and all three of his touchdown passes. Cornerback Tony McRae was debited with two of those touchdowns, and safety Tracy Walker had the third.

But something might have changed this week.

That tweet goes on to report that this is the least amount of man coverage played by the Lions in the entire Patricia Era.

The result? A win over Jacksonville on an afternoon where your defense pressured the quarterback and forced mistakes from the opposing offense.

It might add up to more than a win. It might save Patricia’s job.

Verdict: No overreaction.

Like many, I assumed that Patricia would be fired sooner rather than later. But in recent weeks this team has played better, and has won two of their last three games, the only loss being a one-score defeat at the hands of the New Orleans Saints. With Atlanta, Carolina, Minnesota, Washington being three of their next four opponents, there is a very good chance Detroit is in the playoff mix come Thanksgiving. When they get a national showcase game. Coaches are supposed to put their players in the best position to be successful, and using zone coverage more is catering to the team Patricia has, not the team he wants.

And the results are clear.

Minshew Mania is over.

(Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports)

Unfortunately, Week 6 provided a flip side to the “Matt Patricia discovered zone coverage” coin.

That came at the expense of someone, and in this case it was Gardner Minshew.

The second-year passer had a rough afternoon against the Detroit Lions, throwing an interception and losing a fumble. He competed just 56.% of his passes – his lowest mark of the season – and his QBR of 39.9 was also his worst game of the year according to that metric.

The loss, Jacksonville’s fifth-straight, dropped the Jaguars to 1-5 on the season. Their Week 1 victory over the Indianapolis Colts seems a light year away. What might truly spell the end of Minshew Mania was not a single afternoon against the Lions, but this:

That might not be Trevor Lawrence territory yet, but it’s firmly in the Justin Fields/Trey Lance/Kyle Trask and yes dare we say Zach Wilson/Mac Jones range.

Verdict: Minimal overreaction. 

I’ve been as big a proponent of Minshew as anyone, but the draw of a fortune-changing quarterback might simply be too much for the organization to ignore. Minshew is fine when the game script is in Jacksonville’s favor and they can run their offense, but when turned into a one-dimensional offense, they struggle. That is good sometimes, but not always. The draw of a quarterback you can win because of, and not with, will be too enticing.

Josh Allen was the concern, but the Bills defense is the problem.

Coming into the 2020 season, Buffalo Bills fans were cautiously optimistic about the year ahead. With improvement from Josh Allen the rest of the pieces were in place for Buffalo to make a return trip to the playoffs, and perhaps even make a bit of a run.

While Allen has improved – Monday evening aside – one of the pieces Bills fans were counting on seems to have regressed. Their defense.

On a rainy night in Buffalo the Kansas City Chiefs put together a strong rushing performance from rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire with two touchdown passes from Patrick Mahomes en ro ute to a 26-17 win at Orchard Park. Mahomes completed 21 of 26 passes for 225 yards and the two scores, while the rookie running back had 161 yards rushing on 26 carries.

That defensive performance is not an outliner, as the Bills defense has struggled this season. They allowed 28 points to the Miami Dolphins back in Week 2, 32 points to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 3, 23 to the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 4, and 42 last week to the Tennessee Titans. So while Allen might have been the worry heading into the season, the real problem right now is the defense.

Verdict: No overreaction.

This is a bit of a stunning development, and one that myself and others did not see coming. The Bills defense, particularly their secondary, seemed to be a strength of this team coming into the year. But the results speak for themselves. Heading into Week 6 the Bills ranked just 27th in Total Defense DVOA at Football Outsiders, and that number is not going to improve after this performance. The bright side is that Buffalo has games against the New York Jets and the New England Patriots, two offenses that have struggled with consistency issues, before facing Russell Wilson and the Seahawks on November 8th. They’ll have to get right in a hurry for this season to end up as Bills fans hoped it would when it began.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are the best team in the NFL.

(Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)

They are undefeated.

They just plastered a division rival by 31 points.

Their defense is stifling, able to generate pressure on the opposing passer with ease.

Their offense is running the football well and generating big plays in the downfield passing game.

When you look around at the other teams in the league – even the two other unbeaten teams in Tennessee and Seattle – you see at least a weakness or two. There are no such weaknesses in Pittsburgh.

The Steelers are the best team in football.

Verdict: Medium overreaction.

Right now, they are the best team in football. But as this game has taught us, fortunes can change in an instant. The Seahawks have questions on the defensive side of the football. Questions might still linger about Ryan Tannehill and whether he can be counted on to win games with just his arm, if the defense is struggling or the run game is not clicking for the Titans.

So right now yes, the Steelers are the best team in football. But they get those Titans in a week, and a lot can happen in just seven days of an NFL season. Ask us again next week.

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