Abortion ‘on the ballot’ in KY: Roe’s fall elevates the debate in fall campaigns and beyond

On a historic day, Grayson Vandegrift was reminded of one his family’s most personal moments.

The Democratic candidate for state representative in Central Kentucky’s 56th House District and his wife Katie considered aborting what would have been their second child, named Audrey, diagnosed with a fatal disease.

Vandegrift, who is currently the mayor of Midway, posted their family’s story to Facebook on the same day that the landmark case Roe v. Wade, which provided a constitutional protection for abortion in the United States up to 22 weeks of pregnancy,was overturned by the U.S. Supreme Court. That day, Kentucky’s law banning all abortions except those that threaten the life of the mother, went into effect.

The politician shared a wrenching story of Audrey passing in utero at 18 weeks; at her burial he recalled watching his wife “lay on the ground, begging to go down there with her.”

“I don’t like abortion. I never will. But if elected to the state legislature I’ll make decisions that take into account the pain and suffering of people like Katie - because we’ve learned since then that there are so many whose pain has only been magnified by short-sighted bills,” Vandegrift wrote.

Vandegrift is running in a traditionally Democratic district that joined a massive red wave in state-level politics in 2020 when it voted overwhelmingly for Rep. Daniel Fister, R-Versailles.

Fister is strong in his anti-abortion beliefs. Once on the board of directors of Kentucky Right to Life, the legislator rejoiced that “the voiceless have been heard” a day after Roe fell.

Both responses to the ruling – which made a war waged for 50 years on largely hypothetical grounds became reality for many conservative states like Kentucky – reveal different beliefs as to what the majority of voters in their district want on abortion policy. Fister holds that a near-total ban is something his voters will back while Vandegrift is betting that a story like his family’s will resonate with voters that might want something less strict.

Nationwide, many political observers have speculated that reaction to Roe falling could spell trouble for Republicans – Democrats have inched closer to overtaking Republicans in blank Congressional ballot polls, and Democratic campaigns for national office have centered the issue as “on the ballot” in their races.

They have reason to do so: a majority of American voters, by the numbers, oppose near-complete bans on access to abortion like Kentucky’s.

But will Republicans in Kentucky, a conservative state by most measures, pay an electoral price for their abortion policy?

The answer largely depends on who you ask, and what part of Kentucky’s trigger law you’re talking about. Republicans project confidence that the people of Kentucky are generally pro-life, and diminish the role of abortion as an electoral issue; Democrats like Vandegrift, meanwhile, say that the ban could spur a backlash among moderate Republicans and other voters that might have a distaste for a full ban on a procedure that’s been available to women for the last 50 years.

“When it was a values conflict between vaguely pro-life versus vaguely pro-choice positions, that hurt the Democrats badly because they were on the smaller side of the division,” University of Kentucky political science professor D. Stephen Voss said. “But now that we’re talking real medical regulations, the dividing line is moving, and it gives Democrats an opportunity to frame the GOP stance as extreme.”

And while nationally, putting abortion “on the ballot” is a rhetorical verve from Democrats trying to score some points in swing elections, the issue is literally on the ballot in Kentucky this November.

Based on a bill sponsored by the state representative that also sponsored the state’s trigger ban – Joe Fischer, R-Ft. Thomas – Kentuckians will vote yes or no in November on a measure that would amend the state constitution to say that the document does not provide a right to an abortion.

A political backlash?

Both of Kentucky’s state legislative chambers are dominated by pro-life Republicans, none of whom voted against the most recent omnibus anti-abortion bill. The party holds 75 of 100 House seats and 30 of 38 in the Senate.

After a redistricting process that produced maps which Democrats say are gerrymandered to ensure even more Republican gains, some GOP members say that they’ll win an even stronger majority.

Jason Nemes, R-Louisville, has helped lead recruiting efforts for House GOP candidates. He says that abortion won’t change much at all.

“I don’t know how it’s going to affect Republicans in other places across the country, but I know what people are discussing in my district,” Nemes said. “The voters I’m talking to aren’t talking about it.”

Nemes is a suburban Republican who supports adding an exception for rape and incest to the current ban. He said that the current state of the economy, crime and education are the three issues most on voters minds – and they favor Republicans in Kentucky.

Voss agreed that, at least for now, the immediate concerns about the economy and other kitchen table issues will likely still play the primary role in voters’ decisions this fall. But the backlash could come later, he said.

