What happens when you reach a goal that has been set for nearly 20 years? Should you continue at the risk of getting stuck, or start a new phase that, inevitably, involves risks? This is Marine Le Pen's dilemma. At the end of the 2022 electoral sequence – presidential and then legislative – she and her party, the Rassemblement National (RN), have never been so strong. The far-right candidate received 41.45% of the votes (13,288,686 votes) in the second round of the presidential election, which is about 2.6 million more votes than five years earlier, in 2017.
In another never-before-seen record, 89 RN MPs were elected to the Assemblée Nationale, despite a voting system made to prevent such a result. Aware of this historic opportunity, the lepéniste MPs (those following Ms. Le Pen) are playing the card of "model" opponents at the Palais-Bourbon (where the Assemblée Nationale meets). There was a little heckling in the Hemicycle (but not too much), some outbursts (but not too many) and, very often, votes with the presidential majority, like for the bill on purchasing power.
Preferring to reason in terms of alternation rather than alternative, Ms. Le Pen explained to Le Monde that it is actually about giving an image of elected officials who are capable of governing tomorrow: "My goal is not to bring down the government, it is to replace it." She continued: "The RN is destined to become the alternate. We are capable of doing so."
This conviction goes back a long way. For almost two decades, the former lawyer has been promoting her strategy of "de-demonization." As early as 2006, in her book A Contre Flots ("Against the Waves"), she believed a party with governmental ambitions could not tolerate "lizards" or "old-fashioned people in boots and helmets, batons in hand" in its ranks. In short, it was a question of ridding the Front National (FN, the former incarnation of the RN) of what she called "Beelzebub's tunic." To make it plain: its fiery image was due, among other things, to racist and/or anti-Semitic remarks made by several of its leaders, notably her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, the president of the party at the time.
De-demonization by proxy
A little later, in 2011, when Ms. Le Pen took over the leadership of the FN, her lieutenant Louis Aliot (now RN mayor of Perpignan) explained, "Little by little, it will come. We are at the beginning of a slow process. We have to go back on 20 years of demonization. People are getting used to voting for us. Many of our voters will never return to their original political family. [The right] has a serious problem. They are victims of their inaction. And nature abhors a vacuum." Marine Le Pen summarized at the time: "We still need a few more swings, a few more shoulder thrusts" for the system to collapse.
Today, the MP of Pas-de-Calais wants to believe that this moment has come. Several events have made her task easier. First, during the presidential campaign, the emergence of Eric Zemmour and his not-so-subtle positions on Islam and immigration allowed her, by contrast, to appear more "moderate" without touching anything with regard to her political platform. The candidacy of Mr. Zemmour also attracted executives who disagree with Ms. Le Pen's political positions, providing her a double benefit: avoiding an internal crisis and rallying troops who do not reject her choices... for the time being.
Similarly, this "de-demonization by proxy" also took place when Gérald Darmanin, the minister of the interior, reproached her during a debate in 2021 for being "too soft" towards Islam.
Finally, the last stage of this process took place in the Palais-Bourbon. Thanks to their parliamentary group, RN MPs have access to important positions for the first time, such as two vice-presidencies of the Assemblée Nationale, a position on the Defense Committee and an elected parliamentarian on the Court of Justice of the Republic. These are symbolic victories that Ms. Le Pen is savoring.
Making the position 'credible'
For 20 years, Ms. Le Pen's strategy of de-demonization has always been ambivalent. Never has the Elysée candidate wanted to sacrifice the structural elements of her platform. She has simply established new priorities, such as the economic question regarding the exit from the euro (a proposal since abandoned) and the social question. The themes of security and immigration, as well as the relationship with Islam, remain unchanged and structured. They are simply less emphasized.
"Our objective is not to abandon our ideas. As soon as we can put forth legislative proposals incorporating measures from our platform, we will do so," Ms. Le Pen says today. "The voters have given us the opportunity to embody these issues. We don't want to diminish our position, but to make it credible." Jean-Yves Camus, a political scientist specializing in the far right, summed it up: "Marine Le Pen does not change any of the fundamentals of her platform, but she does not make them the alpha and omega of her parliamentary interventions."
There is no way Ms. Le Pen will become the French counterpart of Gianfranco Fini. Even now, she rejects any analogy with the Italian politician: "I am not at all like him. My goal is not to repeat the political policies of Macron," she said. It must be said that the case of Fini is an Italian particularity. The former leader of the Italian Social Movement (MSI, founded in 1946 by the last supporters of Mussolini) has deeply evolved, condemned fascism as "the absolute evil," and ended up allied with the centrists. For a long time, he was the example of a radical political leader who could become acceptable. Within the French extreme right, he was always seen as a traitor and a sellout.
One thing is certain, no modernization or stock-tacking is planned at the moment for the RN. "Marine Le Pen could take advantage of the 50th anniversary of her party [the FN was founded in October 1972] to do something like Fini did, or the Austrian FPÖ. But she does not seem to want to undertake this work," emphasized Mr. Camus. The Lepenists know that the risk of this quest for credibility is the abandoning of their radicalism and the measures (in particular, national preference and anti-immigration) that differentiate them from other parties, especially on the right.
Lack of groundwork
The battle for image is where everything happens: good presentation, being reassuring and playing off the contrast with the left-wing opposition are necessary, especially with the MPs of La France Insoumise (LFI, a far-left political party in France), who, for their part, are adept at a "firm opposition" and being loud. In the background, the meaning of the maneuver is understood: to appeal to a disoriented right-wing electorate, weary from its poor results in the presidential elections (4.78% for Valerie Pécresse) and legislative elections (62 MPs). Since her ascension to the head of the FN in 2011, Marine Le Pen believes that her party will eventually replace the right. She is still convinced of this. "The next step, for us, is the incarnation. We need this credible image to come to power. It is not enough to have someone who embodies the presidential function; we need executives who embody potential ministers," said Ms. Le Pen. "All this is cumulative. Previously, the Républicains had this image. Now we have it. We're on track. We're going to replace a lot of them."
However, the game is still very far from being won for the far-right group. The FN and then the RN have always suffered from several weaknesses – the first being a lack of groundwork. In this way, Ms. Le Pen produces very little writing. For example, her last book dates from 2012, which is an rarity for a female or male politician of this importance. At party events, there are not, as on the left, battles over policy texts. The conflicts are often personal or, at best, tactical, and more rarely are they strategic. For example, it is difficult to explain the fundamental differences between the two candidates to succeed Marine Le Pen, Jordan Bardella and Louis Aliot.
Secondly, radicalism is not so easily erased. Despite the instructions to be discreet and well-behaved, snags do occur here and there. The most recent example was the speech and comments to the press by José Gonzalez, RN MP for Bouches-du-Rhône. At 79 years old, he is the oldest member of the Assemblée and he recently opened the legislature by referring to French Algeria. Then, in front of the press, he declared: "Come with me to Algeria; I will find you many Algerians who will say: 'When are you coming back, the French?'" Before adding, "I am not here to judge whether the OAS committed crimes or not." In politics, the image – even retouched – can reveal cracks.