It’s hard to believe four quarterbacks will actually go in the top four picks of the 2021 NFL Draft, largely because it’s never happened before. But this year’s draft class might just be the exception. And the Atlanta Falcons seem interested in facilitating history. Per reports, they’ve openly begun shopping fourth overall.
With the Jacksonville Jaguars, the New York Jets and the San Francisco 49ers looking like locks to take quarterbacks 1-2-3, it’s only a matter of if the Falcons can find a satisfactory offer from a bidder, who almost definitely will be moving up to take a signal-caller. We may not see the execution of that trade until the 49ers make their selection at No. 3, because there’s still some mystery around who San Francisco will select. Some think it’ll be Alabama’s Mac Jones. Some can’t believe that. (I, for one, am having a hard time believing it — and this mock draft reflects that.)
But depending upon that selection, we could see a bidding war for fourth overall. That’s one of the many things we simulated here, with the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos vying for that fourth-overall pick.
All that — and so much more — in this mock draft.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-15): Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
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Trevor Lawrence is an outstanding prospect. He plays quarterback. He’ll be the future No. 1 overall pick, even if he doesn’t want his job to consume his life. There’s almost nothing to talk about when it comes to Lawrence and the Jaguars, which is why I think folks manufactured this he-doesn’t-care-enough-about-football storyline. (It’s a dumb storyline.)
2. New York Jets (2-14): Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
(AP Photo/Eric Christian Smith)
It felt like Jets GM Joe Douglas teased this selection when he was asked about Steve Young’s comments that the Jets will take Wilson.
“Steve’s plugged in to BYU pretty well,” Douglas said.
Maybe it’s a facade. But … probably not. Wilson has all the tools a quarterback needs to succeed in the NFL. He could be special.
3. San Francisco 49ers (6-10) (via MIA via HOU): Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
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I just want to make one thing clear: No one has any idea who the 49ers are going to take a third. OK? OK.
There were early indications Alabama quarterback Mac Jones would go to San Francisco. It made some sense if you stretched a comparison between Jones and Kirk Cousins, a Kyle Shanahan favorite. But the common refrain to that argument was that no one should be trading up to get Cousins 2.0.
No, I think the 49ers should take either Justin Fields or Trey Lance. Fields seems more pro ready but Lance has the higher ceiling. With Jimmy Garoppolo in place (for now), San Francisco can draft and develop Lance, who will probably supplant Garoppolo in time for Week 1.
MOCK TRADE! 4. Denver Broncos (5-11): Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
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What are the terms? Denver gave up 9th overall, 40th overall, a 2022 first-rounder and a 2022 third-rounder.
I really wanted to mock the New England Patriots into this position because… well, that would be fun. Bill Belichick has put together a wild offseason. Trading up for a quarterback would be nuts for New England. But I also think they’re likely to lose most bidding wars, because 1) Belichick is going to act rationally (even after spending more than everyone else in free agency) and 2) the Patriots don’t have as valuable assets as other teams that might trade up like Denver and Carolina.
The Broncos will have an easier time jumping up in the draft. Because the front office is undergoing turnover and the roster is actually quite talented (despite experiencing a huge amount of injuries in 2020), the Broncos might aggressively target a quarterback. Fields could be perfect for them. He’d give Denver a shot at competing with the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs and Justin Herbert-led Chargers.
With a strong supporting cast at receiver (Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy) and tight end (Noah Fant), Fields would be immediately in the discussion for Rookie of the Year.
5. Cincinnati Bengals (4-11-1): Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
Brad McClenny/The Gainesville Sun via AP
With four quarterbacks going in the top four picks, the Bengals can get the best of the rest. And with a starting quarterback (Joe Burrow, the No. 1 pick in 2019), the Bengals should be able to get the top player on their big board.
It’s easy to imagine the Bengals going with Penei Sewell, with Burrow missing 2020 with an ACL injury, which was related to poor protection. But there are a number of good tackles that should be available to Cincy at the top of the second round (or *spoiler alert* at the end of the first, if the Bengals were to trade back up). Pitts is as impressive a prospect at tight end as we’ve seen in quite some time. The position is so shallow in the NFL — if you can get an elite talent, it can really change the complexion of the offense. That’s what Pitts should do for the Bengals.
