Austin FC vs. St. Louis City SC: Our score prediction is in as the Verde & Black return to Q2

Coming off a lackluster offensive showing and likely without star player Sebastián Driussi for a third straight game may not be the ideal time for Austin FC to be facing St. Louis, but that’s what the MLS schedule provides Saturday at Q2 Stadium. 

As the Verde & Black look for their first win of the season, they’ll try and do so against the pressing, physical and fast-paced style the league’s newest club brings to the field. 

Here’s our score prediction and what you need to know about the matchup:

Saturday's pace should be fast and furious 

If Saturday’s match will be anything, it will be entertaining. St. Louis coach Bradley Carnell uses a breakneck style of play that has constant pressing and is almost entirely focused on offense. It’s essentially the soccer equivalent of the no-huddle offense in football or run-and-gun in basketball, and it spurred St. Louis to be the only team in the West to score more than 60 goals last year.   

While St. Louis has been more effective at home — and, it should be noted, flamed out in the first round of the MLS playoffs against eighth-seeded Kansas City — it should still provide a game Saturday that has plenty of action. 

Austin FC coach Josh Wolff also prefers an attacking style of play, though without Driussi last week at Seattle, his lineup — and the team’s play overall — was more conservative. Still, if the game is even remotely close the last time the two clubs met in August when St. Louis won 6-3 — and the game probably should have been 8-5 — then fun should be in high supply.  

If you have friends who don’t like soccer, this is the game to take them to (And don’t be discouraged by the club’s imaginary sellout streak. You can find tickets if you look hard enough).

But that’s also assuming Austin FC keeps up its end of the deal. 

The Verde & Black were underwhelming — and that might be putting it kindly — on offense in their scoreless draw vs. the Sounders, only finishing with two shots, the first of which didn’t come until after the 70th minute. They also had an expected goals stat of 0.09. 

Austin FC will need to be much better this week, but the good news on that front is it would almost be hard to be worse. 

Driussi’s status in limbo; game could suit Rubio, Obrian

Wolff noted in his weekly meeting with the media that Driussi is “questionable” as he’s still dealing with a hamstring issue. It would be surprising if he plays, but that doesn’t mean Austin FC should play conservative. Against St. Louis, that might be asking for a 3-1 loss. 

Presumably, Wolff will again start Diego Rubio at striker and Jader Obrian on the right wing. 

This seems to be a game that suits both players well. Obrian will be one of the fastest players on the field, and St. Louis’ over-pursuing and mediocre defending should give both plenty of opportunities. And don’t be surprised to see Owen Wolff play 30 or more minutes as this game also suits his more athletic, physical style of play. 

Defense will (mostly) have depth

Josh Wolff noted that reserve center back Brendon Hines-Ike will be available. That’s good news for a defense that will likely need to use substitutions. 

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Hines-Ike missed the Seattle game due to a family issue. Center backs Julio Cascante and Matt Hedges were solid at Seattle, but Hines-Ike provides a decent option off the bench or in case of injury. Outside backs Zan Kolmanic, Jon Gallagher and Guilherme Biro were also good a week ago, though the club still lacks depth behind Gallagher at right back. 

Austin FC vs. St. Louis score prediction

Austin FC 3, St. Louis 3: Without Driussi, it’s difficult to predict Austin FC winning against the club that won the West a year ago. The Verde & Black should take a point as they manage playing without their best player and with a limited roster that they’ll have to deal with until the summer transfer window.  

Saturday’s match

St. Louis City SC (1-0-1, 4 points) at Austin FC (0-1-1, 1 point), 7:30 p.m., Q2 Stadium, Apple TV, 97.5