Analysis

How Trump’s trial is playing, politically

A new poll provides some of the best hints yet.

By Aaron BlakeApril 26, 2024
Analysis

How would you narrow Trump’s VP shortlist? Take this quiz.

Take this quiz and see which people you think Donald Trump could pick to be the Republican vice presidential nominee. The Fix’s Aaron Blake offers his analysis.

By Aaron Blake, Adrián Blanco, Nick Mourtoupalas and Artur GalochaApril 26, 2024
Analysis

Kavanaugh says ‘most people’ now revere the Nixon pardon. Not so fast.

It might have been true at one point. It’s not so clear it is anymore -- particularly as another former president stands accused of his own dirty tricks.

By Aaron BlakeApril 25, 2024
Analysis

The right starts to reckon with its Marjorie Taylor Greene problem

The party elevated her when it helped Kevin McCarthy win the speakership 15 months ago — despite plenty of reasons to worry about that. Now the bill has come due.

By Aaron BlakeApril 24, 2024
Analysis

How Pecker’s testimony bolsters claims of Trump’s election-related scheme

Breaking down former National Enquirer executive David Pecker’s testimony Tuesday, and its meaning to the Trump hush money case.

By Aaron BlakeApril 24, 2024
Analysis

Trump claims 200 million Americans ‘love’ him. How many actually do?

A deep dive on this actually quite relevant question. (Spoiler: It’s a fraction of 200 million.)

By Aaron BlakeApril 23, 2024
Analysis

Trump’s numerous attempts to play the victim on ‘election interference’

Trump calls his prosecutions “election interference.” Most of his major scandals and indictments are based on exactly that -- and much more substantially so.

By Aaron BlakeApril 22, 2024
Analysis

Biden’s polls improve as Kennedy and third-party factor shifts

Two new high-quality polls show Robert F. Kennedy Jr. taking more votes from Trump than Biden. And they’re not the only polls to suggest a changing dynamic.

By Aaron BlakeApril 22, 2024
Analysis

The politics of the swiftly dismissed Mayorkas impeachment trial

Republicans will argue that Democratic senators dispensing with the trial of the homeland security secretary shows they aren’t serious about the border. But they were again undercut by their own.

By Aaron BlakeApril 17, 2024
Analysis

Trump’s increasing court outbursts come with increasing risks — for all

Donald Trump’s interjections have featured in every one of his major legal cases, and they show no sign of abating. But a scene Tuesday indicates how the stakes are increasing.

By Aaron BlakeApril 17, 2024
Analysis

Most reject Trump’s claims of persecution. Some still have concerns.

Polls show Americans generally regard the charges against Trump as appropriate and even think he’s a criminal. But as many as half are concerned about fairness and the role of politics.

By Aaron BlakeApril 16, 2024
Analysis

Half of prospective Trump jurors said they can’t be impartial. What does it mean?

Trump and allies are claiming this shows how slanted the Manhattan jury pool is. Experts say it’s less surprising, in context.

By Aaron BlakeApril 16, 2024
Analysis

Trump’s rhetoric on thwarting Iran vs. his record

Trump and his allies are increasingly claiming very bad things wouldn’t have happened on his watch. Iran’s attacking Israel isn’t a great example.

By Aaron BlakeApril 15, 2024
Analysis

The danger for Trump in hush money case: Refreshing people’s memories

Americans regard the charges as less serious than those in his other cases. But they’re also set to be reminded of something they’ve overwhelmingly found problematic -- and might have forgotten about.

By Aaron BlakeApril 15, 2024
Analysis

The bad talking point comparing student loan forgiveness to PPP loans

Supporters of student debt relief have pointed to Republicans having their own loans forgiven by the government. The comparison isn’t apples to apples.

By Aaron BlakeApril 12, 2024
Analysis

Arizona and Florida will fix abortion bans, Trump predicts. Not so fast.

Trump wants to wash his hands of these bans. It’s hardly so simple.

By Aaron BlakeApril 11, 2024
Analysis

Trump’s telling comment on punishing doctors who provide abortions

The Republican Party needs leadership on abortion. Trump is so frightened of it that he’s liable to just create more problems.

By Aaron BlakeApril 10, 2024
Analysis

Why Trump’s ‘hush money’ case is bigger than hush money

The judge in the case Monday reinforced that this is also about whether Trump’s actions “unlawfully influence[d]” the election. Here’s what we can say about the impact.

By Aaron BlakeApril 9, 2024
Analysis

Can Republicans even run on abortion anymore?

Some true believers say they can and they should. The evidence is less convincing.

By Aaron BlakeApril 9, 2024
Analysis

The increasingly authoritarian-curious Republican Party

Multiple polls show the GOP wants a president who is less answerable to Congress and the courts. And, as notably, very few strongly object to that.

By Aaron BlakeApril 8, 2024