More than a speech: 5 things Biden really needs to do in the State of the Union

It's not just another speech.

Standing before a joint session of Congress − and addressing what may be his largest TV audience of the year − President Joe Biden faces the challenge of his political lifetime Thursday in resetting a reelection year that has many Democrats frantic and Republicans smug.

There are times when the annual State of the Union is an opportunity for a president to unveil ambitious policy proposals, build public support behind them and forge bipartisan coalitions to enact them.

This is not one of those times.

Biden doesn't have the luxury of the laundry list. With the election eight months away and Donald Trump pulling slightly ahead in most national polls, the speech stands as the prime moment for the president to convince Americans they shouldn't evict him from the White House in favor of his predecessor.

Prep for the polls: See who is running for president and compare where they stand on key issues in our Voter Guide

He needs not only to pivot to the center on immigration but also to allay a progressive base that has been fractured over the plight of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. He has to claim credit for brightening economic news − not to mention convince skeptics that the economy is brightening − while indicting Republicans for the national firestorm over abortion rights.

Most difficult of all, he must turn around an impression of himself that already has been set among most Americans.

Easy? No. Crucial? Yes.

Here's what he needs to do.

1. Not just older. Wiser.

This time, the single most important thing isn't what Biden says. It's how he says it and how he looks.

Biden's age − he's 81 − is impervious to political spin. He started his term as the oldest president in American history, and in speech and gait he has visibly aged since then. Nearly three-fourths of registered voters said in a Siena-New York Times poll last week that he was too old to be effective in office.

Depicting Biden as mentally and physically infirm is a basic part of Trump's campaign strategy, even though the presumptive Republican nominee, 77, is only four years younger.

But in his address, Biden can try to convey that age has also brought wisdom. He can project vigor and confidence from the moment he steps into the House chamber. He can use humor and crispness to defuse Americans' concerns about his acuity.

He managed to do that last year with an unscripted retort. When he accused Republicans of wanting to cut Social Security and Medicare, they jeered. "Liar!" shouted Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga.

"As we all apparently agree," Biden replied with a grin. "Social Security and Medicare is off the books now."

2. Pivot on immigration

As a flood of migrants has created chaos on the southern border and a crisis on city streets across the country, immigration has replaced the economy as the most damaging issue for Biden. He has been laying the groundwork to announce new and tougher policies.

That may help him attract centrist voters, but it also carries the risk of alienating others who accuse him of adopting approaches that they, and Biden, decried as inhumane during the Trump administration. The political gymnastics involved: Appeal to one group while holding the allegiance of the other.

Biden already embraced a major shift on immigration this year when he backed a foreign aid bill that would have allowed the Department of Homeland Security to close the border if too many migrants were trying to cross it and expedited the repatriation of migrants who failed to win asylum. The measure passed the Senate but was scuttled in the House after Trump complained it would be "another Gift to the Radical Left Democrats," addressing a problem that was paying off for Republicans.

The president has blasted Trump and the GOP for blocking the bipartisan measure. Now he seems poised to announce executive orders he can sign to deal with what he has begun referring to as "the border crisis."

That is a big turn from the immigration proposal he sent to Congress on his first day in office. It offered pathways to citizenship for young immigrant "Dreamers" and vowed to "restore humanity and American values to our immigration system."

3. Abortion, abortion, abortion

Opposition to abortion used to galvanize the white evangelical Christians in the Republican base without costing the GOP support among voters with different views.

That changed when the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, courtesy of a majority created by Trump's three appointees to the high court. Since then, more than a dozen states have banned all or most abortions. In other states, including conservative ones like Kansas, voters have moved to protect abortion access. The issue delivered for Democrats in last year's midterm elections, a major factor in denying Republicans the "red wave" they had predicted.

In Republican primaries Tuesday, surveys of voters showed that Republican primary voters in Virginia opposed enacting a national ban on abortion by double digits, 57%-34%. In North Carolina, a more conservative state, Republican primary voters split on the question: 49% supported a ban, and 45% opposed one.

Though Trump has nearly swept the GOP's nominating contests this year − Nikki Haley's victories in Vermont and the District of Columbia aside − those election returns have carried some warning signs among independent voters, a group that largely supports reproductive rights. Trump has urged negotiations on abortion access, floating the idea of a ban on abortion at 15 weeks of pregnancy that would allow exceptions in cases in rape, incest and to save the life of the mother.

Biden, a devout Catholic, has had his own reservations about abortion in the past. Now, politically speaking, he needs to put himself firmly on the side of abortion rights.

And paint Trump squarely on the other side.

4. Are those green shoots?

Many of the experts who predicted a recession was all but inevitable now acknowledge the economy has managed to make a "soft landing" instead, with the job market strong and inflation beginning to temper.

Americans are starting to believe them.

The monthly University of Michigan survey of consumer sentiment rose 16 percentage points in December and another 13 points in January, the biggest consecutive increases since 1991. Though Republicans remain more pessimistic than Democrats, Americans gave the economy its highest rating since July 2021, early in Biden's term.

So far, that rosier outlook hasn't done much to boost the president, whose approval rating remains mired at a dismal 38.1%, according to recent national polls averaged by fivethirtyeight.com. A majority of Americans, 56.2%, disapprove of the job he's doing as president.

Other issues matter more than the economy, at least at the moment, a University of Michigan analysis concluded, "more so than in any prior presidential election."

Give it time, Biden strategists say. As voters see the impact of a brightening economy in their own lives, they argue, it will rebound to Biden's benefit.

Count on Biden to tout the huge $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill he pushed through Congress in 2021. Only now is ground being broken on many of the projects designed to provide safe drinking water, expand internet access, repair bridges and boost public transit.

After the speech, the president and a dozen Cabinet members are being sent across the country. Biden will travel to Wisconsin to talk about jobs. Vice President Kamala Harris will go to Atlanta to spotlight investments in clean energy. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack will address a conference of farmers in Arizona on growing economic opportunities in rural communities. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm will announce a grant to a battery manufacturer in Carson City, Nevada.

Those are swing states, by the way.

5. Bring back the band

Biden likes to point out that he already has defeated Trump once, in 2020. "I'm the only one who has ever beat him," he told The New Yorker in an interview published Monday. "And I'll beat him again." He believes his argument that Trump poses a threat to democracy itself resonated with Americans four years ago and will again this time.

But Biden's Electoral College victory in 2020 was narrow, dependent on small margins in a handful of states − Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin among them. While Trump has held his losing coalition together, Biden has watched his winning coalition erode.

An overwhelming 91% of registered voters who said they voted for Trump in 2020 plan to vote for him again in November, according to aggregated national polls over the past six months sponsored by Marquette Law School. But among Biden's 2020 voters, only 81% plan to vote for him again.

His support has ebbed significantly among Black and Hispanic voters and among young people. Overwhelming support and strong turnout among all three groups were essential to his victory in 2020.

The good news is that Biden has lost ground not to Trump (just 2% of his voters have switched to him) but rather to "someone else," an unnamed third-party candidate who now claims 15% of Biden's supporters. Those voters could well be open to persuasion to come back.

If Biden can make that case.