Chrystia Freeland’s big reveal

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Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let’s get into it.

In today’s edition:

→ Liberals really want those millennial and Gen Z votes.

→ Lobbyists logged 2,404 budget-related meetings; a scorecard review.

→ How Americans see us: “Sane, solid and punching way above weight.”

DRIVING THE DAY

SPIN CITY — The budget was bad news for Canada’s 0.13 percent.

That’s the takeaway CHRYSTIA FREELAND wants Canadians talking about.

A promise to hike the inclusion rate to 66 percent from 50 on individuals, corporations and trusts that earn more than C$250,000 in capital gains annually is the runaway headline on a budget designed to court millennial and Gen Z votes.

Read more from POLITICO’s NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY: Trudeau delivers ‘Gen Z budget’

The finance department says it will only impact the 0.13 percent of Canadians who bank roughly C$1.4 million annually.

— C$19.4 billion: That’s how much additional revenue the measure is expected to draw over five years.

The hitch with the pitch is that it relies on explaining how capital gains work.

That’s a mouthful. And that’s a communications problem if you’re a government led by a leader an increasing number of Canadians don’t like.

— Priceless: Freeland’s decision to duck a question from a journalist who wanted to know if older generations have a moral obligation to pay for younger ones.

“I’m 55. I’m going to turn 56 this summer — and I certainly feel that Canadians of my generation, and older Canadians, have a desire to see younger Canadians succeed and have the opportunities we enjoy,” the DPM said at a press conference after showing up 17 minutes late.

“Older Canadians, slightly older Canadians, and older older ones — we really want younger generations to do well,” she said.

— Quick tally: Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE said his party will vote against the budget, so did Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET. Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY also said her two-person caucus will also vote against.

NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH said his party has not decided, though Bloc MP JEAN-DENIS GARON pointed out on CBC’s afternoon show that the budget was “written in orange ink.”

Other notable highlights:

→ Millennial and Gen Z bait: Thirty-year amortization periods for first-time homebuyers, a youth mental health fund, a plan to establish a right to disconnect, and a plan to tax the country’s richest to pay for social programs such as free contraceptives.

→ Return of GST/HST on face masks and face shields: Truly, a sign the acute phase of the pandemic is over when government wants its taxes on personal protective equipment.

→ Legislative change to make good on Ukraine aid: Canada has hit its C$7-billion cap on what it’s allowed to contribute to Ukraine under the Bretton Woods and Related Agreement Act. So unless the cap is increased, Ukraine won’t see C$400 million of the C$2.4 billion in new loans the prime minister promised during a trip to Kyiv in February.

→ Another Easter egg: A one-time, C$42 million cash injection for CBC/Radio-Canada.

→ Notable quotable: As the Department of Finance lifted the embargo on media in the budget lockup, a spokesman issued a directive.

What she said: “Try your best not to have a stressful evening.”

What journos heard: Everybody let loose at the Métropolitain’s budget after-party ASAP.

— Spotted at The Met afterparty: The patio and inside was jam packed with staffers and lobbyists. Real “fall of Rome” vibes, quipped one unnamed press gallery member. Cabmins in the crowd included Housing Minister SEAN FRASER, Treasury Board President ANITA ANAND, Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE, Justice Minister ARIF VIRANI, International Trade Minister MARY NG, International Development Minister AHMED HUSSEN, plus Trudeau chief of staff KATIE TELFORD, Freeland chief of staff ANDREW BEVAN, Liberal MPs MARCO MENDICINO, GEORGE CHAHAL, FRANCIS DROUIN and Tory MP GREG MCLEAN.

QUEEN STREET SCORECARD — Budget Day brings more winners than losers for Ottawa’s lobbyists. The combined asks forwarded to Freeland are staggering.

Here’s one measure: 858 organizations submitted briefs to the House finance committee.

Here’s another: Lobbyists have logged 2,404 budget-related meetings since September.

We picked three winners whose victories might’ve been overshadowed by the headlines:

→ The Canadian Chamber of Commerce may resent the government’s ratcheting up of capital gains pain, but the chamber didn’t come away winless. Ottawa pledged C$7.2 million over three years to support a “Business Data Lab” that offers real-time info and analysis that helps companies plot strategy.

→ Toronto’s Harbourfront Centre scored C$10 million over two years for “critical capital repairs.” GT and Company’s JULIE DEWOLFE is the downtown arts hub’s rep on the Hill. DeWolfe met with senior Freeland staffers twice this year.

→ Kids Help Phone, the 24/7 call service, netted C$7.5 million over three years from the Public Health Agency of Canada to support its mental health, counselling and crisis support services for young people. H+K’s JULIA PARSONS is their lobbyist.

MAKE-BELIEVE FUN: Who says being an overworked staffer comes with no rewards? The budget’s authors tucked the first names of Freeland aides into fictional case studies strewn through the bulky document.

