Dr. Rachel Levine has been getting asked about it every day: Is there any sign Pennsylvania’s rate of new coronavirus cases is slowing? Is the curve bending? When does she expect the peak?
Some recent numbers suggested a glimmer of hope: the daily percentage increase in cases fell for five consecutive days, from 31% on Friday to 18% on Tuesday. Then it ticked upward on Wednesday, to 20%.
Meanwhile, the growth factor, calculated by dividing each day’s new cases by the new cases on the previous day, has largely remained above 1, pointing to continued exponential growth of cases. A growth factor of less than 1 can indicate the rate of new cases is slowing.
Asked about the percentage declines, Levine, the state secretary of health, has said it’s too early to draw any conclusions. And Levine and Gov. Tom Wolf clearly remain alarmed by the rising case count, as evidenced by Wednesday’s expansion of the stay-at-home order to include every Pennsylvania county.
“This virus is spreading rapidly. It’s in every corner of our state,” Wolf said.
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They are also alarmed by the number of cases involving nursing home residents and health care workers: as of Wednesday, the count included about 200 nursing home residents and about 286 health care workers, Levine said.
Levine as of Wednesday had declined to offer any prediction of when Pennsylvania will reach a peak. She said she’s working closely with a model created by the University of Pittsburgh.
Meanwhile, state health officials are also watching a University of Washington model which, as of Thursday morning, was predicting Pennsylvania will reach a peak on April 18. [Note: an earlier version of this article incorrectly state a date of April 15]
Experts express confidence the closed schools and businesses, stay-at-home orders and social distancing guidance are achieving the desired result of slowing the increase in cases, and will eventually “bend the curve” downward. They base that in part on comparing the actual case count to projected case counts if no actions were taken.
The daily case counts are considered a lagging indicator, reflecting infections that happened about two weeks ago. Experts say it will take several weeks after restrictions are put in place for the results to begin to show in daily case counts.
That’s what Pennsylvania is watching and hoping for. Below are delay breakdowns of the some of the essential numbers.
April 1
- 962 new cases
- 5,805 total cases
- 20% increase
- 1.27 growth factor
- 74 deaths, all adults
- about 620 hospitalized since March 6
March 31
- 756 new cases
- 4,843 cases
- 18% increase
- 1.09 growth factor
- 63 deaths
- about 514 hospitalized since March 6
- about 159 needed ICU
- about 94 needed ventilators
March 30
- 693 new cases
- 4,087 total cases
- 20% increase
- 1.06 growth factor
- 48 deaths
- about 386 hospitalized since March 6
- about 110 needed ICU
- about 67 needed ventilators
March 29
- 649 new cases
- 3,394 total cases
- 23% increase
- 1.22 growth factor
March 28
- 533 new cases
- 2,751 total cases
- 24% percent increase
- 1.004 growth factor
March 27
- 531 new cases
- 2,218 total cases
- 31% increase
- .95 growth factor
March 26
- 560 new cases
- 1,687 total cases
- 50% increase
- 2 growth factor
March 25
- 276 new cases
- 1,127 total cases
- 32% increase
- 1.33 growth factor
March 24
- 207 new cases
- 851 total cases
- 32% increase
- 1.25 growth factor
March 23
- 165 new cases
- 644 total cases
- 34% increase
- 1.53 growth factor
March 22
- 108 new cases
- 479 total cases
- 29% increase
- 1.05 growth factor
March 21
- 103 new cases
- 371 total cases
- 38% increase
- 1.24 growth factor
March 20
- 83 new cases
- 268 total cases
- 45% increase
- 1.6 growth factor
March 19
- 52 new cases
- 185 total cases
- 39% increase
- 1.4 growth factor
March 18
- 37 new cases
- 133 total cases
- 39% increase
- 1.85 growth factor
March 17
- 20 new cases
- 96 total cases
- 26% increase
- 1.54 growth factor
March 16
- 13 new cases
- 76 total cases
- 21% increase
- .81 growth factor
March 15
- 16 new cases
- 63 total cases
- 34% increase
- 4.0 growth factor
March 14
- 6 new cases
- 47 total cases
- 14% increase
- .31 growth factor
March 13
- 19 new cases
- 41 total cases
- 86% increase
- 3.2 growth factor
March 12
- 6 new cases
- 22 total cases
- 38 percent increase
- 1.5 growth factor
March 11
- 4 new cases
- 16 total cases
- 33% increase
- 2 growth factor
March 10
- 2 new cases
- 12 total cases
- 20% increase
- .5 growth factor
March 9
- 4 new cases
- 10 total cases
- 67% increase
- growth factor 2
March 8
- 2 new cases
- 6 total cases
- 50% increase
- 1 growth factor
March 7
- 2 new cases
- 4 total case
- 100% increase
- 1 growth factor
March 6
- Pennsylvania registers its first 2 cases
