Arizona COVID-19 update: State reports over 2,800 new cases and 19 new known deaths

Arizona's COVID-19 cases dropped to slightly lower levels this week, although cases, hospitalizations and deaths from the disease remain relatively high.

The state late last month passed the milestone of more than 1 million known cases of COVID-19 reported in Arizona since the pandemic began. Cases have been elevated over the last few months as the highly contagious delta variant has helped drive up infections statewide and across the country. 

On Friday, the state reported 2,830 new COVID-19 cases and 19 new known deaths. 

Hospitalizations have been at high levels in recent weeks, with 2,034 patients hospitalized across Arizona for known or suspected COVID-19 on Thursday. The level has been hovering around its highest point since mid-February.

About 15% of reported COVID-19 cases in Arizona in August were breakthrough infections among people fully vaccinated, according to state health officials, who say the vaccine remains the best way to prevent severe illness and death. About 8% of all COVID-19 hospitalizations since March were in breakthrough cases, and there were 121 known breakthrough COVID-19 deaths in Arizona as of Sept. 7, state officials say.

Previous days this week saw the following new case reports: 3,355 on Sept. 11; 2,765 on Sept. 12; 2,278 on Sept. 13; 2,609 on Sept. 14; 2,432 on Sept. 15 and 2,855 on Sept. 16. 

Death reports for the past week were: 36 on Sept. 11; four on Sept. 12; zero on Sept. 13; 117 on Sept. 14; 29 on Sept. 15 and 27 on Sept. 16.

The Arizona Republic generally recaps the state's daily numbers online in a COVID-19 updates blog and in a weekly recap story online on Thursdays or Fridays and in the newspaper on Sundays.

Arizona's seven-day case rate per 100,000 people ranked 36th Thursday among all states and territories after ranking first and second for much of January and then lower since, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's COVID-19 Data Tracker.

Arizona's seven-day case rate per 100,000 people ranked 51st among 60 states and territories on March 28, but its rank has fluctuated. Last week, it ranked 28th.

The state's seven-day average for new reported COVID-19 cases was at 2,732 on Friday, compared with 2,649 one week earlier and 3,152 two weeks ago. The average had reached as high as 9,800 in January, according to state data.

Arizona's seven-day death rate per 100,000 people ranked 20th in the nation out of all states and territories as of Thursday, according to the CDC.

Percent positivity, which refers to the percentage of COVID-19 diagnostic tests that are positive, varies somewhat based on how it's measured. It's been higher in recent weeks, a sign of more community spread.

For most of May and June, Arizona's percent positivity for COVID-19 testing was at 5%, before rising over the course of July. It was 14% for the week of Aug. 1, 12% for the week of Aug. 8, 10% for the week of Aug. 15, 10% for the week of Aug. 22, 11% for the week of Aug. 29 and 12% for the week of Sept. 5. It’s at 11% so far for the week of Sept. 12. Weekly percent positivity statewide peaked at 25% in December.

Johns Hopkins University calculates Arizona's seven-day moving average of percent positives at 8.2% as of Friday. It shows the state's percent positivity peaked at 24.2% in December.

A positivity rate of 5% or less is considered a good benchmark that the disease's spread is under control.

The state's overall COVID-19 death and case rates since Jan. 21, 2020, still remain among the worst in the country.

The COVID-19 death rate in Arizona since the pandemic began is 265 deaths per 100,000 people as of Thursday, according to the CDC, putting it sixth in the country in a state ranking that separates New York City from New York state. The U.S. average is 200 deaths per 100,000 people as of Thursday, according to the CDC.

New York City has the highest death rate, at 405 deaths per 100,000 people, followed by Mississippi, New Jersey, Louisiana, and Massachusetts.

Arizona's case rate per 100,000 people since the pandemic began ranked 13th nationwide as of Thursday.

Arizona's known COVID-19 death count was at 19,379 after 19 new known deaths were reported on Friday.

The state surpassed 19,000 deaths on Aug. 31 after passing 18,000 deaths on July 6,  17,000 deaths on April 7, 16,000 deaths on March 2, 15,000 deaths on Feb. 17, 14,000 deaths on Feb. 6 and 13,000 deaths on Jan. 29, just one week after it passed 12,000 and two weeks after 11,000 deaths. The state exceeded 10,000 known deaths on Jan. 9. Arizona's first known death from the disease occurred in mid-March 2020.

Many of the reported deaths occurred days or weeks prior because of reporting delays and death certificate matching.

A total of 1,061,604 COVID-19 cases have been identified across the state. March, April, May and June saw relatively lower case reports.

Hospitalization numbers remain high

The Arizona data dashboard shows 91% of all ICU beds and 92% of all inpatient beds in the state were in use on Thursday, with 33% of ICU beds and 23% of non-ICU beds occupied by COVID-19 patients. Statewide, 158 ICU beds and 701 non-ICU beds were available.

The number of patients hospitalized in Arizona for known or suspected COVID-19 cases was at 2,034 on Thursday, which continues a trend of high hospitalization rates in recent weeks but remains below the record 5,082 inpatients on Jan. 11. The highest number of COVID-19 hospitalizations in a single day during the summer 2020 surge was 3,517 on July 13.

The number of patients with suspected or known COVID-19 in ICUs across Arizona has been trending up and reached 573 on Thursday, the highest it's been since February but still far below the record high of 1,183 on Jan. 11. During the summer surge in mid-July 2020, ICU beds in use for COVID-19 peaked at 970.

Arizonans with confirmed and suspected COVID-19 on ventilators tallied 372 on Thursday, higher than last week but well below the record high 821 reached on Jan. 13. During the summer 2020 surge, July 16 was the peak day for ventilator use, with 687 patients.

