Colts NFL mock draft analysis: What Dane Brugler got right and where he might have gone wrong

COLUMBIA, SOUTH CAROLINA - OCTOBER 14: Ricky Pearsall #1 of the Florida Gators reacts after scoring a touchdown in the second half of the game against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Williams-Brice Stadium on October 14, 2023 in Columbia, South Carolina. (Photo by Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images)
By James Boyd
Apr 18, 2024

Dane Brugler, The Athletic’s NFL Draft guru, is back in the lab.

One week after publishing his all-encompassing draft guide, “The Beast,” Brugler released his 32-team seven-round mock draft. Given his deep knowledge of thousands of prospects, I’m inclined to think Brugler’s educated guesses are about as good as anyone’s. But of course, mock drafts are always subjective and always an adventure.

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Dane Brugler's 7-round 2024 NFL mock draft: Predicting all 257 picks

On this adventure, Brugler kept it pretty conservative for the Indianapolis Colts with no trades. That’s probably my biggest critique of his approach because Indianapolis general manager Chris Ballard has a history of trading back in the draft, so it’s hard for me to see him staying put in all seven rounds.

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For now, the Colts have one pick in each round of next week’s draft, so let’s take a look at the seven players Brugler thinks could be headed to Indy.

(Note: Brugler did not include an explanation for every pick.)

First round

Pick No. 15: Toledo CB Quinyon Mitchell | 6 feet, 195 pounds

This would be a slam dunk pick for the Colts, especially if Georgia tight end Brock Bowers and Alabama cornerback Terrion Arnold are already off the board, as they were in Brugler’s mock draft. Indy still needs to add one more starting-caliber cornerback to play alongside veteran Kenny Moore II and 2023 second-round pick JuJu Brents, and Mitchell could fill that void.

Mitchell was a star at Toledo, recording 44 pass breakups and six interceptions over his final two college seasons. His physicality, speed and high IQ usually give him the upper hand in coverage. The 22-year-old also participated in the Senior Bowl and has a great RAS (relative athletic score) of 9.75 out of 10, which are two things Ballard has coveted in prospects.

Brugler’s breakdown: “It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Colts go with a dynamic pass catcher at No. 15, especially if Bowers is still available. But Mitchell is an ideal fit, too, considering his tape, on-ball production and traits.”

Other players still available: LSU WR Brian Thomas Jr., Florida State edge Jared Verse, Iowa CB Cooper DeJean

Second round

Pick No. 46: Florida WR Ricky Pearsall | 6-1, 191 pounds

Similar to my mock draft, Brugler predicted the Colts would select a wide receiver in the second round. I like the concept, considering how deep this wideout class is, according to Ballard, but I’m not high on Pearsall’s fit.

Let’s start with the positives, though. Pearsall played with Colts QB Anthony Richardson for one season at Florida, so he’d be a familiar face. Pearsall also boasts exceptional body control that allows him to make big-time catches. He has great hands, with just six drops in his five-year college career, and his 9.90 RAS is certainly enticing.

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Here’s where I see the downside: He lined up in the slot on 62 percent of his snaps over his last two seasons at Florida, and though he can play outside, I’m not sold on how effective he would be in that role in the NFL. Indianapolis already has a good, young slot receiver in Josh Downs, so I wonder if bringing Pearsall in would be too much overlap. Pearsall also turns 24 in September, and at his age, it’s fair to question how much upside he still has.

Brugler’s breakdown: “There is a good chance the Colts get a pass catcher in Round 1. If they don’t (like in this scenario), reuniting Pearsall with Richardson in the second round makes a lot of sense. Pearsall can line up across the formation in (coach) Shane Steichen’s scheme.”

Other players still available: Washington State S Jaden Hicks, Oregon WR Troy Franklin, Michigan WR Roman Wilson

Third round

Pick No. 82: Texas Tech safety Dadrion Taylor-Demerson | 5-10, 197 pounds

The Colts’ safety room is in flux right now. Julian Blackmon, who re-signed with the Colts in free agency, will likely start at strong safety after having a career year in 2023, but the starting free safety spot is up for grabs. Taylor-Demerson would certainly add some intriguing competition to the mix, as he’d battle 2022 seventh-round pick Rodney Thomas II and 2022 third-round Nick Cross for the role.

