GRAVE NEW WORLD: The U.S. needs to tackle the challenges of adapting artificial intelligence systems for modern warfare, the same way the “titans of industry” transformed Detroit into an “arsenal of democracy” during World War II, Defense Secretary Mark Esper said at a conference hosted by the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence.
“Mastering artificial intelligence will require similar vision, ambition and commitment,” Esper said. “We need the full force of American intellect and ingenuity working in harmony across the public and private sectors.”
Artificial Intelligence, sometimes called “machine learning,” refers to advanced computer algorithms that can use data to “learn” and therefore make choices without human input. Last week a Pentagon advisory board released proposed guidelines for the ethical deployment of AI-enabled weapons on the battlefield.
CHINA’S AI PUSH: Esper noted that China has set a goal of being the world leader in AI by 2030, and has already begun to develop autonomous vehicles, including unmanned submarines and advanced aerial drones, and is moving “aggressively to deploy them across many warfighting domains.
A GRAPHIC EXAMPLE: Esper recounted an episode from 2014, which showed how Russia is already employing AI against Ukrainian forces:
“Coming off recent successes against Russian-backed forced, the Ukrainian battalions were eagerly preparing a final push to the border. Suddenly they noticed the hum of Russian UAVs overheard, followed by cyberattacks against their command and control and communication systems immediately, after a flurry of Russian artillery rained down on then. The whole episode lasted just a few minutes, but it inflicted tremendous damage. Dozens of soldiers were killed, hundreds more were wounded, most of their armored vehicles were destroyed. The Ukrainian offensive came to a devastating halt, all in a matter of minutes.”
“The world was quickly awakened to a new era of warfare advanced by the Russians. It’s clear the threats of tomorrow are no longer the ones we have faced and defeated in the past,” Esper said. “Advances in AI have the potential to change the character of warfare for generations to come. Whichever nation harnesses AI first will have a decisive advantage on the battlefield for many, many years. We have to get there first.”
“ALGORITHMS VS. ALGORITHMS’: At the same conference, Air Force Lt. Gen. Jack Shanahan, director of the Joint Artificial Intelligence Center, predicted the next war against a near-peer competitor will be fast, chaotic and shockingly bloody.
Machines will be able to make decisions faster than higher headquarters can process, the result being the side with the better algorithms winning. Shanahan says in the future frontline troops will have to be empowered to make crucial on-the-fly decisions. Without decentralization of command, “we risk losing the fight,” he said.
PROTECTING THE VOTE: As Americans went to the polls yesterday in Virginia and Kentucky, the Pentagon along with the Justice Department, the FBI, DHS, and the U.S. Cyber Command released a joint statement on the need to “protect the democratic process” and to “defend against any threats to our democracy.”
“Election security is a top priority for the United States Government, said the statement. “We have increased the level of support to state and local election officials in their efforts to protect elections.”
Citing threats from cyber attacks as well as social media disinformation campaigns from Russia, China, Iran, and other “foreign malicious actors,” the agencies promised an “unprecedented level of coordination” to identify threats and “quickly share timely and actionable information.”
“While at this time we have no evidence of a compromise or disruption to election infrastructure that would enable adversaries to prevent voting, change vote counts or disrupt the ability to tally votes,” the statement said, “we continue to vigilantly monitor any threats to U.S. elections.”
DEMOCRATS SAY EFFORT FALLS SHORT: In a conference call with reporters yesterday, Maryland Rep. John Sarbanes and Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy, both Democrats, complained that the majority Republican Senate is blocking three separate measures that have passed the House, including one that would harden local election systems and improve ballot box security.
“The Republicans in the House did not support that bill, as many of you probably know, and Mitch McConnell has refused, for months now, to bring it to the Senate floor,” said Murphy. “At a time when 50 Republican senators have co-sponsored a bill condemning the House impeachment inquiry, there’s not one Republican senator who stepped up to defend the integrity of our elections. So in terms of priorities, the Republicans are way off base here.”
“Time’s running out here. This should not be a partisan issue. obviously, the public cares deeply about this and they want us to do the patriotic thing, step up, protect our elections,” said Sarbanes. “So the burden really is on the Republicans now, to show that they share this mission we have of protecting the democracy. We got one year to go, the clock is ticking and we need action on this.”
Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Susan Katz Keating (@SKatzKeating). Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what’s going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue!
NOTE TO READERS: Daily on Defense will not be published on Monday, Nov. 11 in observance of the Veterans Day federal holiday. We’ll be back in your inbox, and on line Tuesday, Nov. 12. Thank you for your service.
HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Mark Esper welcomes Qatari Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of State for Defense Affairs Khalid Al Attiyah to the Pentagon at 1:30 p.m.
THIS MEANS WAR: Outraged by the attack that killed nine members of a Mormon family in northern Mexico, apparently after an ambush by a Mexican drug cartel, President Trump offered to help Mexico wage war against the cartels. The victims included six children and their mothers.
