A new coronavirus risk warning system launched this week by a consortium of public health groups gives Anne Arundel and Maryland a “yellow” danger level.
The rating by the Harvard’s Global Health Institute and Edmond J. Safra Center for Ethics rates the danger of community spread based on the number of cases per 100,000 people using a seven-day average.
In Maryland, the latest number of cases work out to 6.8 cases per 100,000, higher than the 4.4 rating in Anne Arundel County.
Baltimore County has the highest population ratio at 11.7 per 100,000, followed by Baltimore City and Caroline County above 9. Prince George’s County has 7.8 cases per 100,000 people, and Queen Anne’s County is slightly above Anne Arundel at 4.8. The state’s lowest danger rating according to the new system is Garrett County at .5.
Dr. Nilesh Kalyanamaran, Anne Arundel County Health officer, said the tool helpful in understanding the risk in other parts of the state and country but not what’s going on at home.
“It’s not something we would use to determine how we’re doing here,” he said. “I think this is a great tool to say ‘don’t go there.'”
Worcester County, where Ocean City is located, has 3 cases per 100,000. Sussex County Delaware, home to several beach communities, has 10.4 cases. Beaches bars there have been closed as a potential hotspot.
The county and state health departments offer dashboards that include the status of many of those factors, including the number of new cases daily and the average over a week, the amount of testing and negative results, as well as the number of COVID-patients hospitalized.
Maryland confirmed 538 new cases of the coronavirus Friday, the second straight day the figure has topped 500 after being under that total for two weeks.
With the additions, the state has confirmed 68,961 cases.
A total of 5,200 people have been infected in Anne Arundel County, an increase of 21. One person died in the latest results, bring the total to 203.
Anne Arundel County was not updating its numbers Friday, citing the July 4th holiday. New results will be available Monday.
Thursday, the county positive test result rate for coronavirus cases rose slightly on Thursday, climbing from 3.77% to 3.8%.
In announcing the new risk barometer Wednesday, a network of research, policy and public health experts developed a Key Metrics For COVID Suppression framework to provide clear, accessible guidance to policy-makers and the public on how to target and suppress COVID-19 more effectively across the nation.
“The public needs clear and consistent information about COVID risk levels in different jurisdictions for personal decision-making, and policy-makers need clear and consistent visibility that permits differentiating policy across jurisdictions”, Safra center director Danielle Allen said in a prepared statement.
“We also collectively need to keep focused on what should be our main target: a path to near-zero case incidence.”
The new COVID Risk Level map shows if a county or state is on the green, yellow, orange or red risk level, based on the number of new daily cases over a seven-day average.
Yellow, or the community spread risk level, recommends robust testing and contact tracing. Anne Arundel County set up one of the earliest programs in the state, Some 92% of people contacted by the program cooperate.
However, only 0.81% of county residents are being tested. County officials this week cited limits on walk-up testing at state centers as part of the reason. On Wednesday, Maryland announced that testing at the Glen Burnie location would no longer require an appointment.
Three states are currently in the red warning level, Florida, South Carolina and Arizona. The system describes that as “tipping point,” with 25 cases or more per 100,000 and recommends stay-at-home orders. Thirteen states are in orange or the aggressive spread category.
Only one state, Vermont, is rated green, with .6 cases per 100,000 people.
