Growth rate of NJ coronavirus cases is slowing, an early sign that social distancing is working

Ashley Balcerzak
NorthJersey.com

Social distancing measures and business closures in New Jersey appear to be working in slowing the spread of the novel coronavirus, as the growth rate in positive cases is declining, Gov. Phil Murphy said Monday.

But those statistics will only hold if social distancing measures now in place continue to be followed by residents, Murphy said, adding that the state is far from seeing the end of the crisis.

That is born out in models predicting that New Jersey, in the coming weeks, will see a surge in cases and hospitalizations. How big a surge that will be depends largely on how strictly residents comply with social distancing measures being used to slow the progression of the disease.

According to a model presented Monday, New Jersey officials estimate that in a worst-case scenario, the state will see 509,000 infected individuals, reaching its surge on May 11. In the best case, New Jersey will see a peak of 86,000 cases on April 19 — doubling the current number in less than two weeks — the model predicts.

Still, there are encouraging signs.

The growth rate declined from 24% on March 30 to 12.18% as of Monday, April 6, according to New Jersey statistical estimates. As of Monday, New Jersey reported 41,090 cases and 1,003 deaths due to COVID-19 complications

See the list:NJ coronavirus cases listed by town for Bergen and Passaic counties

More on coronavirus:We've been social distancing for weeks in NJ. When will we see a change in rising cases?

Murphy said that if New Jerseyans continue strict social distancing — staying at home and 6 feet away from others — the state will have enough hospital beds to take care of patients when accounting for existing beds and new beds frantically being brought online. That includes opening previously closed hospitals and hospital wings, building field hospitals, using hotel rooms for recovered patients and even using beds on the USNS Comfort hospital ship.

If not, the state's health care system will be overwhelmed and the consequences could be "disastrous."

"If we relax our social distancing and we put ourselves on the higher curve, we will overwhelm the system to the point that all of our contingency plans, and then some, will need to go into effect," Murphy said. "Our health care system will be overrun with a surge four times what it could be. That is a nightmare scenario on a good day, but in a sustained pandemic such as this, it would be literally disastrous."

Models used to predict NJ surge

New Jersey health officials run multiple models a day to predict when hospitals will see the biggest surge in cases, so administrators can understand if their hospitals have enough medical staff, equipment and beds to accommodate all the patients who need them. The numbers can easily shift as the data or assumptions change.

More than two weeks have passed since Murphy closed all non-essential retail businesses, urged other companies to set 100% work-from-home plans and banned all gatherings. It can take up to two weeks for symptoms associated with COVID-19 to begin to show, but due to weeklong delays in test results, it may still take a few weeks to see the real impact of these social distancing measures. 

Analysts are also missing critical data points, because testing is not widespread and is limited to symptomatic individuals in New Jersey. Health officials have also not released to the public information about the number of patients who have contracted COVID-19 and then recovered, factors that can affect the models' results. 

Without any social distancing, New Jersey could have seen a peak of more than 3 million infections at one time.

Gov. Phil Murphy and health officials predict that the peak of infections could range from 86,000 to 509,000 positive cases of COVID-19.

The model also predicts that in a best-case scenario, a peak of 9,000 people could be hospitalized on April 10. In the worst-case scenario, 36,000 would need hospitalization on April 28. 

Until Friday night, health officials did not publicly release comprehensive hospitalization data.

As of Monday morning, New Jersey hospitals had 6,390 positive COVID-19 patients, with 1,505 in intensive care units, according to state Health Commissioner Judith Persichilli. That’s up from Friday night data, when 4,000 people with the virus were in New Jersey hospitals, 2,000 patients awaiting test results and 1,494 in critical care.

A new coronavirus tracker published by Rutgers University suggests that the death rate in New Jersey appears to be flattening throughout the state.

Gov. Phil Murphy showed modeling that predicted a possible peak in hospitalizations ranging from 9,000 to 36,000 patients in New Jersey.

New Jersey's projections presented Monday also show what equipment New Jersey can expect to need, but it is unclear how many of the items the state already possesses.

For instance, the state predicts it will need anywhere from 1,987 to 7,811 ventilators. As of Friday, New Jersey had 2,400 ventilators available, and on Monday, Murphy announced that the federal government would be sending an additional 500 from the federal stockpile. New Jersey also has access to a large number of anesthesia machines that can be converted into ventilators, Persichilli said, and has an outstanding request for more than 1,000 ventilators from the federal government.

New Jersey also estimates it needs 2,293 to 9,013 ICU beds. Persichilli asked all hospitals to double their critical care capacity from 2,000 to 4,000 beds, and is adding hundreds more in field hospitals and other new health care facilities being brought online in the coming weeks.

"While we are not anywhere close to being out of the woods as of yet, we are clearly on the right path to get there," Murphy said. 

Ashley Balcerzak is a reporter in the New Jersey Statehouse. For unlimited access to her work covering New Jersey’s legislature and political power structure, please subscribe or activate your digital account today.

Email: balcerzaka@northjersey.com Twitter: @abalcerzak