Iowa at Purdue odds, picks and prediction
The Iowa Hawkeyes and Purdue Boilermakers begin their COVID-altered, Big Ten-only 2020 regular season Saturday. The Boilermakers host the 3:30 p.m. kickoff at Ross-Ade Stadium. We analyze the Iowa-Purdue college football betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Iowa at Purdue: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 6:20 p.m. ET.
- Money line : Iowa -164 (bet $164, win $100) | Purdue +135 (bet $100, win $135)
- Against the spread/ATS : Iowa -3.5 (-110) | Purdue +3.5 (-110)
- Over/Under : 51.5 (O: -115 | U: -106)
Iowa at Purdue: Three things to know
- Purdue head coach Jeff Brohm will miss this game because of a positive COVID-19 test forcing him to isolate for 10 days. Offensive coordinator Brian Brohm will be acting as head coach Saturday.
- Iowa (+2500) is tied for the sixth-best odds to win the Big Ten Conference, while Purdue (+5000) is tied for 11th out of 13 teams, ( BetMGM).
- The road team is 9-1 against the spread in the last 10 Iowa-Purdue meetings and the Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last five games at Purdue.
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Iowa at Purdue: Odds, prediction, betting lines and picks
Prediction
Iowa 35, Purdue 24
Money line (ML)
Three-year starter QB Nathan Stanley's departure to the NFL definitely hurts Iowa (-164). However, in steps redshirt sophomore QB Spencer Petras, who is an ESPN four-star recruit that will have plenty of help. The Hawkeyes return all their productive skill position players from last season, including two senior wide receivers and their leading rusher.
You already know about the head coach, but Purdue (+135) is also without star WR Rondale Moore, who will miss Saturday's game for an undisclosed reason. The Boilermakers return 73% production of unproductive 2019 defense. Football Outsiders ranked last year's Purdue defense 80th in DFEI defense, 82nd in touchdown rate and 102nd in first down rate.
All in all, Iowa will be able to move the ball and Purdue will lose a little offensive crispness. I'd rather throw this in a money line parlay, but I'd still TAKE IOWA (-164) to win.
Against the spread (ATS)
I ran into an interesting little info nugget while I was surfing Twitter for some Iowa-Purdue intel. The Hawkeyes are 21-0 straight up (plus-17.6 points per game) and on a 17-3-1 ATS (plus-10.9 ppg) run as a road favorite since late 2011 ( @BradPowers7/Twitter) .
BET IOWA -3.5 (-110). New to sports betting? A $110 bet on Iowa -3.5 (-110) pays a $100 profit if the Hawkeyes beat Purdue by four or more points.
Over/Under(O/U)
Since Purdue's defense is suspect and Iowa has talent on offense, I "LEAN" OVER 51.5 (-115). Also, the Hawkeyes lost their best defensive player from last season to the NFL- A.J. Epenesa. Furthermore, the Over is 7-2 in the Hawkeyes' last nine games as a road favorite.
A lean is not necessarily a bet. Proceed with caution.
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