“If Mexico needs or requests help in cleaning out these monsters, the United States stands ready, willing & able to get involved and do the job quickly and effectively,” Trump tweeted yesterday. “The great new President of Mexico has made this a big issue, but the cartels have become so large and powerful that you sometimes need an army to defeat an army!”
“This is the time for Mexico, with the help of the United States, to wage WAR on the drug cartels and wipe them off the face of the earth. We merely await a call from your great new president!” Trump said in the last of three tweets.
Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has declined the U.S. offer, while pledging a full investigation of the murders.
“We are very grateful to President Trump, or to any foreign government that wants to cooperate and help,” he said at a news conference. “But in these cases we have to act independently, in accordance with our constitution and our tradition of independence and sovereignty.”
“War is irrational,” López Obrador added. “We are for peace.”
IRAQ SLIPPING INTO TURMOIL: As violent anti-government demonstrations continue in Iraq, the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad has tweeted an appeal for Iraqi leaders to “engage urgently and seriously” with the protestors.
“We deplore the killing and kidnapping of unarmed protestors, threats to freedom of expression, and the cycle of violence taking place,” the statement says.”There is no path forward based on the suppression of the will of the Iraqi people.
More than 250 protestors have died since the demonstrations began last month.
FOREST FIRE AS A TERRORIST TOOL: In recent months the pro-ISIS media outlet Quraysh Media has released a series of posters titled “Ignite fires,” urging the group’s followers to set fire to forests in the West as a means of waging jihad, according to the Middle East Media Research Institute, a terrorist monitoring group.
One poster published earlier this year reads reads: “Oh monotheists [followers of ISIS], ignite fires in the forests and fields, and we are addressing especially those who live in Europe and America, for they are painful to them.”
SEXUAL ASSAULT AND PTSD: The Pentagon this week released a new report from the DoD Inspector General about the top management challenges facing the department. Among the conclutions is that sexual assault in the military may be more likely to cause post traumatic stress disorder than combat.
Col. Don Christensen (ret.), the former Chief Prosecutor of the United State Air Force and President of Protect Our Defenders, released the following statement:
“The Pentagon IG report is a damning indictment of the myriad of ways the military has failed to address the crisis of sexual assault and protect the women and men who serve. Despite all the assurances of military leadership that they alone are the solution, the Pentagon’s obstruction of true reform has led to skyrocketing sexual assault rates and plummeting accountability.”
The Rundown
AP: Trump OKs wider Syria oil mission, raising legal questions
Washington Examiner: Navy accused of ‘conspiring’ to strip Eddie Gallagher of his SEAL Trident
CNN: Esper to urge Trump not to intervene in cases of service members facing war crimes allegations
Defense One: SecDef: China is exporting killer robots to the Mideast
Breaking Defense: Ford Aircraft Carriers Not Ready For F-35s, So Aging Vinson Gets The Call
Military Times: Iran threatens US forces and allies who host American troops
AFP: U.S. Navy Prepares Allies To ‘Protect Navigation’ In Gulf
Washington Post: Russian fighters shift balance of Libyan proxy war
New York Times: Russian Snipers, Missiles and Warplanes Try to Tilt Libyan War
Forbes: Russian Navy To Deploy New Zircon Hypersonic Missile To Pacific
AP: In last days, al-Baghdadi sought safety in shrinking domain
Washington Post: Pentagon pushed to use vast swath of desert wildlife refuge ‘primarily’ for military purposes, draft bill says
AP: Protests in Iraq reveal a long-simmering anger at Iran
Washington Post: The humble three-wheeled tuk-tuk has become the symbol of Iraq’s uprising
Forbes: Probability Of A Full-Year Continuing Resolution Is Rising, Endangering Pentagon Spending Plans
Air Force Magazine: RAND Outlines Improvements Needed to Tackle Nuclear Modernization
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | NOVEMBER 6
7:30 a.m. 300 First St. S.E. — Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein speaks at Air Force Association Breakfast Series. https://www.afa.org/events/calendar
8:30 a.m. 1301 K St. N.W. — Washington Post Live a discussion on “Veterans in America,” with Veterans’ Affairs ranking member Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont.; Sen. Jerry Moran, R-Kan.; Kayla Williams, director of the Center for a New American Security’s Military, Veterans, and Society Program; Medal of Honor recipient David Bellavia; and Elliot Ackerman, author of “Green on Blue” Livestream at https://www.washingtonpost.com/post-live
8:45 a.m. 2399 Richmond Hwy — International Quality and Productivity Center Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance and Command and Control Battle Management Conference, with Kenneth Bray, acting associate deputy Air Force chief of staff for ISR; Air Force Vice Chief of Staff Gen. Stephen Wilson; and British Army Brig. Gen. Ben Kite, capability, strategy and development head at the British Army Information Directorate https://www.defenceiq.com/events-isrusa
10 a.m. 2168 Rayburn — Briefing by the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee , American Constitution Society, and Rutgers Law School Center for Security, Race and Rights on the status of Syrian refugees in Turkey, Jordan, and the U.S. https://www.facebook.com/events Live stream at http://www.youtu.be
10:30 a.m. 1025 Connecticut Ave. N.W. — SETA Foundation discussion on “The Future of U.S. Policy on Syria,” with Mona Yacoubian, senior adviser for Syria, the Middle East and North Africa at the U.S. Institute of Peace; Luke Coffey, director of the Heritage Foundation Center for Foreign Policy; Kilic Kanat, research director at the SETA Foundation at Washington, D.C.; and Kadir Ustun, executive director of the SETA Foundation. https://setadc.org/events
10:30 a.m. 37th and O Sts. N.W. — Atlantic Council discussion “30 Years Later: Lessons from the Fall of the Berlin Wall,” with former Secretary of State James Baker; and former White House Press Secretary Marlin Fitzwater. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
12:30 p.m. 2799 Richmond Hwy — Naval Submarine League symposium “Accelerating in a New Direction,” with Adm. Frank Caldwell, director of Naval Reactors; and Navy Program Executive Officer for Submarines Rear Adm. David Goggins. https://www.navalsubleague.org/events
1:30 p.m. Pentagon, River Entrance — Defense Secretary Mark Esper welcomes Qatari Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of State for Defense Affairs Khalid Al Attiyah to the Pentagon.
