The lead creator of a newly updated MIT model said Thursday that Connecticut’s reopening is unlikely to cause a major resurgence in COVID-19 cases, assuming some restrictions such as social distancing are kept in place.
Dimitris Bertsimas, the associate dean of business analytics at MIT and the head of the team that created the model, said Connecticut’s reopening has so far been handled “reasonably appropriately.” The reopening, therefore, is likely to only trigger a minor increase in cases, he said, which won’t be significant enough to be labeled a second wave.
“Assuming we have some reasonable measures — namely we don’t open the society completely — I don’t expect in Connecticut anyway a very significant second wave,” Bertsimas said.
While Connecticut and other parts of the country may be through the worst of the pandemic, Bertsimas still painted a bleak picture of ongoing coronavirus losses.
This week, the U.S. officially surpassed 100,000 coronavirus-related deaths. Based on his modeling work, Bertsimas estimated that number will grow to 150,000 by the end of the summer.
That number “can of course be higher or lower depending on how aggressively we open the country, especially in areas that are in high threat for a second wave,” he said.
Bertsimas said the virus trajectory after a state reopens depends mostly on timing — if states reopen when the virus is still readily spreading, then reinstating social contact is likely to trigger an explosion of cases. But if states wait until the virus is on the decline before reopening, then cases aren’t likely to significantly increase.
“Timing’s critical,” Bertsimas said.
Because of this, the model predicts that states such as Texas are on their way to a resurgence of cases. On the flip side, the model predicts that states that are reopening more cautiously, such as Connecticut, are not on their way to a second wave.
Connecticut began the first of four reopening phases on May 20. Under Gov. Ned Lamont’s plan, the next phase is slated to begin around June 20. It’s still too early to tell if the initial reopening has led to an increase in cases, although at the time of reopening experts said it would cause increased virus transmission.
Bertsimas’ predictions fit with this view — although he said he doesn’t believe Connecticut will see a large resurgence, he added there is likely to be a minor uptick.
If the state does continue to embrace “reasonable measures” to protect public health, Bertsimas said the one potential trigger for a second wave would be infected people bringing the virus back from other states or countries. To avoid this, Bertsimas advised against becoming “careless” with travel.
There are limits to Bertsimas’ predictions. He said the current version of the model can only be applied through mid-September, when the possibility of vaccines and other therapeutics will come into play. Because of its time limitations, Bertsimas’ model doesn’t eliminate the possibility of a fall resurgence in Connecticut.
Dr. Ajay Kumar, Hartford HealthCare’s chief clinical officer, said he expects there will be a virus revival at the end of the summer months.
“We expect some rise in the cases in fall and the winter time without a doubt in Connecticut, at least in my opinion,” Kumar said.
That wave could be complicated by flu season, which typically hits at the same time of year. To prepare for this possibility, Kumar said, the hospital system plans to continue efforts such as screening and testing even as the virus dwindles now.
“We are thinking about our winter and the fall planning,” Kumar said. “We have some time to go. The fight is still not over yet, we’re still not out of the woods.”
Emily Brindley can be reached at ebrindley@courant.com.
