INDIANAPOLIS — A Bill Belichick disciple profiles as one of the least likely people to inject life back into a stagnant running back contract market.
And yet the feeling at the NFL Scouting Combine is that the Texans could be the biggest offseason spenders on a free-agent running back, because their roster construction allows it within the salary cap and because influential voices within the organization could sway GM Nick Caserio to see things differently than the way that the Patriots managed the position during his 20-year tenure alongside Belichick, league sources told The Post.
“We’re all going to find out,” Caserio said when asked what he foresees for running backs. “Free agency is, ‘What does the market tell you?’ And what are you willing to pay that player commensurate with their role? It’s all about resource allocation.”
Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Austin Ekeler and Tony Pollard headline a free-agent class that runs deep with former starters.
It is possible that group of former All-Pros, Pro Bowlers and touchdown leaders reverses the bottoming-out that happened last offseason — when no running back signed a multiyear extension with more than $13.5 million guaranteed, and Barkley, Jacobs and Pollard were stuck on franchise tags.
It also is possible that an oversupply to meet the league-wide demand further devalues the position.
“I don’t know that a few years ago I would have thought that the position didn’t rise as much as other positions in the market,” Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah said. “Just because they’re a lower-value position right now doesn’t mean they don’t provide a great impact to a team. All it does is take one team, one deal, to reset a market and change things.”
Running backs are hoping that breakthrough deal happened in October, when the Colts re-signed Jonathan Taylor to a three-year, $42 million extension, including $26.5 million guaranteed.
General manager Chris Ballard wasn’t naive then to the saturation of free-agent running backs who would be available beginning March 11, but he chose to keep Taylor after a tense negotiation.
“You pay good players,” Ballard said. “Our history has shown we want to keep ‘our guy’ — plus he’s a talented guy. Always the preference is to take care of your own people first.”
Will the Giants think that way with Barkley? General manager Joe Schoen name-dropped Zack Moss and Devin Singletary — two former Bills draft picks from his tenure as assistant general manager — as examples of free-agent depth, even though neither back’s best season approaches Barkley’s average season when healthy.
Will the Raiders, Titans, Chargers or Chargers value re-signing their own free agent? Or is a game of musical chairs about to happen?
“I don’t think any of the top free agents will match or pass Taylor’s contract,” one agent told The Post. “They are all older and most have more mileage on their bodies.”
No one has more carries — or was more productive last season — than Henry. But he fits a fewer collection of teams because of his power skill set, sources say.
“I don’t have a crystal ball, but I would expect similar [to last offseason],” Bills general manager Brandon Beane said about the market. “I just think it’s a passing league … so those backs that can run out of the backfield but can also be a mismatch in the passing game are going to have more value than your traditional, old-school, three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust running back.”
A second agent pointed out that if Barkley, for example, secures a deal like the one projected by Pro Football Focus — three years, $36 million, including $20 million guaranteed — then he can rest assured with victorious peace of mind when combined with his $10.1 million franchise tag.
It would mean no less than $30.1 million guaranteed over 2023-25, which is more than he would’ve received if he accepted the Giants’ best offer last July.
The Texans are in a position to pay a running back because quarterback C.J. Stroud, and receivers Nico Collins and Tank Dell are on cost-controlled rookie contracts.
The Patriots ranked toward the bottom of the NFL in running back spending for most of Belichick’s tenure and took a many-hands approach — instead of one premier feature back — when their running back spending increased to top-seven league-wide during Caserio’s final three seasons, according to spotrac.com.
“Running back is a tricky one,” Cardinals general manager Monti Ossenfort said. “When I was a kid I collected baseball cards, and every month I’d buy the Beckett card monthly and I’d open it up and take it to my dad and say, ‘Oh, I got this card and it’s worth this much.’ And my dad’s response was like, ‘No, it’s worth whatever somebody’s willing to pay you for it.’”
The values will be out soon.