6. Miami Dolphins (via PHI): DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
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The Dolphins probably would’ve been happy to take Smith at third overall. So they’re even more content to take him at sixth after acquiring an extra first-rounder in their three-team trade with the 49ers and the Philadelphia Eagles.
LSU receiver Ja’Marr Chase is the more popular choice for the top wideout, but we see teams get enamored with one player (like the Raiders did with Henry Ruggs) and that leads to draft-day surprises. My guess is that Brian Flores loves Smith’s underdog mentality, versatility and big play ability. The fact that Smith is small doesn’t really show up on film. It doesn’t hurt that Smith has rapport with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
7. Detroit Lions (5-11): Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
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It’s sort of a weird fit, with the Lions having left tackle Taylor Decker. Sewell would have to play on the right, which almost feels like a diss for a player with his potential. But then again, if you think back to coach Dan Campbell spouting quotes about biting off the kneecaps of his opponents, you could see him drafting an offensive lineman from a mile away.
8. Carolina Panthers (5-11): Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern
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The Panthers would’ve liked Sewell to slip just one more slot down the board, but they’d be happy with Slater. He’ll take over at left tackle, which should be helpful in Sam Darnold’s takeover of the Carolina offense. (What a depressing sentence.)
MOCK TRADE! 9. Atlanta Falcons (4-12) (via DEN): Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU
Syndication: LafayetteLA
What are the terms? The Falcons got 9th overall, 40th overall and a 2022 first-rounder.
Yes, I know the Falcons have Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. But that won’t stop Chase from getting on the field. Chase is also just too good to avoid at this slot. Atlanta will deploy 3-receiver sets to make sure they get their best personnel on the field. Plus, Jones’ and Ridley’s futures are uncertain past 2022. It wouldn’t hurt to begin planning for the future in the event Atlanta loses one or two of their top wideouts.
10. Dallas Cowboys (6-10): Patrick Surtain, CB, Alabama
Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
The Cowboys get the No. 1 cornerback they’ve been sorely lacking since Byron Jones departed. Surtain is a rangy athlete who did a nice job in coverage of some of college football’s best wideouts during his career.
11. New York Giants (6-10): Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
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Horn reminds me of Stephon Gilmore, though with some problems on getting too handsy and seeing a fair amount of holding penalties. That said, coach Joe Judge (who worked with Gilmore in New England) might see an opportunity to refine Horn’s technique and make him one of the NFL’s best cornerbacks. (And Bill Belichick, at 15th, would probably be sad he doesn’t get the chance to do the same.)
12. Philadelphia Eagles (4-11-1) (via MIA via SF): Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
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This mock draft got boring for a second, didn’t it? Too many tackles and defensive players!
Let’s spice it up.
The Eagles take a quarterback. I’ll acknowledge that this move would be a bit stunning. After all, if Philly liked a quarterback (like Jones) in this year’s draft, the team might have stayed put at 6th where they’d be more likely to land him. On the other hand, maybe the Eagles recognize they like Jones more than the rest of the league. Moving back to 12 gets them more draft assets — and their quarterback of the future. And MAYBE the Eagles have no idea what’s going on. (It sure seems that way.)
Jones is the kind of pocket passer that many NFL general managers think is going extinct. Some think the era of statuesque quarterbacks like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees is over. But perhaps the Eagles will zig while the league zags. Perhaps they can land an elite quarterback prospect, who thrives in the pocket. Perhaps QB mobility is growing overrated. But, again, maybe the Eagles have no idea what’s going on.
13. Los Angeles Chargers (7-9): Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
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The Chargers have a quarterback, Justin Herbert. They don’t have a left tackle. But — thanks to me! — they have one. You’re welcome, Chargers.
14. Minnesota Vikings (7-9): Alijah Vera-Tucker, OG, USC
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The Vikings need an immediate upgrade on the offensive interior. Minnesota will be running behind Vera-Tucker in no time. Dalvin Cook’s fantasy football owners probably won’t even know Vera-Tucker’s name. But they will love him.
15. New England Patriots (7-9): Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
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New England couldn’t get up to four where they would find their QB. And it’s probably tempting for Belichick to trade down the board in 2021 in order to stock up on assets in 2022, when they might again try to move up for a quarterback, but instead the Patriots take a WR1 in the making. With Julian Edelman retiring, Waddle will be a fixture in the offense alongside fellow newcomers Nelson Agholor, Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry. The pass-catching group will be totally different. And Cam Newton should be all smiles.
