Have we reached the peak of the coronavirus pandemic in Texas? Here's what officials say.

Statewide coronavirus hospitalizations have declined 9.6% over the past two weeks, a promising sign, but state health officials warn that the number of COVID-19 patients is still a "big concern" as the country races to vaccinate people before new, more contagious coronavirus variants spread.

Coronavirus hospitalizations in Texas peaked at 14,218 on Jan. 11. On Monday, there were 12,851 coronavirus patients in Texas, according to the most recent data from the Texas Department of State Health Services.

But the hospitalization figure ticked up from the day before and is still nearly 18% higher than Texas' summer peak, when the state health department reported a high of 10,893 patients in Texas hospitals. Hospitals across the state also continue to report that intensive care unit beds are in critically short supply, raising concerns that they'll be unable to treat Texans with the coronavirus or other illnesses.

More:Early state data point to higher vaccination rates among whites than other groups

State health department spokesman Chris Van Deusen said Thanksgiving and Christmas gatherings drove big increases in new cases, which led to the latest spike in hospitalizations and deaths across the state. More than 34,000 Texans have died from the coronavirus since the state's first confirmed COVID-19 death March 15.

The seven-day average of new cases statewide has declined, mirroring a dip in new cases nationally, but Van Deusen said Texans should remain concerned about overwhelmed hospitals and intensive care units. 

"It's really most of the state at this point that I think is still a big concern," Van Deusen said.

Across the country, 292 hospitals are reporting full intensive care units. One in five of those hospitals are in Texas, according to recent data from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. 

Hot spots

Hospitalizations have been steadily rising since early October, when an autumn surge was driven by hot spots in cities across West Texas, from El Paso to Lubbock to Abilene. Those areas have mostly recovered, although state officials established an alternate care site in Lubbock on Monday to expand hospital capacity.

Now, rising hospitalizations and cases statewide are being driven by the large metro areas, Van Deusen said. 

Related:Abbott touts vaccine rollout, treatments as COVID-19 hospitalizations remain high

Earlier this month, a field hospital set up in the Austin Convention Center began accepting patients for the first time as new coronavirus cases in Central Texas surged. But the pandemic locally has reached a plateau.

"We're just really in this uncertain time, this sort of limbo," said Lauren Ancel Meyers, director of the University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium. "We're really hoping that this is the beginning of a slowing and we'll start to see a downward trend, but really whether it goes in that direction depends on all of us. What we're doing today will impact what the numbers are a week or two from now."

UT models show hospitalization numbers statewide continuing to decline, but Meyers said the state is not out of the woods. 

"It's a good thing that the cases, the hospitalizations and the ICU are not going up as fast as they were a couple weeks ago, but there's no guarantee it's going to start to head in the right direction," she said. "It totally depends on the policies, the behavior today and in the weeks ahead."

Gov. Greg Abbott has rejected additional measures limiting businesses, instead pushing improved treatments and distribution of vaccines. 

Abbott continues to rely on a regional approach: Businesses must reduce capacity from 75% to 50% if coronavirus patients make up more than 15% of total hospital capacity in a hospital region for seven days in a row. Eighteen of 22 hospital regions in Texas, including the Austin area, have met that threshold and are under tightened restrictions, which include bar closures and halted elective surgeries.

Policy and behavior changes in recent weeks seem to have improved hospitalizations, Meyers said.

"If we keep the current policies in place and people continue to behave more cautiously than they were in November, we might actually see the numbers continue to decline," she said. "But it actually requires us to be cautious in the way we have over the last couple weeks."

Meyers said state and local officials should be role models for how to behave during the pandemic while stressing the importance of social distancing and other methods to slow the spread of the virus.

Vaccines and a new variant

Federal and state health officials are pressing to boost distribution of the vaccine as new, possibly more contagious variants of the coronavirus are raising concerns.

State health officials announced earlier this month that one variant, first identified in the United Kingdom and believed to be more contagious than more established strains of the coronavirus, was found in a Harris County man with no travel history. The variant later was identified in a Dallas County man, also with no recent history of travel outside the U.S.

"We should be concerned," Meyers said. "It's just a matter of time that we're going to be combating a more rapidly spreading variant, if we're not already." 

Vaccinations will gradually slow the spread of the virus, also leading to declining hospitalizations, said Dr. Mark McClellan, a medical advisor to Abbott on reopening the state's economy.

More than 1.5 million Texans have received at least one dose of the coronavirus vaccine, according to state health data. Roughly 29 million people live in Texas. 

McClellan, a former Food and Drug Administration commissioner, estimated that the pandemic could look better by March, but "it's not a sure thing."

State health officials reported 21,813 new cases Tuesday, and the state's seven-day rolling average is more than 15,000 cases per day. 

"Between continued high levels of transmission in many parts of the state, the new variants that are spreading and the winter weather, it's going to be a very tough month or two," McClellan said.

Staff writer Madlin Mekelburg contributed to this report.