While San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo has locked in his place in the November general election in the race to replace U.S. Rep. Anna Eshoo, Assemblymember Evan Low continues to close the gap on Santa Clara County Supervisor Joe Simitian for the second spot.
On Monday night, the Associated Press called the race for Liccardo, who has maintained a healthy lead since election night over his 10 competitors for the District 16 congressional seat. But with thousands of ballots still left to be counted in Santa Clara and San Mateo counties, it’s unclear who he’ll face off with later this year.
Simitian, who has been eyeing a congressional run for years, has been losing ground to Low over the last week and as of Tuesday afternoon was in second place by 162 votes, according to the latest results from the Secretary of State’s Office. The county supervisor has performed well in San Mateo County, where he represented some of the area when he was a state senator.
But late mail-in ballots counted in Santa Clara County have trended more towards Low, whose Assembly district includes Sunnyvale, Cupertino, Santa Clara and parts of north and west San Jose.
San Jose State University political science professor emeritus Larry Gerston said that while we are still learning the “psychology of mail-in votes,” the demographic of late mail-in voters tends to be young voters and people less engaged in the political process.
This could swing in Low’s favor he said if those voters are “moving toward someone who is more sensitive to social issues such as gay rights and minority representation.” However, the remaining votes, Gerston countered, could very well swing toward Simitian because he is better known in parts of the district — particularly in the northern part of Santa Clara County and in San Mateo County.
At this stage in the counting, the local political analyst said that “forecasting a winner is very dangerous.” Gerston called the margin between the two a “blink of an eyelash,” and predicted that the second winner won’t be declared until the end of this week or early next week.
As of Tuesday morning, Santa Clara County had 52,000 ballots left to count, while San Mateo County had 43,550 uncounted as of Monday afternoon. Not all of those ballots, however, will factor into the race.
In a statement, Low said that “no matter the ultimate outcome, the closeness of this race shows that your vote truly matters. Your vote can have a real impact on who represents your community.”
Simitian declared victory on election night, stating that he was “entirely confident” he was heading to the runoff because the “margin is wide enough.”
In an interview Tuesday afternoon, the county supervisor restated the assurance he has in his lead.
“We have a healthy margin given 11 candidates,” he said. “I have been in the top two since election night when the results were reported and have been in the top two every day.”
With the results yet to be finalized a week after the election, he said that it is an “important reminder that every vote counts and every vote must be counted.”
After cementing his spot in the top two, Liccardo told The Mercury News that he is “grateful” that his “message has resonated with voters — that we need to get Congress moving to address the daily challenges of our community, ranging from homelessness to childcare costs and utility bills.”
The former mayor said he looks forward to connecting more with residents in the district since most candidates kicked off their campaigns last year following Eshoo’s November announcement that she’d be retiring after more than three decades in Congress.
The 16th district has roughly 735,000 residents in a large swath of land that stretches from Pacifica in the north to Los Gatos in the south.
“That requires me and whoever the other candidate is to be in a lot of places, doing a lot of listening and to be building a lot of very unique networks of people who may not typically be connected as we think about a rural coast side community and Palo Alto in the heart of Silicon Valley,” Liccardo said of the upcoming challenges of the race.