I’m not a huge fan of this pick, either. I wouldn’t spend a third-round pick on a safety, and definitely not on one who is undersized. Despite his stature, Taylor-Demerson was a solid player at Texas Tech with 12 pass breakups and four interceptions last year. However, if Ballard selects him, I’d honestly think it wasn’t him but an impostor who made the pick. That’s how much it would go against his philosophy.

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At some point, the Colts also need to decide whether Cross, 22, can be trusted as a starter. Indianapolis traded up to draft him two years ago, and there has hardly been anything to show for it. If the Colts were to pick another safety in the third round this year, that would signal to me they don’t believe in Cross or any other veteran safeties still available in free agency.

Other players still available: USC WR Brenden Rice, Notre Dame OT Blake Fisher, Washington edge Bralen Trice

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Colts mock draft: GM Chris Ballard trades back twice, still snags versatile CB in first round

Fourth round

Pick No. 117: Wisconsin G/C Tanor Bortolini | 6-4, 303 pounds

Ballard is always looking to bolster his offensive line during the draft, so this pick feels realistic. Indy returns all five of its starters from last season, but an insurance policy or two is never a bad idea. Bortolini has started a college game at every position on the offensive line except for left tackle, so he offers a lot of versatility if the Colts get in a jam. One of the biggest knocks on Bortolini is he can struggle to keep himself anchored and lose leverage, which is obviously something he’d need to improve if he plans on making an impact in the NFL.

Other players still available: TCU OT/G Brandon Coleman, Kentucky RB Ray Davis, Rice WR Luke McCaffrey

Fifth round

Pick No. 151: Purdue RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 5-11, 209 pounds

It would certainly be a full-circle moment for Tracy, an Indianapolis native and Decatur Central High alum, if his hometown Colts drafted him. He’s a tough runner with proven pass-catching and return abilities. However, Tracy can get himself into trouble with his decision-making, sometimes sacrificing a potentially solid gain for a failed home run play.

Indianapolis’ running backs are headlined by Jonathan Taylor, but with backup Zack Moss leaving for the Cincinnati Bengals in free agency, the Colts’ RB2 role hasn’t been solidified. Tracy would compete alongside Trey Sermon, Evan Hull and Tyler Goodson to potentially fill that void. Taylor has missed 13 games over the past two seasons due to injury, so it would be naive to bank on his being healthy for the entire 2024 campaign.

Other players still available: Washington LB Edefuan Ulofoshio, Louisville RB Isaac Guerendo, Boston College CB Elijah Jones

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Sixth round

No. 191 pick: Texas tech edge Myles Cole | 6-6, 278 pounds

This is a Ballard pick through and through. At this point in the draft, GMs are usually betting on traits anyway, and perhaps no GMs bet more on physical gifts than Ballard. Cole had the longest arms and wingspan of any player at the Senior Bowl, per Brugler, and paired with his relentless motor, he has shown flashes of disruptiveness. The soon-to-be 24-year-old still has a lot to learn to carve out a consistent role in the NFL, but his 9.92 RAS makes him an intriguing prospect potentially worthy of a Day 3 pick.

Other players still available: Mizzou LB Ty’Ron Hopper, Pitt WR Bub Means, Memphis RB Blake Watson

Seventh round

No. 234 pick: UCF OT Tylan Grable | 6-5, 306 pounds

This also makes a ton of sense. Ballard is always going to take a swing on traits, sometimes over production, during the latter stages of the draft because it presents little risk for a potentially great reward. Grable, who has a 9.84 RAS, possesses all of the physical gifts needed to succeed at the next level. He began his college career as a tight end in 2018 before transitioning to the offensive line in 2019. Grable has made considerable strides since then, but he’ll need to improve his technique even more if he hopes to see the field on game days at the next level.

Brugler’s breakdown: “Ballard and the Colts value raw athleticism at offensive tackle, and Grable, with his 4.95 40 and 36.5-inch vertical at 6-6, 306, certainly fits. The former tight end has yet to play his best football.”

Other players still available: Michigan TE AJ Barner, Illinois WR Isaiah Williams, Iowa edge Logan Lee

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(Photo of Ricky Pearsall: Jacob Kupferman / Getty Images)

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James Boyd

James Boyd is a Staff Writer for The Athletic covering the Indianapolis Colts. Before joining The Athletic, James was the Indiana Pacers beat writer for The Indianapolis Star. James is a graduate of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and grew up in Romeoville, Illinois. Follow James on Twitter @romeovillekid