Ivan Nova is on a roll.
The veteran starting pitcher had himself a first half to forget, heading into the All-Star break with a 5.58 ERA that ranked as one of the highest among the game's qualified starting pitchers. But the second half has been, mostly, a different story, as Nova has shone, particularly in his last four outings.
He threw eight scoreless innings in Wednesday's win, which closed out a 5-2 road trip for the White Sox. Nova's allowed just two earned runs over his last four starts, throwing 28 innings in that span. That's an ERA of 0.64 in those four games. Not too shabby.
There are nearly two months of baseball left to be played before the White Sox move on from the 2019 season to their plans for the 2020 campaign, one that could see the team make its long awaited transition from rebuilding mode to contention mode. General manager Rick Hahn has said it's a good bet that starting pitching will be on the White Sox winter wishlist, no surprise after seeing the problems that a lack of starting-pitching depth have caused this season.
Even with the trio of Nova, Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez as mainstays — and even with Dylan Cease's addition to that group right before the All-Star break — there's been a revolving door of fifth starters, both before and since Carlos Rodon went down for the season with Tommy John surgery. And those arms have simply not gotten the job done. Ervin Santana, Manny Banuelos, Dylan Covey, Odrisamer Despaigne, Ross Detwiler and Hector Santiago (who made his first start with the White Sox this season Tuesday night, with little success) haven't been able to plug that hole in the rotation, and every time Hahn's front office has had to turn to a new option, the organization's lack of major league ready starting-pitching depth has made things difficult.
So with all that in mind, is there a chance the White Sox would want to bring Nova back for 2020?
The starting rotation figures to look different — and much more reliable — when Opening Day 2020 comes along, with Michael Kopech's return from his Tommy John surgery combined with the young trio of Giolito, Lopez and Cease. Plus, there's the team's all-but-certain pursuit of starting pitching this winter. That could mean (though it doesn't guarantee anything) a run at Gerrit Cole, the current Houston Astro who figures to be the winter's top free-agent target, a guy who is expected to command a very, very expensive contract. Will the White Sox attempt to play in that sandbox like they did with free-agent pursuits of Manny Machado and Bryce Harper last offseason?
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Even if Cole — who visits the South Side next week when the Astros come to town — isn't added to the front of the White Sox 2020 rotation, there will be other free-agent pitchers available that the White Sox might want to consider. They got an up-close look at how good current New York Met Zack Wheeler can be when he shut them down last week. The San Francisco Giants opted not to trade Madison Bumgarner, who's only a week past his 30th birthday, at the deadline. He'll be heading for free agency this winter. Dallas Keuchel, who was scooped up by the Atlanta Braves after the draft, will have another shot at free agency. Minnesota Twins All Star Jake Odorizzi is slated to hit the open market. Contract decisions could make Stephen Strasburg (player option) and Jose Quintana (club option) free agents, too.
The point is, even without Cole, the White Sox could make a significant addition or two to their rotation. But as has been painfully obvious to White Sox fans throughout the 2019 season is that there's always a need for depth.
Yes, eventually Rodon and Dane Dunning will be back from their Tommy John recoveries, and they'll be added to the 2020 starting-pitching mix. Pitching prospects could move through the farm system in a fashion that provides more major league ready depth than has existed this season. But outside additions could be made to bolster things, too. Could Nova be brought back in an attempt to create such depth? That might not even be possible if Nova commands offers from other clubs that would give him a more guaranteed rotation spot. But it'd be worth a shot, wouldn't it?
An offseason after he threw 200 innings for the White Sox, James Shields was a free agent and never became anything but. He never got a job. Now, White Sox fans had their qualms with Shields' tenure on the South Side, but with good health he would have figured to provide a more reliable presence every fifth day than the constant churn that has defined the fifth-starter spot throughout the 2019 season. At the very least, he would have provided more depth than the White Sox ended up having. Instead, they've turned to minor league free agents and players who were pitching in independent ball.
Nova might end up not fitting the bill of the job description I'm driving at, and maybe it's more realistic that a larger volume of Santana-type signings hit at the start of spring training in an effort to prevent 2019's problem from repeating itself in 2020. But Nova's been pretty good here of late. It's one stretch, sure, a small sample size. But if he can deliver these types of performances with some consistency as the 2019 season winds down, it seems that bringing him back would at least be worth a look, especially considering the impact he seems to be making in the clubhouse with a young pitcher like Reynaldo Lopez.
Things are expected to be better in 2020, with a full season of Cease, the return of Kopech and a new arm or two in the starting-pitching mix. But Kopech's next start will be just his fifth in the big leagues, and despite abundant confidence, the White Sox won't know if he's the same pitcher or not until after his recovery is complete, something to keep in mind with Rodon and Dunning, as well. And if 2020 does end in a playoff chase for these White Sox, the stakes will obviously be higher than they've been in recent seasons, when the team has been able to allow their young pitchers to work through their struggles.
Whatever the depth ends up looking like, it will be important. Maybe it will look like Nova.
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