MOCK TRADE! 16. Miami Dolphins (10-6): Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
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What are the terms? The Dolphins give the Cardinals a 2022 third-rounder to move up two spots.
Miami jumps Las Vegas to get Owusu-Kormoah, a versatile and, perhaps, positionless player for Flores’ defense. Owusu-Kormoah can play all over the box at linebacker, safety and nickelback. If Flores has a good sense of how to use the young prospect, he should shine in the NFL.
17. Las Vegas Raiders (8-8): Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa
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*Puts on Jon Gruden mask*
I’ll tell ya what: those Dolphins stink like fish. They jumped us to get the player we wanted, man. Wild. So what the heck do we do now? I’ll tell ya. We take this Zaven Collins kid. Reminds me of Jamie Collins coming out of Southern Miss. Versatile kid coming from a small school. Both have the last name Collins. Wow. What a coincidence, man. I love this kid. And I love his name: Zaven. I’ll tell ya what: I’m a Zaven maven.
MOCK TRADE! 18. Arizona Cardinals (8-8): Greg Newsome, CB, Northwestern
Syndication: Journal-Courier
What are the terms? The Cardinals took the Dolphins’ 2022 third-rounder to move back two spots.
His freakish athleticism and strong fundamentals should quickly turn Newsome into a No. 1 cornerback, which would change the complexion of a seemingly weak Arizona secondary. They would’ve taken Newsome at 16 — but get him at 18 while getting some future draft capital.
19. Washington Football Team (8-8): Dillon Raduntz, OT, North Dakota State
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This would be a good time for Washington to move back, but I’m not sure there are many draft picks that will drive teams up the board. Rashod Bateman is about to go to the Chicago Bears. Perhaps the Ravens would ring up Washington with interest to get Bateman, whose size makes him stand out in a shrimpy group of tier 2 receivers (Kadarius Toney, Elijah Moore, Rondale Moore). But in this case, the pick better be Raduntz, who should be a day one starter to help Ryan Fitzpatrick.
20. Chicago Bears (8-8): Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
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Bateman reminds me of Keenan Allen, a route-running technician with size. That said, I’m not sure Batemen’s explosiveness rivals that of Allen — at least when looking at their college tape. Still, Bateman should be an impressive pro.
Allen Robinson probably isn’t staying in Chicago past 2021, so Bateman can complement him for this season and supplant him in the following year.
21. Indianapolis Colts (11-5): Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Miami
(Matt Gentry/The Roanoke Times via AP, Pool)
It’s anyone’s guess which edge player will go off the board first. There are a number of top-end options, but there isn’t a player who clearly projects into an all-around showstopper. Indy takes a risk on Phillips, who probably has the most upside but has injury concerns.
22. Tennessee Titans (11-5): Jayson Oweh, EDGE, Penn State
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The Titans were the third-worst sacking team in the NFL with just 19. Surely, Mike Vrabel will prioritize addressing that, even after adding Bud Dupree in free agency. Oweh might need a year to bulk up and get accustomed to the NFL speed. (He didn’t start playing football until his junior year of high school.) But he’s got enough of the right stuff for Vrabel to develop in short time.
23. Jets (via Seattle Seahawks, 12-4): Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan
Syndication: Detroit Free Press
Paye is a confusing mix of raw talent, size and athleticism and underwhelming on-field performance. But perhaps Jets coach Robert Saleh thinks he can work magic with the freakish prospect.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4): Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
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Ben Roethlisberger doesn’t have the same ability to carry an offense that he once had, and running back is a major position of need.
At the back end of the first round, a running back is a bit of a tough call. On one hand, you can secure one of the best players at the position, who will make an immediate impact for a price that’s actually fairly reasonable, when compared to other players at his position. The thing is, that’s somewhat easy to come by. Replacing running backs has proven fairly easy. Cornerbacks like Caleb Farley or edge players like Georgia’s Azeez Ojulari are much rarer talents at positions where talent is hard to come by.
But, hey, every draft features a few rash and, ultimately, bad decisions. So… this could be one of them.
