Austin area just 4,000 people away from minimum COVID-19 herd immunity, leaders say

Only 4,000 more Travis County residents need to come in during the July 4 holiday weekend for a coronavirus vaccination for the community to reach minimum herd immunity, an important step in stopping further mutations of COVID-19, Austin Public Health said Friday.

Dr. Desmar Walkes, Austin-Travis County health authority, said it would take 70% to 90% of Travis County residents who are 12 and older receiving at least one dose of the coronavirus vaccine to reach herd immunity — a threshold where it would be difficult for the disease to spread because so many people in one community are immune. 

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However, reaching the herd immunity threshold that residents have waited so long to achieve is more problematic now after a new variant of the coronavirus, known as the Delta variant, made its way to the United States. National health leaders have pushed hard for communities to get vaccinated because it reduces the likelihood of variants, which can be more contagious and deadly versions of the disease, to appear. 

Delta, one of several variants of COVID-19, is more contagious and can infect some fully vaccinated people. However, those fully vaccinated are likely to not experience severe disease symptoms or death from the variant like those who are not vaccinated. 

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Austin Public Health Director Adrienne Sturrup on Friday said current vaccines are still more than 90% effective in keeping individuals safe. 

“Even as we get close to 70% first doses, it’s important to remember that the pandemic is not over,” Walkes said in a statement Friday. “COVID, and especially the new Delta variant, pose a serious threat to the health of our unvaccinated and partially vaccinated community."

Austin Public Health said that in "pockets of communities in Austin-Travis County that are still under 50% of vaccine eligible residents with at least one dose of vaccine, APH and Travis County will continue to use focused outreach and vaccination strategies to help reduce disparities and further protect our community."

Spencer Woody, a post-doctoral fellow for the University of Texas COVID-19 modeling consortium, said data going back to the early days of the pandemic in March 2020 indicate that more economically disadvantaged areas have been affected the most by the disease and continue to be.

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“We are seeing this gap pretty consistently,” Spencer said. “And if anything, the gap has only increased over time. The ZIP codes that are the most vulnerable are about six weeks behind in terms of vaccinations and that is what we are seeing now.”

According to the interactive dashboard, such East Austin ZIP codes as 78702, which is east of downtown, and 78742 and 78744 in Southeast Austin, rank among the highest in coronavirus-related deaths in the city. Neighboring areas east and southeast of Interstate 35 also show similar patterns.

Maureen Johnson-Leon, data equity specialist with the COVID-19 modeling consortium, said the lag correlates with social vulnerability — economic status, race, ethnicity, language barriers, transportation and accessibility.

Walkes continued to stress all of the same practices that health experts have urged for months.

"We all need to encourage our family, friends and co-workers to get vaccinated to prevent a surge of COVID-19 cases," she continued. "For those who are unvaccinated or partially vaccinated, they should continue to follow the 3 W’s – wear a mask, wash your hands, watch your distance.”

In Travis County, 760,862 people who are 12 and older have been vaccinated with at least one dose,according to state health data. The county and Austin Public Health have started to shift from mass vaccination clinics to community-based pop-up sites at grocery stores, churches, neighborhood centers and apartment complexes.

“We must keep going,” Travis County Judge Andy Brown said in a statement. “As new variants emerge and people continue to test positive for COVID-19, we need to continue vaccinating as many people as possible to ensure broad protections in our community.” 

As of Friday, 69.62% of Travis County residents 12 years and older have received their first dose of the vaccine, according to the Texas Department of State Health Services. Of those, 60.37% are fully vaccinated.

People who want to receive a coronavirus vaccination this weekend can visit vaccines.gov to locate providers. COVID-19 vaccinations are free and do not require insurance or identification.