→ Exhibit A: Director of operations SHANNON ZIMMERMAN‘s alter ego is a Swiftie who scored an access code to T-Swift’s Vancouver concert — but was foiled by a reseller who hoarded tickets and drove up prices. (Budget 2024 promises to work with provinces to crack down on nefarious resellers.)

→ Also scattered through the docs: Nods to senior policy advisers YASH NANDA and CHRISTOPHE CINQMARS-VIAU, policy advisers HANNAH WILSON, NICK MAHONEY and SARAH THOMAS, senior issues adviser ERIN WOODS, senior comms adviser and press secretary KAT CUPLINSKAS, comms adviser FIONA SAGEAU, and an assortment of their family members and partners.

Talk of the town

TAKE OFF, EH? — Bank of Canada Governor TIFF MACKLEM held up a VIOLA DESMOND tenspot and cracked a CFL joke at Tuesday’s launch of the Washington Forum on the Canadian Economy.

“As Canadians we invariably compare ourselves to Americans, and maybe it’s human nature, but we tend to focus on the differences,” Macklem said. “We’ve got different systems of government, we’re bilingual in Canada, we have three-down football, and we even have very colorful polymer banknotes.”

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair JEROME POWELL dodged a question by rhyming off a list of funny Canadians now working in the U.S.

“Top of his list: JIM CARREY,” the Royal Bank’s JOHN STACKHOUSE tweeted from the event on the sidelines of IMF and World Bank spring meetings. “Mine too.”

— Economics 101: Macklem joined Powell in a fireside chat moderated by another Canadian — former Liberal finance minister BILL MORNEAU.

The stated goal of the new forum at the Wilson Center Canada Institute: “To educate U.S. policymakers, business leaders and the public on the dynamics of the Canadian economy.”

Forum co-chair RANDAL QUARLES opened the afternoon session with notes on the importance and vitality of the Canada-U.S. relationship. You bet he mentioned the elephant.

— Quote of note: “Almost 20 percent of everything that we in the United States send abroad into this world of 8 billion people goes to the 40 million people in Canada, who are only one half of 1 percent of the world,” Quarles said. “It is the largest and most comprehensive two-way economic relationship among any two countries in the world.”

Quarles, former vice chair of the Fed, told the audience that after spending time in his career focused on international financial diplomacy he can confirm “we could always count on the Canadians being sane, solid and punching way above their weight.”

Macklem and Powell follow each other’s work, they said. The Fed chair, who nodded to the “mutually beneficial, respectful and great relationship,” said he reads the governor’s interest rate decisions.

Macklem acknowledged that Canada keeps its eyes on the U.S. “We don’t have to do what the Fed does, we can do what Canada needs,” he added. “I do think though that we’re looking at the same things and asking ourselves the same questions.”

Both bankers made news at the event: Powell dialed back expectations on interest rate cuts in the U.S.

Macklem hinted that in Canada they’re on the way.

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Where the leaders are

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will address the Liberal caucus at 10 a.m. He will also attend QP.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND will join caucus at 10 a.m. She will also be in QP.

— Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE and Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET have not released their public schedules.

— NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH will attend the NDP caucus meeting at 9:30 a.m. Later, he will participate in QP.

— Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY will participate in Parliament in person.

DULY NOTED

9:30 a.m. The Assembly of First Nations will hold a press conference in West Block to respond to the budget.

CALLED TO THE BAR — GC Strategies’ KRISTIAN FIRTH, one of the contractors on the ArriveCAN app engulfed in scandal following a scathing audit, will be called to the official Bar of the House of Commons after Question Period, to be reprimanded for failing to adequately answer MPs’ questions.

ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR

IN TORONTO TODAY — International Trade Minister MARY NG will meet her French counterpart, FRANCK RIESTER, to promote the EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA).

Ng and Riester will visit St. Lawrence Market for a photo op with vendors touched by the deal, which has been provisionally implemented since 2017. The pair will hold a presser following a closed-door bilat.

The Trudeau government is looking for more trade wins after setbacks with India and the United Kingdom.

MEDIA ROOM

— POLITICO’s ERICA ORDEN shares the whirlwind history of People v. Trump.

— From POLITICO’s JAMIE DETTMER in Kyiv: Ukraine is heading for defeat.

— The Logic’s KEVIN CARMICHAEL picks up on a budget nugget attaching STEPHEN POLOZ’s name to a new working group tasked with getting pension funds to invest more in Canada.

— Writing for the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, PHILIPPE LAGASSÉ argues that Governor General MARY SIMON‘s impartiality was undermined by hosting a symposium tied to controversial government legislation.

— The Financial Times looks at the court rulings around the world that reflect a growing recognition that governments are obliged to address carbon emissions.

— What if Trudeau resigned? PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER looks at numbers from Pallas Data that explore some what-ifs.

— POLITICO spoke with more than 30 politicians, policymakers, tech executives and outside experts to find out what impact AI will have in 2024 when more than 2 billion people head to the polls from New Delhi to Berlin and Washington. The result is Bots and Ballots, an editorial series led by POLITICO’s MARK SCOTT.

