US Presidential election 2024: Biden has a 1 point lead over Trump, Reuters/Ipsos poll shows, but many voters undecided

The Reuters/Ipsos poll found 39% of registered voters would vote for Biden, a Democrat, if the election were held today, compared with 38% who picked Trump
Many remain undecided, with 11% saying they would vote for other candidates, 5% saying they would not vote, and 7% saying they did not know or did not answer

US Presidential Election 2024

Reuters

Published: 6:37pm, 14 Mar 2024

Why you can trust SCMP

US President Joe Biden had a marginal 1 percentage point lead over Donald Trump ahead of the November presidential election as each candidate secured enough support from their parties to appear on the ballot, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll found.

Some 39 per cent of registered voters in the one-week poll, which closed on Wednesday, said they would vote for Biden, a Democrat, if the election were held today, compared with 38 per cent who picked Republican former President Trump. Biden’s lead was within the survey’s 1.8 percentage point margin of error.

Many voters remain undecided, with 11 per cent saying they would vote for other candidates, 5 per cent saying they would not vote, and 7 per cent saying they did not know or refusing to answer.

Biden-Trump sequel: a look at US presidential rematches through history

Both candidates carry significant liabilities in the first US presidential election rematch in nearly 70 years, with voters concerned about Biden’s age – 81 – and Trump’s coming four criminal trials, including on charges of trying to overturn his 2020 election defeat.

The poll, which surveyed adults nationwide, included many ways to measure support for Biden and Trump, 77, and most pointed to a close race.

Trump had a marginal lead among all respondents, but Biden’s lead among registered voters was significant because people who are already registered to vote are more likely to do so in November. Only two-thirds of eligible voters turned out in the 2020 presidential election in which Biden defeated Trump.

In the seven states where the election was closest in 2020, a group that could again prove pivotal in November, Trump led Biden 40 per cent to 37 per cent among registered voters. While nationwide surveys give important signals on who America will vote for, just handful of competitive states typically tilt the balance in the US electoral college, the ultimate decider in presidential elections.

37:07

What if Trump wins?

With many voters unenthused by either Trump or Biden, the new poll showed independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jnr backed by 15 per cent of registered voters should he appear as a third candidate on the ballot, down from 17 per cent in a January survey.

It appeared that Kennedy could siphon similar shares of votes from Trump and Biden. When poll respondents were asked to choose between Trump and Biden without any other options, Biden led 50 per cent to 48 per cent among registered voters, with 2 per cent refusing to answer the question.

While Trump easily defeated former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley in the Republican Party’s party nominating contest, clinching enough delegates on Tuesday to be the party’s candidate, he has vulnerabilities among independents and even within his own party.

Biden, Trump clinch nominations, kicking off US presidential rematch

Only about 37 per cent of Haley’s supporters plan to vote for Trump now that she has dropped out of the Republican contest, the poll found. Some 16 per cent said they would vote for Biden and the rest said they would vote for someone else or not vote at all.

Following a controversial ruling by a conservative court in Alabama that the frozen embryos used in fertility treatments should be considered children, the new poll showed only a quarter of registered voters agreed with that view, while 57 per cent disagreed and the rest were unsure.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll collected responses online nationwide from 4,094 US adults, including 3,356 registered voters. It had a margin of error of 1.8 per cent for registered voters and 1.7 per cent for all respondents.