The Chicago White Sox and the Minnesota Twins were supposed to duke it out for the American League Central Division crown this season, but thanks to the Twins' struggles, this has turned into a battle of first vs. worst.
The White Sox will look to build on their six-game lead in the division when they hand the ball to Dylan Cease, while the Twins will attempt to begin their climb out of the basement by countering with Bailey Ober.
Check out our MLB free picks and predictions for White Sox vs. Twins on Monday, July 5, with first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET.
White Sox vs Twins game info
• Location: Target Field, Minneapolis, MN
• Date: Monday, July 5, 2021
• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
White Sox vs Twins odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonChicago landed on TwinSpires' odds board as slim -112 chalk, moved to -117 and back to -115, then rose to -124, where the moneyline rests at 4:45 p.m. ET today. Ticket count is just beyond 2/1 and money just shy of 3/1 on the White Sox. The total is stable at 10, with the Over taking 59 percent of tickets/62 percent of cash.
Check out the full line movement for this gameWhite Sox vs Twins betting preview
Starting pitchers
Dylan Cease (7-3, 3.75 ERA): The breakout season continues for Cease. The right-hander has been solid recently, allowing two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. That includes giving up just two runs on three hits over six innings of work to this same Twins team in his last start on June 30.
Bailey Ober (0-1, 5.84 ERA): The Twins rookie right-hander is coming off consecutive rough outings. Ober has surrendered nine earned runs on 10 hits in just 7 2-3 innings. That includes the White Sox getting to him for five runs on three dingers in that same June 30 meeting.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
White Sox: Yoan Moncada 3B (Questionable), Yasmani Grandal C (Questionable), Adam Engel OF (Questionable), Evan Marshall RP (Out), Aaron Bummer RP (Out), Eloy Jimenez LF (Out), Luis Robert CF (Out).
Twins: Nelson Cruz DH (Questionable), Josh Donaldson 3B (Questionable), Rob Refsnyder OF (Questionable), Randy Dobnak RP (Out), Luke Farrell RP (Out), Mitch Garver C (Out), Devin Smeltzer RP (Out), Byron Buxton CF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 6-0 in the White Sox's last six games when listed as a favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Twins.
Moneyline pick
The Twins ended their five-game slide with a 6-2 victory over the Kansas City Royals on Sunday night, but things get tougher again on Monday, as that skid included a three-game sweep at the hands of the White Sox, who have dominated them all season long.
The Twins and White Sox have faced nine times already this season, with the Pale Hose going an impressive 8-1, plating a ridiculous 8.44 runs per game over those nine contests.
While the Twins offense has done its part this season, their bats have not shown up in this series, scoring just 4.11 runs per game in comparison. That could continue Monday as Minnesota has had its troubles with Cease. The right-hander has allowed five runs on eight hits while striking out 14 in 11 innings in two starts against Minny this season.
Ober, on the other hand, is just finding way too much of the plate with his fastball and changeup, and as a result, ranks in the bottom 20th percentile in the MLB in hard-hit percentage and expected batting average. That won’t play well against a White Sox team that ranks fifth in batting average and ninth in OPS.
When you consider the edge the White Sox have in the bullpen and the average margin of victory over four in this series, take a shot on the Pale Hose on the runline.
PREDICTION: White Sox -1.5 (+130)
Over/Under pick
When it comes to the total, 10 may seem a bit high, but it’s nothing these AL Central rivals can’t handle. For starters, the Over is 7-2 in their nine previous meetings this season, and with the starters who are going in this one, it’s not crazy to think that number will improve to 8-1.
Cease has been solid, but has three home runs to the Twins this season, who rank third in the MLB in home runs. And while Minnesota can’t stop anyone from scoring, the team still plates 4.79 runs per game, good for 11th-best in the Bigs.
We already spoke about how potent the Pale Hose have been in this matchup this season, but that doesn’t stop against everyone else. Chicago ranks third in the MLB in scoring, plating 5.23 runs per game, and the White Sox also had their way with Ober in their last meeting. July 4th may be over, but we like the fireworks to continue in this one.
PREDICTION: Over 10 (-110)
White Sox vs Twins betting card
- White Sox -1.5 (+130)
- Over 10 (-110)
Picks made on 7/5/2021 at 1:20 p.m. ET
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