Tuesday's largely mail-in primary in Indiana is shaping up to be unique

Tuesday's primary will be unlike any we've seen in Indiana. 

It's a good bet more than half of you will have cast your ballots by the time the polls open, due to the expansion of absentee voting amid coronavirus concerns. Many of you who do venture out Tuesday will find fewer polling places, workers wearing protective gear and lines stretching out longer than they look due to social distancing. 

There's cause to worry some of those absentee ballots will arrive too late to be counted. With an increasing number of Marion County voters complaining their ballots arrived late this week or haven't come at all, Clerk Myla Eldridge sent a letter Thursday to the Secretary of State urging the Indiana Election Commission extend the deadline to receive ballots back by mail.

She says it's clear thousands of voters will be disenfranchised, but at this point, the deadline remains noon Tuesday. In an evolving public spat, Secretary of State Connie Lawson blamed Marion County for a lack of preparation and said she won't change deadlines for one county.

While some of those voters who planned to vote absentee might now vote in person, no one is expecting record-shattering turnout because the top-of-the-ticket races are uncontested. 

President Trump and Joe Biden wrapped up their nominations months ago. Gov. Holcomb is running unopposed for a second term and Dr. Woody Myers' potential Democratic opponents dropped out long ago. 

The top races for some Hoosiers will be for Congress — especially in the districts of the retiring Susan Brooks and Pete Visclosky. For others, the most interesting names on the ballot will be for county office.

Primary voters won't have a say in one of the most compelling races. Former Congressman Todd Rokita has jumped into the mix to replace Attorney General Curtis Hill, an estranged Republican whom Gov. Holcomb has been unable to toss from the ticket.

Hill's fate will be decided by Republican state delegates, who will mail in their own votes after the June 18 virtual state convention. 

Hill won't be the only candidate who will have to wait to learn his fate, though certainly he'll have the longest wait. 

Many election boards have been warning they don't expect final results Tuesday — especially in larger counties and in competitive Congressional districts that cross political borders. Election workers in many counties will tally all of those absentee ballots into Wednesday and potentially beyond.

Now one can say precisely how long before every race has been called. Potentially just a day. Possibly several. At worst, probably a week, though counties have nearly two weeks, until June 12. 

Also different: The way in which the winners celebrate and launch their November campaigns. While a few candidates are planning small watch parties on Election Night, there will be no rousing victory speeches with packed ballroom parties as a backdrop. No photos of handshakes and high fives from supporters. No touching pictures of hugs and kisses from kids and spouses in front of large crowds. 

Tuesday, the most likely story will be what it all looked like and how it went. 

"I know for my friends who are interested in politics," said Robert Dion, a political science professor at the University of Evansville, "if they sit down on Election Night with a beer and they want to see who's winning, they are not going to know." 

546,000 to vote by mail

Roughly 546,000 Hoosiers have requested mail-in ballots in the past few weeks, an extraordinary number 10 times higher than four years ago. 

In 2016, more than 1.7 million voted in the presidential primary, but only about 53,800 of those by mail.

That was a historic night with high turnout. Trump wrapped up his nomination against a lingering Ted Cruz. Bernie Sanders defeated eventual nominee Hillary Clinton, forcing her to continue campaigning for several weeks. 

Trump won't be here Tuesday. Neither will Biden.

Holcomb and Myers aren't planning watch parties. The governor is keeping focused on Indiana's reopening amid the coronavirus. Myers is trying to figure out how to gain traction — and raise cash — without campaigning in person. 

The last year Indiana had such a ho-hum presidential and gubernatorial primary, in 2012, only some 957,500 Hoosiers voted. President Obama was seeking a second term and Mitt Romney had all but wrapped up the GOP nomination.

Mike Pence, at the time a firebrand conservative congressman, and former House Speaker John Gregg were both uncontested in their gubernatorial primaries. 

There's cause to think Tuesday might produce an even lower turnout than in 2012, perhaps much lower if this election hadn't been buoyed by the option for mail-in voting. 

Republicans eight years ago had a top of the ticket Senate race — tea party favorite Richard Mourdock's historic defeat of longtime Sen. Richard Lugar. 

While Democrats in some areas might be especially motivated to vote as a protest to President Trump, pundits think it's most likely only the most reliable voters who will turn out. 

"Seniors or those close to being seniors are the ones most likely to vote," said Nadia Brown, an associate professor of political science at Purdue University. "Black women are more likely to turn out. I'm really concerned that those who win on Tuesday will see their winning as a referendum or mandate to govern, and it definitely is not."

Absentee balloting hasn't been all smooth

It's difficult to say how absentee balloting will go. There's cause to think the ease of voting will somewhat bolster turnout while protecting folks from COVID-19. That said, there's also reason to think there will be problems. 

Never before, have as many as half a million Hoosiers voted by mail in one election. That's a lot of ballots to mail out and count. It's hard to say how it will go. 

