Coronavirus Could Peak In Mid-April In Washington: Study

SEATTLE, WA —The University of Washington's latest coronavirus growth model shows the virus peaking statewide around April 19. As the Seattle Times first reported, the model still predicts around 1,400 deaths by August in Washington alone, but is significantly less grim than some of their earlier predictions for long-term growth.

The current model from the university's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation shows that, at that April 19 peak, Washington will have around 2,900 coronavirus patients. The state has enough beds to care for those patients but will need 96 more ICU beds for patients with severe symptoms. The model also predicts the state needs 236 more invasive ventilators for full treatment.

Researchers do note that these models are rapidly changing as conditions change throughout the state.

Nationwide, the peak is predicted to be earlier, but the need for beds is also much greater. If coronavirus peaks nationwide on April 14 — as the model predicts — the country will need over 232,000 beds for coronavirus patients. Right now, it's about 49,000 beds short. Similarly the U.S. will also need to add 14,000 more ICU beds and just under 19,000 ventilators to treat everyone at the outbreak's peak. Under the model, 81,000 Americans will die of the coronavirus by August 4.

That is a significant death toll, but it's a sharp decrease from some of the earlier, even more deadly predictions, which the university attributes to social distancing. Researchers say if the country continues to practice social distancing the model could hold steady or even improve. If not, its predictions could become much worse. The study concludes:

The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic, emphasizing the importance of implementing, enforcing, and maintaining these measures to mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths.

Researchers do caution these number should be taken with a grain of salt. For one, the actual number of deaths will be wildly variable: while the study currently predicts around 1,400 will die in Washington, the range of possible deaths remains large. The death toll could be as low as 300, or as high as 2,700 deaths, and the model fluctuates day-by-day as conditions change amid the outbreak. The study also assumes that every state issues a social distancing or stay at home order, which not all states have done.

In a conference Thursday, Gov. Jay Inslee was also optimistic about the positive impact social distancing has had on coronavirus growth. "So far, we have seen overwhelming compliance, and that is to be expected, I think, because Washingtonians know what it is to work together," Inslee said.

Inslee also stressed that Washington is not in the clear yet, and residents must continue to be careful and do everything in their power to slow the spread of the virus.

"We simply cannot allow this virus to be slowed, then spring back upon us," Inslee said. "We've got to pound it, and we've got to pound it until it's done."