Thursday saw 1,472 patients in Arizona emergency rooms for COVID-19, below the Dec. 29 single-day record of 2,341 positive or suspected COVID-19 patients seen in emergency departments across the state.

Vaccination update

Arizona began its first COVID-19 vaccinations for health care workers, long-term care facilities and front-line first responders in mid-December. The state shifted largely to an age-based rollout in early March and in late March began allowing anyone 16 and older to start registering for appointments. Arizonans ages 12 and older are eligible to get the Pfizer vaccine, while the Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines are approved for those 18 and older.

The state reported about 4.1 million people in Arizona — about 57.1% of the total state population — had received at least one vaccine dose as of Friday, with more than 3.6 million people fully vaccinated against COVID-19.

Arizona's rate of fully vaccinated people out of the total population is 50%, which is behind the national rate of 54.2%, according to the CDC as of Thursday. 

Out of the total population that's eligible to receive a COVID-19 vaccine, those ages 12 and older, 58.6% of those eligible in Arizona are fully vaccinated compared with 63.5% at the national level, CDC data shows.

What to know about Friday's numbers

Reported cases in Arizona: 1,061,604.

Cases since the outbreak began increased by 2,830, or 0.27%, from Thursday's 1,058,774​​​​​​ identified cases. These daily cases are grouped by the date they are reported to the state health department, not by the date the tests were administered.

Cases by county: 673,511 in Maricopa, 131,978 in Pima, 66,311 in Pinal, 40,203 in Yuma, 30,101 in Mohave, 25,108 in Yavapai, 20,694 in Coconino, 19,170 in Navajo, 13,763 in Cochise, 12,870 in Apache, 8,755 in Gila, 8,653 in Santa Cruz, 6,753 in Graham, 2,877 in La Paz and 857 in Greenlee, according to state numbers.

The rate of cases per 100,000 people since the pandemic began is highest in Apache County, followed by Graham, Yuma, Navajo and Santa Cruz counties, per state data. The rate in Apache County is 17,923 cases per 100,000 people. By comparison, the U.S. average rate since the pandemic began is 12,528 cases per 100,000 people as of Thursday, according to the CDC.

The Navajo Nation reported 33,394 cases and 1,428 confirmed deaths in total as of Thursday. The Navajo Nation includes parts of Arizona, New Mexico and Utah.

The Arizona Department of Corrections reported 12,376 inmates had tested positive for COVID-19 as of Thursday, including 2,244 in Tucson, 2,034 in Eyman, 2,011 in Yuma, 1,304 in Lewis and 1,163 in Douglas; 49,792 inmates statewide have been tested. A total of 3,005 prison staff members have self-reported testing positive, the department said. Fifty-four incarcerated people in Arizona have been confirmed to have died of COVID-19, with eight additional deaths under investigation.

Race/ethnicity is unknown for 17% of all COVID-19 cases statewide, but of positive cases, the breakdown is 39% white, 29% Hispanic or Latino, 5% Native American, 4% Black and 1% Asian/Pacific Islander.

Of those who have tested positive in Arizona since the start of the pandemic, 18% were younger than 20, 44% were 20-44, 14% were 45-54, 11% were 55-64 and 12% were age 65 or older.

Laboratories had completed 5,318,545 diagnostic tests on unique individuals for COVID-19 as of Friday, 12.7% of which have come back positive. That number includes both PCR and antigen testing. For most of May and the first part of June, Arizona’s percent positivity was at 5% before rising again in late June, according to the state. Percent positivity is at 11% so far for the week of Sept. 12 The state numbers leave out data from labs that do not report electronically.

The state Health Department includes probable cases as anyone with a positive antigen test, another type of test to determine infection. Antigen tests (not related to antibody tests) use a nasal swab or another fluid sample to test for current infection. Results are typically produced within 15 minutes.

A positive antigen test result is considered very accurate, but there's an increased chance of false-negative results, the Mayo Clinic said. Mayo Clinic officials say a doctor may recommend a PCR (polymerase chain reaction) test to confirm a negative antigen test result.

Arizona as of Thursday had the 13th-highest overall case rate in the country since Jan. 21, 2020. Ahead of Arizona in cases per 100,000 people since the pandemic began are Tennessee, North Dakota, Florida, Arkansas, Mississippi, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Alabama, Louisiana, Utah and Oklahoma, according to the CDC.

Arizona's infection rate is 14,507 cases per 100,000 people, according to the CDC. The national average is 12,528 cases per 100,000 people, although the rates in states hard hit early in the pandemic may be an undercount because of a lack of available testing in March and April 2020.

Reported deaths in Arizona: 19,379

Deaths by county: 11,126 in Maricopa, 2,562 in Pima, 974 in Pinal, 885 in Mohave, 878 in Yuma, 615 in Yavapai, 585 in Navajo, 459 in Apache, 345 in Coconino, 313 in Cochise, 251 in Gila, 188 in Santa Cruz, 97 in Graham, 86 in La Paz and 15 in Greenlee.

People age 65 and older make up 14,201 of the 19,379 deaths or 73%. About 15% of deaths were among people 55-64 years old, 7% were 45-54 and 5% were 20-44 years old.

While race/ethnicity was unknown for 6% of deaths, 51% of those who died were white, 28% were Hispanic or Latino, 8% were Native American, 3% were Black and 1% were Asian/Pacific Islander, the state data shows.

The global death toll as of Friday was 4,673,732. The U.S. had the highest death count of any country in the world, at 670,447, followed by Brazil at 589,246 and India at 444,248, according to Johns Hopkins University.

Arizona's 19,379 deaths represent about 2.9% of COVID-19 deaths in the United States.

Reach the reporter at Alison.Steinbach@arizonarepublic.com or at 602-444-4282. Follow her on Twitter @alisteinbach.