New Model Estimates NY Coronavirus Deaths Through December

NEW YORK — A highly cited coronavirus projection model this week released updated estimates on how the pandemic could impact New York through December.

New projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) released Thursday estimate the state's death toll from the virus will reach 33,945 by Dec. 1 — an increase of 1,189 deaths.

As of the most recent data, there have been 418,928 COVID-19 cases and 32,756 total deaths in New York since the pandemic began, according to Johns Hopkins. The IHME analysis also found that if New Yorkers consistently wear face masks, 472 lives could be saved through December.

The model, which The Washington Post has called "America's most influential coronavirus model," is created by the Seattle-based institute affiliated with the University of Washington.

IHME researchers' updated predictions indicate America’s COVID-19 death toll is expected to reach nearly 300,000 by Dec. 1. If 95 percent of the country's population consistently wear face masks, about 70,000 lives could be saved, according to the institute's data.

The coronavirus has killed more than 160,000 Americans as of Friday. Researchers said they expect 140,000 more to die from the coronavirus through Dec. 1. But there are ways to prevent some of the infections and deaths, IHME said.

“We’re seeing a rollercoaster in the United States,” IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray said. “It appears that people are wearing masks and socially distancing more frequently as infections increase, then after a while as infections drop, people let their guard down and stop taking these measures to protect themselves and others – which, of course, leads to more infections. And the potentially deadly cycle starts over again.”

Infections in hot spots of Arizona, California, Florida and Texas are easing because of a combination of local mandates on mask use and bar and restaurant closures, the report notes. But deaths are rising and will continue to rise for the next week or two, Murray said.

“The public’s behavior had a direct correlation to the transmission of the virus and, in turn, the numbers of deaths,” Murray said. “Such efforts to act more cautiously and responsibly will be an important aspect of COVID-19 forecasting and the up-and-down patterns in individual states throughout the coming months and into next year.”

IHME’s model assumes that some states will reimpose mandates — including nonessential business closures and stay-at-home orders.

Those new restrictions would need to be in place when the daily death rate reaches eight per million. As a result, the model estimates these states will need to reimpose mandates at the following time frames:

• August – Arizona, Florida, Mississippi and South Carolina.
• September – Georgia and Texas.
• October – Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina and Oregon.
• November – Alabama, Arkansas, California, Iowa, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Utah, Washington and Wisconsin.

However, if mask use is increased to 95 percent, the return of stricter mandates could be delayed six to eight weeks on average, the IHME said.

You can view the IHME's full analysis here.