Michigan State vs. Rutgers: Scouting report, prediction

Rutgers football vs. Michigan State, Nov 23, 2019

WR Isaiah Washington (83) of Rutgers tries to knock the pass away from Shakur Brown (29) of Michigan State, who would not make the interception and was flagged for DPI on the play during the second half of the Big Ten football game between Rutgers and Michigan State at SHI Stadium in Piscataway, NJ on 11/23/19. Rutgers lost 27-0.Chris Faytok | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com

The Michigan State football season is finally almost here.

The Spartans will open the season, which was postponed by the coronavirus pandemic, on Saturday (noon, BTN) when they host Rutgers.

More than eight months after being hired to replace Mark Dantonio, Mel Tucker will make his debut as Michigan State’s new head coach. Greg Schiano will coach his first game after returning in the offseason to lead Rutgers.

Here’s a scouting report and prediction for the game:

When Michigan State passes:

Three-year starting quarterback Brian Lewerke graduated and Tucker has yet to name his replacement. Redshirt junior Rocky Lombardi, redshirt sophomore Theo Day and redshirt freshman Payton Thorne are the returning scholarship quarterbacks while Noah Kim is a true freshman. Tucker mentioned all four on Tuesday when asked about the quarterback competition.

Lombardi’s overwhelming advantage in experience makes him the favorite to start against Rutgers. However, don’t be surprised if Michigan State also uses either Day or Thorne – or maybe even both – to give their younger quarterbacks a look.

Michigan State’s starting QB remains unknown amid ‘fierce competition’

The Spartans lost their top two receivers from last season but return talent at the position. Jalen Nailor is a big-play threat with starting experience but injuries limited him to only 12 games over his first two seasons. Tre Mosley stepped up the second half of last season as a true freshman and is the team’s leading receiver in terms of production after posting 21 catches for 216 yards and a touchdown in six games. Jayden Reed, a Freshman All-American at Western Michigan in 2018 who had to sit out last season after transferring to Michigan State, has the potential to take over as the team’s top receiver.

Rutgers ranked 76th in the nation in passing yards allowed per game last season at 232.5. Starting cornerback Avery Young returns after posting five pass break-ups and an interception last season. The Scarlet Knights also added Ohio State safety Brendon White as a transfer. Rutgers was 109th in the country in sacks at 1.5 per game last year. Linebacker Rashawn Battle and defensive end Elorm Lumor tied for the team high with three and both return.

When Michigan State runs:

Elijah Collins returns as Michigan State’s starting running back after a breakout season in which he had 222 carries for 988 yards and five touchdowns. Former starter Connor Heyward entered the transfer portal after four games last season but pulled his name out in February to rejoin the program. Anthony Williams Jr., a threat in space, and Brandon Wright, who is listed at 240 pounds, both burned their redshirts as true freshmen last season. The Spartans also have a pair of true freshmen in Jordon Simmons and Donovan Eaglin.

Collins should get the bulk of the carries but running backs coach William Peagler said he would like to play three to four at the position each game. Heyward should be able to carve out a role and is a valuable pass catcher while Williams and Wright present different looks.

The outlook for Michigan State’s crowded backfield this season

Whoever has the ball will be running behind an offensive line that struggled the last two seasons while battling injuries. Jordan Reid, a senior and two-year starter at right tackle, opted out of the season for COVID-19 concerns. The team still returns nine other offensive linemen who started at least one game last season and there’s a mixture of veterans and youth after starting three true freshmen at least one game last season.

Rutgers ranked 107th in the nation in rushing defense last year at 201.1 yards per game. That included giving up 109 yards on 31 carries to Collins in a 27-0 loss against Michigan State. Linebacker Tyshon Fogg returns after leading the team with 104 tackles. Lumor and Mike Tverdov return as starting defensive ends and Rutgers added Michael Dwumfour, a defensive tackle transfer from Michigan.

When Rutgers passes:

Schiano also hasn’t named a starting quarterback and the depth chart lists Artur Sitkowski or Noah Vedral. The Spartans haven’t faced either.

Sitkowski, 6-foot-5 and 224 pounds, started 11 games as a true freshman in 2018 and two last season before sitting out to take a redshirt for the year. He has completed 52.5 percent of his career passes (178-for-341) for 1,587 yards, five touchdowns and 20 interceptions.

Vedral, 6-1 and 195 pounds, began his career at UCF, followed coach Scott Frost to Nebraska for two seasons and transferred to Rutgers in the offseason. He appeared in six games with two starts last season for Nebraska and completed 65.4 percent of his passes (34-for-52) for 418 yards, zero touchdowns and zero interceptions and had 30 carries for 106 yards and three scores.

Michigan State’s revamped secondary coming together under familiar leadership

Rutgers' offense was awful last season and ranked 129th in the nation in scoring offense and total offense and 121st in passing yards per game at 139.3. Leading receiver Bo Melton returns after posting 30 catches for 427 yards and two touchdowns last season. The Scarlet Knights added receiver Aron Cruickshank as a transfer from Wisconsin and he’s listed as a starter.