“If I were going to forecast some kind of consequence from the Supreme Court decision in Kentucky elections, I don’t think it’s appeared yet. Because the actual execution of it’s been muddled by court cases, that’s also made the real life impact of the decision be more drawn out so far,” Voss said.

“I have heard of cases where very young people were sexually abused, and those stories are really powerful,” Northern Kentucky University political science professor Ryan Salzman said. “But if the courts don’t move to enforce the trigger law, if there’s not an opportunity for those stories to become common and widely shared to drive people to the polls… I’m not sure that (any backlash) will happen quickly enough.”

Rep. Lisa Willner, D-Louisville, and Democratic Minority Floor Leader Reggie Thomas, D-Lexington, think that the backlash could happen because of a confluence of the Dobbs decision and mobilization against the constitutional amendment.

“I don’t think they were thinking that Roe v. Wade would be overturned by the Supreme Court,” Willner said. “That could end up having a surprise effect of getting more people who support abortion out to the polls.”

But outside of opposition to the constitutional amendment, Democrats’ and progressives’ response hasn’t quite centered around a single message. Rep. Josie Raymond, D-Louisville, says that there is “no room for compromise on reproductive rights,” while some of her Democratic counterparts like Thomas say they would vote for a measure introducing exceptions to the ban while remaining unsatisfied with the law as a whole.

Susan Liebell, a political science professor at St. Joseph’s University in Philadelphia whose work focuses on constitutional rights, said that there could be gains to be made for candidates who present themselves in the mold of former president Bill Clinton on this issue. Clinton would often say he wanted abortion to be “safe, legal and rare.”

“If Republicans were previously competing for ‘who could propose the harshest trigger laws’ – but public opinion doesn’t support the substance of those laws – more moderate Republicans or Democrats might benefit,” Liebell said. “If you look carefully, what most Americans want is fairly conservative. Insisting on viability may have been a mistake because Dems might have been able to get some Republicans to compromise on 16 weeks, exceptions for rape, incest, fetal abnormalities, and the health of the pregnant person.”

GOP Majority Floor Leader Steven Rudy, R-Paducah, acknowledged that it’s possible that the trigger law taking effect could hurt some anti-abortion Republicans closer to the state’s major population centers, but he wasn’t sure to what extent – or where. He also emphasized that no Republicans voted against the most recent omnibus anti-abortion bill, House Bill 3.

All of these political actions, however, might have been easier for conservatives to do when the protection of Roe was still in place. Liebell said one way to think about Republicans’ positioning post-Roe is as the proverbial dog that caught the car.

“They had an issue that they could push on, and there was a substantial enough group of single issue voters. Pro-choice voters were not single-issue voters. But the people with the most radical views – views not shared by a large majority of Americans –were single issue voters,” Liebell said. “So, it was politically useful to have voters who will vote for you on abortion, but because of Roe all you can do is say that you are opposed to abortion for incest, rape, or even life of the pregnant person. Without Roe, these public officials have to either stand by the trigger legislation, that may be too extreme for the public, or pass something else.”

Salzman and Voss said that in an area like Northern Kentucky, which is populous but deeply conservative, the issue isn’t a clear winner. But it’s not a clear loser either, Voss said. Voters there have shown as recently as the 2019 gubernatorial race that saw Gov. Andy Beshear defeat the unpopular former governor Matt Bevin that they’re willing to vote for Democrats under certain circumstances.

“The abortion issue, especially Kentucky’s very stringent version of abortion regulation, risks offending the same voters,” Voss said.

The forecast still isn’t pretty for this year, Salzman said, as Democrats in the area fight to hold onto their two representatives, Rachel Roberts, D-Newport, and Buddy Wheatley, D-Covington. He said the most likely outcome would be that total Democratic seats in the area decrease by one.

Sen. Whitney Westerfield, R-Crofton, said that while considerations of political repercussions aren’t at the forefront of the anti-abortion movement, the proposed amendment could drive even greater conservative turnout, especially in rural parts of the state like his pocket of Southwestern Kentucky.

“The litigation over our trigger ban has made the constitutional amendment that much more important, and I think that’ll be I think it’ll be a motivating factor, particularly in the rural parts of the state if word gets out like I think it will.”

Abortion and the governor’s race

Several prominent Republicans are lining up for the chance to cement their party’s control over state government in a 2023 general election race against Beshear.

