The chance of an El Nino in progress this winter is high in the latest forecast by the El nino forecasters.
The chance of an El Nino this winter has been placed at 70 percent. There is now even a 65 percent chance the El Nino will be officially underway by this fall.
Remember it takes a long time for the government to "officially" declare an El Nino in progress. They usually want El Nino conditions to exist for five consecutive 3-month periods. Essentially it takes eight months before an El Nino is officially declared in progress. Rarely they will declare El Nino conditions before this eight month period if the atmosphere really takes on the look of an El Nino.
Sea surface temperature anomalies on August 9, 2018
Why is an El Nino an important ocean-atmosphere condition during the northern hemisphere winter? El Nino typically produces a specific set of atmospheric weather conditions. One of those conditions is a split flow in the upper-air winds over North America during winter. That split flow is thought to be the reason why El Nino winters have a solid chance at being warmer and dryer than normal in Michigan and the entire Great Lakes region.
Since winter is a love-hate thing in Michigan, 50 percent of you just got depressed at the thought of a wimpy winter and 50 percent of you just got really excited.
Just the growing confidence in an El nino this winter isn't enough to make a call on Michigan's winter. The real important aspect is the strength of the El Nino. The stronger an El Nino, the more warming influence El Nino has on Michigan's winter.
The strength forecast right now is not enough to be confident that El Nino will warm Michigan this winter. Here is the forecast:
All of the various computer model forecasts from meteorology agencies around the world. The dark, solid blue line is the consensus forecast.
The official forecast is for an El Nino that tops out at one degree Celsius warmer than average. This would be right on the line between a moderate strength and strong El Nino. It wouldn't be warm enough to forecast a warmer than average winter in Michigan with high certainty. It would be warm enough to know that a warmer than average winter is possible.
The forecasting of ocean temperatures a few months in the future is still not real accurate. Typically we see the ocean temperature forecast change by one-half of a degree either colder or warmer as we get closer to winter.
The thing to keep an eye on is the ocean temperature forecast. If we see the models and the official forecast increasing the El Nino strength, it would be truly time to get happy or sad about Michigan's winter.