— MAX FAWCETT of The National Observer explains why Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH’s latest attempt to own the federal Liberals will cost Alberta.

PROZONE

Our latest policy newsletter for Pro subscribers from SUE ALLAN and ZI-ANN LUM: On with the show.

From POLITICO Canada: A guide to the 2024 Canadian budget.

In other news for Pro readers:

— Canada to introduce new EV supply chain investment tax credit.

— Canada unveils C$1.5B pharmacare plan.

— Canada’s Liberals double down on red ink.

— Geopolitical squabbles stymie World Bank climate action.

— Carbon markets proliferate worldwide — report.

— Feds: Nevada lithium mine would protect endangered plant.

PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: HBD to former Alberta NDP Leader RACHEL NOTLEY (60!). Historian and journalist GWYNNE DYER also celebrates today.

Birthdays, gatherings, social notices for this community: Send them our way.

Spotted: MP JULIE DABRUSIN’s birthday message to her younger self: “The biggest joy is time with your loved ones.”

Media mentions: The 2023 CAJ award finalists have been announced. Congrats to all the nominees, including Ottawa journalists JUDY TRINH, CARL MEYER, MICKEY DJURIC, STEVEN CHASE and ROBERT FIFE.

Movers and shakers: Highlights of the mid-month dump of lobbyist registry filings.

→ PIERRE POILIEVRE‘s office recently met with the Canadian Association of Wireless Internet Service Providers, Canada’s Building Trades Unions, InductEV, the Digital Media Association, the Canadian Mushroom Growers Association and the Canola Council of Canada.

→ Irving Oil posted several meetings with NINA LOTHIAN, director of climate and energy policy for Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT, and CAROLINE LEE, a senior policy adviser to Guilbeault. The maritime oil giant also met once with the minister.

→ FCA Canada, aka Stellantis, met with Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU and Liberal MP IREK KUSMIERCZYK March 14. (The PM was in Windsor, Ont., at the time.)

ON THE HILL

→ Find House committees here.

→ Keep track of Senate committees here.

— It’s caucus day on the Hill.

12 p.m. The Senate veterans affairs committee will explore veterans’ homelessness.

1 p.m. Liberal MP ALI EHSASSI will join representatives from the Rwandan, Tamil, Tigrayan, Uyghur, Hazara and Tibetan communities to mark Genocide Remembrance, Condemnation and Prevention Month. Wellington Building, room 325.

4:15 p.m. Parliamentary Budget Officer YVES GIROUX will be a witness at the Senate banking committee to take questions on the topic of alternative minimum tax and the impact on charities.

4:15 p.m. The Senate foreign affairs committee will meet to continue its look at Canada’s interests and engagement in Africa with help from eight department officials from Global Affairs Canada, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, FinDev Canada and Export Development Canada.

4:15 p.m. Bill S-15 will be up for study at the Senate legal and constitutional affairs committee.

4:30 p.m. The House foreign affairs committee will study Canada’s approach to Africa.

5 p.m. The House industry committee will hear from Rio Tinto off the top of its three-hour meeting. At 6 p.m., it will turn to Bill C-27.

6:45 p.m. The Senate Indigenous people committee will look at the implementation of the 2021 United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act.

6:45 p.m. PBO Giroux returns to the Senate to be a witness at its national finance committee to take questions on Main Estimates.

Behind closed doors: The House Indigenous and northern affairs committee will discuss its study on the restitution of land to First Nations, Inuit and Metis communities; the House veterans affairs committee will discuss their study on the experience of women veterans; the Senate ethics and conflict of interest committee will focus on a “case of privilege concerning events relating to the sitting of Nov. 9, 2023”; the Senate social affair committee will review a draft report on Canada’s temporary and migrant labor force.

We’re tracking every major political event of 2024 on a mega-calendar. Send us events and download the calendar yourself for Google and other clients .

TRIVIA

Tuesday’s answer: The first senators appointed under the Independent Advisory Board for Senate Appointments: PETER HARDER, RAYMONDÉ GAGNE, FRANCES LANKIN, CHANTAL PETITCLERC, ANDRÉ PRATTE and MURRAY SINCLAIR.

Props to NATI PRESSMAN, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, JIM CAMPBELL, MATT DELISLE, BOB GORDON, MARCEL MARCOTTE and BOB ERNEST.

Wednesday’s question: Who said this? “Constitutional revision is really a matter of adapting to changing needs and circumstances, while safeguarding stability and providing protection for guaranteed rights. Change and movement are essential signs of life.”

Bonus marks: Tell us how those words are connected to this date in history.

Answers to [email protected]

Writing Playbook tomorrow: Nick Taylor-Vaisey.

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Playbook wouldn’t happen without: Editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

Clarification: This newsletter has been updated to clarify that the proposed tax measure on capital gains in the 2024 federal budget is designed to increase the inclusion rate for certain individuals and corporations.