With the midterms done, Democrats who will soon run the U.S. House of Representatives and pundits have set out on a mission that is likely to be among their top 2019 priorities: convincing President Donald Trump to enact a federal gas tax hike.
As evidence that there would be public support for a national gas tax increase, Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, and progressive commentators will likely point to what happened this year in California - where midterm voters, by a 55% to 45% margin, recently rejected a ballot measure to repeal the the state gas tax hike enacted by Governor Jerry Brown (D) in 2017.
President Trump and Congressional Republicans should not buy such arguments. In fact, the 2018 midterms provided even more evidence that gas tax hikes are a political loser. What California did demonstrate once again in 2018 is the importance of ballot measure wording.
A Survey USA-conducted poll commissioned by the San Diego Union-Tribune that was released one day before Election Day found 52% in support of Proposition 6, the measure to repeal the 2017 gas tax hike, while 40% were opposed. Yet compare the wording of the Survey USA question on Proposition 6, which found majority support for gas tax hike repeal, to what Californians actually saw in the voting booth, and the disparity between the results of that poll and the actual outcome on Election Day becomes understandable.
Here is the wording of the Survey USA question on Proposition 6:
Proposition 6 is a constitutional amendment that would repeal gasoline and diesel taxes and vehicle fees that were first enacted in 2017 and would require that any future fuel taxes be approved by voters. A YES vote on Prop 6 would repeal fuel tax increases that were enacted in 2017, including the Road Repaid and Accountability Act of 2017. A NO vote on Prop 6 would keep the fuel taxes imposed in 2017 by the California legislature in place, and would allow the legislature to impose whatever fees and taxes it approved in the future, provided 2/3 of the CA House and 2/3 of the CA Senate approved. On Proposition 6, how do you vote?”
Here is the actual wording of Proposition 6 that voters saw on their ballots:
Eliminates Recently Enacted Road Repair and Transportation Funding by Repealing Revenues Dedicated for those Purposes. Requires any Measure to Enact Certain Vehicle Fuel Taxes and Vehicle Fees be Submitted to and Approved by the Electorate. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.
The Ballot Summary: Repeals a 2017 transportation law's taxes and fees designated for road repairs and public transportation. Fiscal Impact: Reduced ongoing revenues of $5.1 billion from state fuel and vehicle taxes that mainly would have paid for highway and road maintenance and repairs, as well as transit programs.”
Statewide measures asking voters to support higher state gas tax rates also appeared on midterm ballots in Missouri and Utah. The gas tax increase proposed in Missouri was oddly paired with a tax exemption for Olympic medals. That measure, Proposition D, was rejected by more than 53% of Missouri voters.
In Utah, Non-Binding Opinion Question 1, which was an advisory measure that would not have raised the gas tax, but sought to demonstrate public support for the legislature taking action to do so, was rejected by 66% of voters.
If President Trump and members of Congress are looking for an indicator about public opinion on gas tax hikes, the 2018 midterms provided more evidence that gas tax increases are not popular with voters. In addition to the gas tax measures that went down in Missouri and Utah, a Washington State measure that would’ve raised gas prices by imposing the nation’s first carbon tax was defeated with more than 56% of Evergreen State voters rejecting it.
The good news for liberals and progressives who are determined to raise taxes on gasoline, or other goods and activities, is that they need not fear being stymied by President Trump and Republicans in the U.S. Senate. That’s because Democrats will have total control of 14 state governments in 2019 (up from total Democratic control of six state governments at present). In those states, they are free to impose their preferred policies, unencumbered by Republicans.
Hillary Clinton and other prominent Democrats have expressed strange new respect for federalism over the past two years. Even if it’s only due to necessity for many, more and more Democrats are talking about the need to advance their preferred policies at the state level.
Due to the results of the 2018, more than 104 million Americans will live in blue states where Democrats control all levers of state government and are free to impose their will. Given this, we’ll soon find out the extent to which Democrats will exercise their newfound power in statehouses from coast to coast (though mostly on the coast).