But on abortion, there’s not much daylight between the GOP’s candidates: Commissioner of Agriculture Ryan Quarles, Attorney General Daniel Cameron, Rep. Savannah Maddox, R-Dry Ridge, and Auditor Mike Harmon all say they support the abortion ban that’s on the books.

“I think that other issues will be the defining feature of the Republican primary,” Maddox said. “That said, I believe that citizens are looking for a candidate who will speak boldly… I feel that the strongest pro-life candidate will certainly have an edge.”

Though Cameron’s campaign has not responded to multiple requests for interviews over the last several weeks, he has signaled full support for the state’s abortion ban on statewide and national stages.

Beshear’s opposing stance to the Republican crowd has leaned heavily on the fact that the current law provides no exceptions for rape or incest, a provision that he believes is unpopular with Kentuckians.

When pressed for his full thoughts on the issue, Beshear ends up sounding a lot like Clinton’s famous line.

“I believe that Roe v. Wade had it generally right… This ultimately should be a rare, but legal procedure. There are reasonable restrictions that could be placed on it. I’ve always been against late-term procedures.”

Former Gov. Matt Bevin bashed Beshear over this stance. Bevin accused him accepting “blood money” from the owners of Kentucky’s only abortion clinic, arguing that Beshear was condoning the “slaughtering” of unborn children. He also made an incorrect prediction that abortions would be taking place “all over” the state under Beshear.

Quarles said that Republicans don’t necessarily need to “attack” Beshear, whose popularity remains high in the state based on the latest available polling, on that issue. He said that Beshear’s veto on recent anti-abortion legislation will speak for itself.

“I don’t think there’s a line of attack, it’s just a fact that Kentucky is generally a pro-life state, and that it’s about protecting life,” Quarles said. “Pro-life issues will play a big role in the 2023 governor’s race, but it’s going to be one of many that highlights the fact that at the sheer antagonizes and does not get along with the legislature.”

Across the state

Sen. Karen Berg, D-Louisville, said that many anti-abortion voters haven’t fully reckoned with the extent of the state’s abortion ban.

“Pro-life, anti-choice Republican women that I’m talking to at the doors refuse to even believe that the laws that we pass here recently in Kentucky, have no exception for rape or incest,” Berg recalled. “They, they’re like, ‘no, that’s not possible.’ And I’m like, ‘oh yes, that’s very possible.’”

Berg’s star rose in the national pro-abortion rights movement when she gave a stirring speech against a proposed 15-week abortion ban that was wrapped into the latest omnibus abortion bill. She gained several thousand followers on social media and collected over $69,000 in one fundraising window – from donors far and wide, including Hollywood actors Heather Thomas and Bradley Whitford.

Right now, Berg emphasized the need to organize against the constitutional amendment.

“We will lose our judicial recourse,” she warned, adding that while anti-abortion organization has been traditionally stronger in Kentucky, a win for pro-abortion rights cause on the ballot there could galvanize a greater backlash.

Indicative of the Louisville area’s more pro-abortion rights stance, if elected Berg’s general election opponent Louisville Metro Councilman James Peden would likely become the least anti-abortion GOP member of the Senate. He said he supports a 15-week ban, similar to the one in question which Berg famously railed against, but did not go so far as to say he supports a total ban.

“I feel my position on abortion is more representative of the majority of people in our community, rather than the more extreme positions on the far left and or far right,” Peden said.

A draft of House Bill 91, the bill introducing this year’s anti-abortion constitutional amendment, hangs on the wall in Daniel Fister’s office. Co-sponsoring the bill is one of his proudest achievements in a relatively short legislative career thus far.

Fister has been involved in pro-life causes since his teens, he said.

“To me it was killing babies and still is. I don’t think something magical happens when that baby comes out of the birth canal and that suddenly makes it a human being. I think it’s a human being from the very beginning,” Fister said.

In a move that likely helps Republicans in his district, Fister’s Woodford County-centric district lost an arm that previously extended into Fayette County and essentially traded it out for a chunk of Jessamine County that includes the conservative stronghold of Wilmore, home of the Christian institution Asbury University.

Vandegrift said that he wouldn’t change his views on any issue, including abortion, just to gain an electoral edge.

“All I can do is be who I am. And the truth of the matter is, people aren’t monoliths. The people of Wilmore, they don’t all think exactly alike,” Vandegrift said.

“Elections are about a lot of things, and different things affect different families differently. That’s why you have to go and you have to be willing to get in front of people and even take some criticism.”