2 p.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd., Arl.— Association of the U.S. Army Accessions Forum, with Maj. Gen. John Evans, commander of the Army Cadet Command; and Maj. Gen. Frank Muth, commander of the Army Recruiting Command. https://www.ausa.org/events/army-accessions-forum
THURSDAY | NOVEMBER 7
7:55 a.m. 2799 Richmond Hwy. — Naval Submarine League symposium “Accelerating in a New Direction,” with Pacific Fleet Submarine Force Commander Rear Adm. Blake Converse speaking at 10:45 a.m.; and Assistant Navy Secretary for Research, Development and Acquisition James Geurts at 12 p.m. https://www.navalsubleague.org/events
8 a.m. 2201 G St. N.W. — Defense Writers Group breakfast with Lisa Gordon-Hagerty, undersecretary of energy for nuclear security and NNSA administrator. https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu
8 a.m. 950 New York Ave. N.W. — Defense One Outlook 2020 live summit with R. Clarke Cooper, assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs; Amb. James Jeffrey, special representative for syria engagement; Richard Fontaine, deputy director-general for the International Institute for Strategic Studies; Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn.; Sen. Chris Van Hollen D-Md.; Jonathan Capehart, opinion writer The Washington Post; Elise Jordan, columnist, TIME; Patricia Kim, senior policy analyst, China, U.S. Institute of Peace. https://www.defenseone.com/feature/outlook-2020
8 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research discussion on “Blurring the Line: Politics and the Military in a Post-9/11 America,” with Nora Bensahel, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies; Rebecca Burgess, AEI; Giselle Donnelly, AEI; Jim Golby, U.S. Army; Seth Lynn, Veterans Campaign; Jeremy Teigen, Ramapo College; Heidi Urben, U.S. Army. Livestream at: http://www.american.com/watch/aei-livestream
8:30 a.m. 902 Hart — The American Conservative foreign policy conference “Regime Change: How to Replace the Beltway Blob with the Foreign Policy Americans Want,” with Andrew Bacevich, TAC writer-at-large; Emma Ashford, defense and foreign policy research fellow at the Cato Institute; retired Col. Doug Macgregor, author, Margin of Victory: Five Battles that Changed the Face of Modern War; Mark Perry, author, The Pentagon’s Wars: The Military’s Undeclared Wars Against America’s Presidents, and many others. Register at https://www.eventbrite.com/e/regime-change
8:30 a.m. 1001 16th St. N.W. — American Bar Association “Annual Review of the Field of National Security Law,” with Dana Boente, general counsel at the FBI, and Assistant Attorney General for National Security John Demers. https://www.americanbar.org/events
FRIDAY | NOVEMBER 8
12:15 p.m. 1777 F St, N.W. — Council on Foreign Relations discussion “Stabilizing Venezuela: What Now?” with former U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela William Brownfield; former U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela Patrick Dennis Duddy, director of the Duke University Center for Latin American and Caribbean Studies; Francisco Rodriguez, director of the Oil for Venezuela Foundation; Cynthia Arnson, director of the Woodrow Wilson Center’s Latin American Program; and Stephen Donehoo, managing partner at McLarty Associates. http://www.cfr.org
12:30 p.m. 14th and F St. N.W. — National Press Club newsmaker luncheon address with Veterans Affairs Secretary Robert Wilkie. https://www.press.org/events
MONDAY | NOVEMBER 11 VETERANS DAY
TUESDAY | NOVEMBER 12
8 a.m. 2201 G Street N.W. — Defense Writers Group breakfast with Will Roper, assistant secretary of the air force for acquisition, technology and logistics. https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“It’s clear the threats of tomorrow are no longer the ones we have faced and defeated in the past. … Advances in AI have the potential to change the character of warfare for generations to come. Whichever nation harnesses AI first will have a decisive advantage on the battlefield for many, many years. We have to get there first.”
Defense Secretary Mark Esper, speaking Tuesday at the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence conference
