Turkey's local vote a test for Erdogan and rival

STORY: Turkey will hold local elections on Sunday (March 31) - with President Tayyip Erdogan’s AK Party (AKP) aiming to reclaim major cities lost in 2019.

But this vote marks a major test for the president and all eyes are on Istanbul.

Analysts see the city’s vote as a nationwide gauge of Erdogan's support and the opposition's durability.

Either reinforce Erdogan's control after two decades running Turkey, or signal change in the country's deeply divided political landscape.

In Istanbul, AKP’s Murat Kurum is challenging the opposition CHP’s biggest hope for the future, Ekrem Imamoglu.

A tight race between the two candidates is expected - and Erdogan has responded to the potential threat.

"Some people came up who are holding us back not to win but just to make us lose. You know who they are, right? What are you doing holding us back? Okay, then who is going to win when we lose? Of course the single-party fascist CHP and the pro-Kurdish DEM Party, which has become its official partner."

Istanbul is home to more than 16 million people and drives more than a quarter of the nation's GDP…

Controlling big cities and their budgets can give parties say over financing, contracts and job creation, boosting their popularity on the national stage.

In the last local vote in 2019, CHP shocked Erdogan by winning Istanbul and the country’s capital Ankara…

Ending more than two decades of rule by Erdogan’s party and its Islamist predecessors.

Should Imamoglu win a second mayoral term, analysts say he would very likely run in the next presidential vote.

Many of Turkey's Kurds are set to put aside party loyalty and back him on Sunday, which pollsters say could swing the results.

Pro-Kurdish DEM party voters were pivotal to Imamoglu's mayoral win in 2019…

And now, they are split on how best to advance the cause of minority Kurdish rights.

If Erdogan’s party regains Istanbul, analysts, like Murat Yetkin, say it would bolster his pursuit of a new constitution that could potentially extend his rule beyond 2028.

"In 2019, when Erdogan and AK Party lost Istanbul, it was a big blow and it was a scratch on Erdogan's reputation that up until then he was unbeatable, invincible. So, this is going to be a test for him now, whether he will succeed to get Istanbul back and if he does so, that means that he will be able to extend, endorse his power."