Michigan State ranked 37th in the nation in passing yards allowed per game last season at 207.8 and lost a pair of three-year starters from its secondary. Free safety David Dowell graduated and cornerback Josiah Scott left for the NFL after his junior season.

Xavier Henderson returns as the starting strong safety while Shakur Brown is in position to take over as the top cornerback. There are multiple options to fill out the secondary but not much experienced depth at cornerback.

The Spartans ranked 12th in the nation in sacks last season at 3.08 per game but 22 of the 40 total belonged to seniors. Senior defensive end Jacub Panasiuk is the lone returning starter on the line and had five sacks last season.

When Rutgers runs:

The Scarlet Knights return Isaih Pacheco, who led the team with 169 carries for 729 yards and seven touchdowns last season. He had 12 carries for 36 yards against the Spartans.

Aaron Young, a former Michigan State commit who flipped to Rutgers on signing day in December 2018, is listed as the backup running back. He had 43 carries for 153 yards last season.

How Michigan State plans on replacing key losses on defense

Rutgers is rebuilding its offensive line with Nick Krimin returning as the veteran of the group. He’s also the only offensive lineman listed as a starter who weighs more than 300 pounds.

Michigan State finished 16th in the nation in rushing defense last season at 113.8 yards per game. Linebacker Antjuan Simmons returns after leading the team with 90 tackles, including 15 for a loss. The Spartans lost three-year starting defensive tackles Raequan Williams and Mike Panasiuk but Naquan Jones and Jacob Slade appear poised to step into those roles.

Special teams

Michigan State’s Matt Coghlin is a three-year starter at placekicker and looking to rebound this year. He entered last season as the program’s leader in career field goal percentage but finished 22-for-32 for the year with four misses inside 40 yards. Mitchell Crawford, an Australian graduate transfer from UTEP, is the frontrunner to take over at punter. The Spartans have a variety of options on returns, including Reed, Nailor and Anthony Williams Jr.

Rutgers has Justin Davidovicz or Guy Fava listed as the starter at placekicker. Davidovicz made 11 of 15 field goals last season with a long of 50 yards and Fava handled kickoffs while appearing in four games last season. Adam Korsak returns as the starting punter after averaging 43.8 yards per attempt with 31 downed inside the 20-yard line and 12 of at least 50 yards. Young and Avery are the top returners back on the roster but Cruickshank had two kickoff returns for touchdowns last season at Wisconsin.

Three things to watch:

Anyone out?

Tucker on Tuesday declined to say if there were any players who were already ruled out for Saturday due to positive COVID-19 testing. That possibility looms large ahead of the season opener. Since June, Michigan State athletics has released weekly COVID-19 testing results but it’s not sport-specific and there’s no indication that will change. Media members are always scanning the field with binoculars in pre-game warmups, seeing who is out there. That will be ramped up on Saturday.

Unusual environment

When the Big Ten reinstated the season, it announced there will be no fans allowed at games. Family members of players and staffers will be in attendance but most of Spartan Stadium’s 75,005 seats will be empty. Well, there will also be cardboard cutouts fans paid to have placed in seats. Most of the gameday staples are gone – no team walk to the stadium, no band, no cheerleaders, no Sparty mascot – and there will be fake crowd noise pumped into the stadium. Both teams will be tasked with creating their own energy amid the emptiness.

New looks

Tucker and Schiano are the only new head coaches in the Big Ten and both had spring practice completely wiped out by the pandemic so it’s a fitting season-opening matchup. However, it’s unclear who either team will start at quarterback and what they’ll look like scheme-wise. Michigan State had one of the worst offenses in the nation each of the last two seasons. The Spartans have a completely new staff on that side of the ball, led by coordinator Jay Johnson, so there will be plenty of interest to see what changes are made. Defensively, Michigan State has a new coordinator in Scottie Hazelton and the team has to replace seven starters on that side of the ball. It’s unclear how they’ll line up and who will be in a number of key roles.

Prediction

The Spartans got their ideal opponent to start the season. Rutgers is 0-6 against Michigan State since joining the Big Ten and has lost 21 straight conference games. However, this isn’t a game the Spartans just show up for and win. There’s a lot that needs to be worked out for both teams but Michigan State should have more talent on the field. That means holding on to give Tucker a win in his debut. Michigan State 24, Rutgers 17

Related Michigan State football stories:

Big Ten football games canceled due to COVID-19 won’t count as wins or losses

Michigan State outlines challenges of facing new-look Rutgers in opener

How Michigan State football is preparing for a season opener without fans

Mayors urge Big Ten to consider community COVID-19 data as football kicks off

Michigan State’s Mel Tucker keeping lineup under wraps with no depth chart


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