MIAMI — If the Miami Heat can defy the history of the league for a second consecutive year, making a deep run into the playoffs from the seventh or eighth seed, Jimmy Butler will have to be the biggest reason yet again.
Butler had massive clutch moments as the Heat made the NBA Finals last season, and has a reputation as one of the best playoff performers in basketball. It is well earned, but his regular-season numbers dipped this year, and he shot just 18 of 52 in clutch moments — with the Heat trailing or leading by five or fewer points in the final five minutes. He and his team had issues managing the clock late in games, too. The Heat had a minus-13.5 net rating in clutch situations this season. Forget playoff teams; the only worse such teams this season were the Detroit Pistons and Washington Wizards, winners of 29 games between them.
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If you want to zero in on just the 7-8 Play-In Tournament game between the Heat and the Philadelphia 76ers on Wednesday, Bam Adebayo becomes the most important player. His ability to defend Joel Embiid, who may or may not be significantly compromised by a knee injury, while helping keep Tyrese Maxey from the rim will be huge.
Ten months later, however, the supporting roles played during that Heat run have maybe been lost to time. Caleb Martin doing a decent impression of an elite two-way swingman was the most memorable of the bunch, as he raised his shooting splits of 46.4 percent from the field, 35.6 percent from 3 and 80.5 from the free-throw line in the regular season to 52.9/42.3/82.9 in the playoffs. In hindsight, that he averaged 12.7 points per game in the run seems impossible. With Tyler Herro out of the lineup after the first game of the playoffs and Kyle Lowry firmly in conductor mode, Martin’s was the essential ancillary performance of the run.
Martin is still around, but there are new faces among the potential playoff heroes, though. Rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr. tops the list. He took on a smaller offensive role after the Heat flipped Lowry for Terry Rozier III, and it is questionable where he fits in the pecking order if the Heat are fully healthy. Jaquez topped 30 minutes in Miami’s final two games of the season, both against the hapless Toronto Raptors. It was the first time he surpassed that mark since March 18. However, he shot 13 of 27 (48.1 percent) in those games, got to the free-throw line 11 times and added 14 assists to just one turnover. Jaquez gives the Heat some much-needed athleticism and size, especially on the wing.
https://t.co/4jmL8feSRt pic.twitter.com/bNk29jggBK
— Miami HEAT (@MiamiHEAT) April 14, 2024
“I just mentioned something to him in the locker room after the game, that he looked like himself from early in the season,” Erik Spoelstra said Sunday. “He has legs under him. He’s healthy. I think he has a clear mind.
“We need his offensive production. We need him getting downhill and his post-ups. We need him creating something in those possessions where we get a little bit jammed up and he creates something out of nothing. You can see where he’s improved. His passing is improved, his playmaking. We need all of that at this time of year.”
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Rozier is another wild card, a player who was in Charlotte long enough that his playoff moments early in his career — remember “Scary Terry” and Drew Bledsoe showing up to cheer him on in his battle with Eric Bledsoe? — have faded to the background. Rozier has not played a playoff game in almost five years.
A backcourt with Rozier and Herro presents some considerable defensive questions, but it would also go a long way to address some of the intrinsic offensive shortcomings the Heat have. Rozier’s speed and burst are particularly important qualities the Heat lack elsewhere. Due to the timing of Herro’s back injury, the pair only played 188 minutes over 11 games with each other, with the Heat struggling defensively relative to their usual numbers.
Rozier missed the last four games of the season with a neck injury, as did Duncan Robinson — another unlikely hero from last season — with a back injury. Robinson rediscovered his form in the playoffs after a disastrous 2022-23 regular season, shooting 44.2 percent from 3 on the run. That performance has carried over into his best regular season since he broke out in 2019-20.
Robinson was a shade under 40 percent from deep this year, starting more than half of his games. He looked far more effective as a cutter and even a secondary playmaker than ever before. He had an assist percentage of 15.1 this year, never having reached double digits before. Spoelstra would not commit regarding Robinson’s or Rozier’s availability on Wednesday.
Finally, there’s second-year player Nikola Jović, who ended up starting 38 of his 46 games this year because of the Heat’s barrage of injuries. Miami had a plus-7.8 net rating when he was on the floor, the highest mark of any regular with the team for the whole season. His defensive rebounding, playmaking and 3-point shooting all popped this year, making him an important connective piece for the team.
If the Heat are near full health, he will mostly serve as a floor-spacer. If not, he can adapt his game to take on more responsibility, all while giving them more size next to Adebayo.
That's 3️⃣ triples for Niko tonight 👌
We lead 83-70 with 2:52 left in Q3. Tune in on Bally Sports Sun 📺 pic.twitter.com/vyIRkLll03
— Miami HEAT (@MiamiHEAT) April 13, 2024
“This is his opportunity, (and) he’s taking full advantage of it,” Adebayo said Sunday. “He’s being aggressive. He’s figuring out how to space the floor, how to cut, really reading the game. I feel like it’s one of those things where (when) you get enough minutes, the game starts to slow down for you. I feel like it slowed down for him a lot.”
(Photo Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Megan Briggs / Getty Images)