In Marion County, about 124,000 want to vote by mail. Clerk Eldridge says her staff has processed 123,000 of those, but she says the post office has taken weeks to deliver many ballots to voters. She said her staff also only had 10 people to process all of those application in the early weeks of the pandemic, a number that's now risen to 100. 

"In short," she wrote to the Secretary of State, "this could mean that thousands of ballots will remain uncounted despite the best efforts of the Marion County Election Board and the voters themselves."

The Secretary of State sent a letter back saying Marion County waited too long to shift into high gear and should have reached out sooner for help.

"Lack of prior planning and preparation are no reason to change deadlines," she wrote. 

Judging by the folks who have been reaching out to IndyStar, voters are worried their votes won't be counted. In some cases, they say ballots took weeks to arrive. In other cases, election officials say they never received the applications. Other voters are worried the ballots came so late there won't be time to mail them back. 

It's left many unsure what to do. 

Carl Scott, 67, and John Stubblefield, 60, were among several voters who told IndyStar in a story that ran May 19 they had requested but had not received absentee ballots weeks prior. 

The ballots finally came on May 23, nearly three weeks after the two submitted applications. Marion County received the applications May 7 and mailed them out May 8, according to the clerk's office. It's unclear what happened. 

"My concern with all of this is that people may be put in a position where they cannot vote," Scott said. "Eventually I would love to see the whole country being able to vote by mail.  Obviously they need to get this worked out."

Such anecdotal stories abound and it's unclear how widespread of an issue that will be in or beyond Marion County. 

The Secretary of State's Office notes absentee ballots also can be turned into the county clerk's office prior to election day. You also can vote in person, but you'll have to fill out paperwork to confirm you didn't vote absentee. 

You can check the status of your ballot at www.IndianaVoters.com.

"Because of the high number of absentee ballots in this year’s primary," said Secretary of State spokesman Ian Hauer in a news release, "the U.S. Postal Service is under a high level of strain, and voters may wish to consider alternate methods for returning their ballot."

Most counties required voters to send an application for an absentee ballot. A few mailed absentee ballots to every voter, a strategy that appeared to be effective. 

Boone County, for example, mailed applications to 46,000 registered voters and about 12,700 responded they will vote by mail. That's more than in both Johnson (about 11,700) and Hendricks (about 10,300) counties, which are each more than twice as populous as Boone. 

Hamilton County will put aside however many of the nearly 40,000 absentee ballots workers haven't counted at 5 p.m. Tuesday and start again Wednesday morning. To help with social distancing, election officials want to get those workers out of the county judicial center before poll workers finish up and come in. 

Some counties, like Allen County in Fort Wayne, won't even start counting absentee ballots until Wednesday and have warned it could take days. Allen County mailed out nearly 40,000 ballots, a huge chunk of the potential vote. 

Keeping things safe

Many counties will have far fewer places to vote. Marion County will have 22, instead of the usual 250. St. Joseph County, home of South Bend, will have 12 voting locations. It usually has more than 120. 

"With fewer polling places and limited volunteers, long lines are a concern, as is the risk of transmitting the virus that causes COVID-19," said Elizabeth Bennion, a politics professor at Indiana University-South Bend.

The Secretary of State has sent personal protective equipment such as hand sanitizer, dispenser bottles, disinfectant, microfiber cloths, gloves and masks to local election offices.

That office also has asked poll workers to wear masks, wash their hands and sanitize equipment and tables regularly, require social distancing and wear gloves when handling paper. 

Each county will handle coronavirus concerns in different ways. 

Many clerks say voters will stand in line spread out by marks on the ground — just like the check out lines at grocery stores.

Election officials are asking voters to wear masks and to socially distance, though their lawyers note they cannot require anyone to do so under Indiana law. 

"While voters are strongly encouraged to follow CDC guidelines," a memo from the Secretary of State to election offices reads, "such as wearing cloth face coverings and socially distance when in public spaces, coughing or sneezing into their elbow,  and regularly washing hands with soap and water (use hand sanitizer), in the view of the Election Division, these cannot be pre-conditions for a voter to cast their ballot on Election Day."

The letter also says election officials can't ban campaign volunteers from appearing outside voting places; you know, the folks wearing candidate buttons and handing out fliers. But you can ask them to stay 6 feet away. 

"A voter who feels harassed, endangered or otherwise harmed by a volunteer not heeding to their request should direct matters to local law enforcement," the letter says.

To avoid the risks, election officials everywhere hope voters got the message — vote by mail. 

"I think it's going to be a very slow day when you look at the actual number of people showing up," said Andy Downs, director of the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics in Fort Wayne. "I think that it will also be incredibility frustrating because of how slowly results will trickle in."

Contact IndyStar reporter Chris Sikich at Chris.Sikich@indystar.com. Follow him on Twitter: @ChrisSikich.