How the drought hit WA’s farms, forests, fisheries and drinking water

Virtually every aspect of life in Washington suffered during last year’s drought. Groundwater wells ran dry, fields produced fewer crops, trees died in greater numbers, fish faced disease and famine, according to a study from the University of Washington’s Climate Impacts Group. 

Now those sectors are bracing for yet another poor water year as El Niño conditions, compounded by climate change, produced well-below-normal snowpack. The state also his recently hit record high temperatures for this time of year. 

The state’s water woes will continue, even worsen, in the decades ahead, said Karin Bumbaco, interim state climatologist and one of the study’s authors.

The Climate Impacts Group study, the fourth of its kind, underscores the need for scientists to gather even more data, which would help cities, farms, utilities and scientists better prepare for the inevitable, she said. The group is a collection of scientists with expertise on natural, physical and social disciplines, which aims to help the Pacific Northwest better understand and adapt to climate change.

One of the first things to understand, Bumbaco said, is that drought is more nuanced than you might think.

“People tend to think of drought as just less rain than usual but there’s a huge temperature component,” Bumbaco said. 

Warming temperatures mean precipitation that once fell as snow will increasingly fall as rain (in turn creating water shortages). They also lead to drying soils, which worsen the region’s water deficit and exacerbate heat waves, Bumbaco said.

Washington actually saw a relatively normal snowpack in the early months of 2023, but a heat wave in May forced an early melt-off and sank the state into drought conditions, Bumbaco said. 

State officials declared a drought emergency across 12 Washington counties, local communities faced voluntary and mandatory water restrictions, utilities suffered from poor hydropower generation (shooting electrical bills upward) and the sudden melt-off sent the state’s sweet cherry growers into an early harvest, causing perhaps $100 million in losses.

For an even greater overview of the drought’s effects across Washington, the Climate Impacts Group surveyed scores of officials across different sectors. And an overwhelming majority of those who responded said they experienced some sort of harm. 

Of the 36 respondents in the drinking water sector, 34 reported suffering from abnormally dry conditions, the report says. This includes voluntary water conservation (54%), low streamflows and less surface water (47%), declining groundwater levels (41%) and lower-than-normal reservoir levels (27%). 

“Wells of three water associations west of Ferndale went dry, additional domestic and agricultural wells went dry in other locations across the county,” one unnamed Whatcom County respondent said, according to the report. 

Of the 19 respondents in the agricultural sector, all but one suffered abnormally dry conditions, the report says. This includes increased plant stress (61%), increased water demand due to low soil moisture (50%), less surface water and low stream flows (44%), reduced crop yield (39%) and reduced pasture forage (39%). 

“Hay yield was down 60%,” another respondent said. 

All of the 13 forestry respondents felt the drought, the report says. This includes greater tree mortality (73%), leaf or needle drop or scorched/sparse canopy (55%) and more disease and insect damage (36%). 

Each of these conditions increases wildfire risk as well. 

Thirteen fisheries participated in the survey. They reported reduced streamflow (92%), warmer stream temperatures (69%), blocked fish passages (62%) and poor water quality because of low flows (39%). 

The survey’s results aren’t comprehensive, Bumbaco noted, as most respondents participated because they wanted to report damage. Still, taken together, the conditions reported describe a state, its people, infrastructure and environment experiencing concrete harm because of last year’s drought, Bumbaco said. 

If last year’s snowpack was about average, this year’s is much worse. Conditions are particularly dry across Puget Sound and in the upper and central Columbia Basin. But the Olympic Peninsula and Lower Yakima Basin are the driest in the state, hovering at 57% and 58% of normal snowpack, respectively. 

Scott Revell, who manages the Roza Irrigation District in the Yakima Basin, said his organization had been given an initial forecast to expect 72% of their normal water supply but he thinks it will drop further in the coming weeks. 

To play it safe, Revell and the district are budgeting to see 60% of its normal water supply. 

In practice, water in such short supply means farmers must plant different crops, fallow their fields, lease water rights from more senior operations and lean on water transfers, Revell said. 

Farmers in the district grow a wide variety of crops including hops, wine grapes, apples and berries. They always plan for the worst-case scenario, Revell said, because droughts can be difficult to predict. 

“It’s like a slow-motion train wreck,” he said. 

Not since 2015 has Washington’s snowpack fallen so far below normal and already officials are murmuring about the likelihood of water restrictions, particularly on the Olympic Peninsula.

At least half of the respondents to the Climate Impacts Group survey indicated they’re changing their long-term operations to cope with more frequent and intense drought conditions. 

These changes include planting drought-resistant crops, not planting at all, storing more water in reservoirs, and coordinating irrigation tactics to keep stream flows high for fish.