5 Mistakes People Still Make With Weather Forecasts

I write about many topics. They are usually related to weather or climate. My posts explore complexities of meteorology, the challenges associated with climate change, and broader science literacy topics. My discussion herein was inspired by a public lecture that I gave over the weekend (more on that later). Here are five mistakes that people still make with weather forecasts.

Weather Apps Are Not Magic Fairy Tools

I think back to those nights slipping into my kids’ room to be the tooth fairy. To them, a dollar magically appeared under their pillow. At the aforementioned public talk, I mentioned that a good amount of the information and data going into weather apps come from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration or the National Weather Service. An audience member came up to me and admitted that they did not realize that various observations, forecasts, radar displaces and satellite imagery were from such federal sources.

Over the years, weather apps have become ubiquitous and the information of choice for many people. They are convenient and present information that aligns with our digital attention spans. Complex information synthesized from computer modes, AI algorithms, observations and so forth become icons or emojis. That data have to come from somewhere, and it is not the weather fairy. While many apps use other private and public sector data sources, too, NWS data and models are certainly in the mix. Weather app providers often add their proprietary “secret sauce” but underneath it all, there are the data. As time goes on, many private providers are collecting their own data and even running their own forecast models, but a massive amount of data (weather balloons, radars, satellite products, and observations) is still coming from sources like NWS, ECMWF, NASA, NOAA, and even private sources. The apps are not autonomous bots sticking their “virtual” fingers into the wind.

James Spann is a legendary meteorologist at ABC 33/40 in Birmingham, Alabama. He once wrote about the “Crap App dilemma. He said, “Weather apps are very good, very bad, and often a sore subject among professional meteorologists.” Apps are useful for many situations, but they have limitations, too. I am particularly weary of them in rapidly evolving weather situations, and quality can certainly vary from one app to the next one. Consume them wisely but not exclusively. Hopefully, one day the National Weather Service will enter the app space, but I am keenly aware of the policy complexities and concerns about stifling private innovation. Let’s figure it out.

The Space And Time Limitations

There are still people who think I can tell them if it is going to rain three weeks from now over their beefsteak tomato plant on their deck. Aravind Ravichandran is the founder of TerraWatch Space Advisory. Writing on LinkedIn about improvements in weather forecasting, he says, “This is a revolution that nobody ever talks about, one that saved millions of lives and billions in economic damage (partly due to satellites). He goes on to write a very informative blog on the weather enterprise and how it operates. It is worth your time.

The success of weather forecasting has created challenges. Scientific research and the work of noted scholar Ed Lorenz has repeatedly found that there are limitations on forecasts. A Penn State University study (2019) found that limit to be around 10 days, so beware of those “wannabe” viral social media posts about hurricanes and snowstorms. There is guidance in longer range information but not gospel.

Additionally, space scales of current models are improving but still are not at the level of my tomato example. To use a camera analogy, the more megapixels a camera phone has, the better the picture is likely to be. With weather models, denser gridpoints (and observations) enable better assessment of the weather processes at local to regional scales. Yes, forecasts have improved. Yes, you probably are biased by remembering the less frequent “bad” forecasts and not the the more common “good” forecasts. Yes, it may still rain if the forecast is “20% chance.” I say all of this to urge calibration in expectations before insulting your friendly neighborhood meteorologist (or app).

Your Reference Points Are Shifting

For years, my dad lived in Melbourne, Florida. During hurricane season, he would rarely evacuate when I told him that a particular storm was coming. He would often utter the same thing many other people do: “I lived through storm X or Y, I will be okay for this one.” People often have benchmark or reference events in their minds like Camille, Katrina, Sandy, the Dust Bowl, and so on. However, the National Climate Assessment and virtually every other credible study or report tells us that extreme events are changing. Rapid intensification (Hurricane Michael), multiple-day deluges (Harvey), or deadly heatwaves in strange places (U.S. Pacific Northwest or London, England) are challenging benchmarks. The reference event that informs your risk preparation or evacuation decision may be obsolete.

It’s New To You But Not Necessarily New

You probably are now familiar with terms like atmospheric river, polar vortex, derecho, bomb or cyclone. Some of you may draw the conclusion that they are new terms or phenomena. However, most of those terms have been in the meteorological community for many years, even decades. The combination of social media, immediate access to news and images, and changing weather extremes have likely elevated the “in your face” factor, but they have been with us. The Glossary of the American Meteorological Society is a good source for exploring the fascinating terms in our wonderful field.

The fifth mistake does not need a heading. It’s simple. Please keep your wireless emergency alert system on. It could save your life.