The Steelers will need yards on offense. They’ll need a way to take the ball out of Roethlisberger’s hands. A premium running back is worthwhile. That’s what Etienne is: a truly elite talent who can do it all.
25. Jaguars (from the Los Angeles Rams, 10-6): Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida
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So this is a fun moment for Jacksonville. It can choose any of the remaining receiving weapons for Lawrence. The choice between Toney and Ole Miss’ Elijah Moore is a tough one. I think concerns about Toney’s character are overblown. He got in trouble in college for pointing an airsoft rifle at other students, an incident which led to a police report.
If teams can get over that lapse in judgement, they’ll see an outstanding football player. Imagine if Tavon Austin could actually run routes. That’s Toney. He’s a tremendous playmaker whether he’s racking up YAC or generating separation.
26. Cleveland Browns (11-5): Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
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I’d love to slot in a defensive tackle for the Browns, but it’s not a great draft for that. Alabama’s Christian Barmore is the best player at the position, but I’m not sure you can justify passing on the other players available, just to address the position of need with Barmore, who was a tad inconsistent.
The Browns instead bolster their interior by taking a linebacker who should be in the top 10 but seems to have significant character concerns after creating locker room problems at Penn State.
27. Baltimore Ravens (11-5): Dyami Brown, WR, UNC
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Baltimore has Hollywood Brown, a speedy though undersized threat. But there should be some reason for concern with his effectiveness after 2020. Brown’s catch percentage fell from 64.8% in 2019 to 58% in 2020. It’s clear that he needs help in the passing offense.
There isn’t a clearcut player in this draft to match with Brown — not unless the Ravens trade up into a spot where they could get Bateman (or, in an very aggressive scenario, into a spot where they could get Waddle, Smith or Chase). But Dyami Brown is polished enough to serve as an immediate deep threat, and could remind folks of Nelson Agholor (with the speed, small-ish size and, yes, inconsistent hands). But he would need time to get acclimated to a more diverse NFL route tree. If Baltimore is patient, Dyami Brown could be a really terrifying complement to Hollywood.
28. New Orleans Saints (12-4): Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia
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It would be fun to slot another quarterback into this spot, but it doesn’t make sense. If Jones (or another top quarterback) slips down the draft board, the Saints might grab him, maybe even moving up to secure one of the top five options. But Stanford’s Davis Mills, Florida’s Kyle Trask and Texas A&M’s Kellen Mond — all in that second tier of quarterbacks — are simply not worth a first-round selection.
Instead, the Saints pull the trigger on Farley, a player whose back injury has sent him plummeting down draft boards. He may even fall into the second round. If he’s healthy, he’s probably the second best cornerback prospect in this draft class.
29. Green Bay Packers (13-3): Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State
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It’s extremely tempting to have the Packers draft Elijah Moore to serve as the perfect complement to Davante Adams. Jenkins, however, is an extremely consistent and talented offensive lineman, who would be a major boon to the Packers. He’s getting some flack for having short arms — but his game film showed it didn’t matter. He can compensate.
MOCK TRADE! 30. Bengals (via Bills): Walker Little, OT, Stanford
(Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
What are the terms? The Bengals trade the 38th overall pick with a 2022 third-rounder to move up to 30th overall.
The Bengals went for a borderline luxury selection with Pitts at fifth overall. But when I made that pick, I figured I could find a way for Cincy to also address its offensive line woes. Well, here the Bengals are, trading up into the first round to get help for Burrow. They jump past the Chiefs to secure a day one starter.
31. Kansas City Chiefs (14-2): Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama
(Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
If I’m the Chiefs, I’m peeved. Aggravated. Incensed!
Little was just the player they needed, and he’s arguably as good as the other tackles who have gone after the top 10 picks. The selection of Leatherwood absolutely forces the issue. Kansas City could address another need with linebackers Nick Bolton or Jamin Davis, who are probably more complete prospects. But Kansas City must improve its offensive line immediately after watching Patrick Mahomes flail his way through the Super Bowl. Leatherwood, who is much more impressive as a run blocker than a pass protector, will have to do.
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5): Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
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Barmore, the best defensive tackle in a class that underwhelms in a big way at that position, sneaks into the first round. He’s got upside — but was also inconsistent with Alabama. An NFL team will need to have confidence they can get the most out of him on every down.
