You might have recently heard about the challenges windmill manufacturers and developers worldwide are facing. I'm not talking about incoherent claims that windmills might be linked to cancer, but rather the legitimate issues that have substantially slowed the growth of this once-promising industry. Some countries, like Germany, have seen new deployments almost come to a grinding halt.
What happened? Wind-generated power is less expensive than power from newly built nuclear reactors (and undeniably less dangerous); it is less expensive than new nuclear reactors, even without the cost of long-term storage of radioactive waste for many generations to come. And the cost of wind power has become competitive with lower-emission coal plants even as coal mining still causes tragic health issues and is a long-term burden to the environment and society.
One might think that the price collapse of solar panels over the past five to 10 years has seriously impacted large wind, but for utility-scale power production, modern multi-megawatt windmills have a much higher power density and are easier to manage than square miles of photovoltaic (PV) arrays. Especially in wind-rich northern climates where PV exhibits extended production lows in winter, wind power is certainly the preferred clean energy choice.
There are two major issues that have caused a slowdown of onshore big wind: One can be summarized as load-balancing/grid capacity, and the other one is commonly known as "NIMBY."
The Load-Balancing/Grid Capacity Issue
When you think of a country as large as the U.S., and you'd imagine all areas with reasonable wind resources are clustered with wind farms, you could theoretically supply the entire nation with clean power. The regions with stronger winds would make up for the regions with lesser winds at any particular point in time. However, the U.S. does not possess a truly national electricity grid, and the delicate task of balancing generation and load can only be realized within segments of each county. That's why inexpensive and clean wind generation has to tag team with fossil fuel power plants (mostly natural gas), which can adjust to relatively short notice for generation and demand fluctuations. This shows that unless the cost of electricity storage drops further (to less than half of what it is today), large-scale wind-power will be hard-pressed to stand on its own.
The NIMBY Issue
Although the pushback in the U.S. against big wind farms is relatively tame (as rural areas are often far from larger population centers and farmers receive financial incentives to lease the land), the "not in my backyard" (NIMBY) issue has been demonstrated in more densely populated regions.
There are many other countries where local initiatives go against the deployments of large windmills. For example, the German state of Bavaria recently passed legislation mandating large windmills to be at least 10 times the height of the turbine (the peak height of the propeller) away from human settlements (even tiny settlements). Given the percentage of land that's usable for turbines, some experts have estimated that this rule shrunk the percentage of feasible locations to .05%. I believe the replacement of old turbines will create some limited opportunity, so the reduction of new installations could actually be between 80% and 99%.
Many other initiatives in Germany have targeted the necessary construction of new high-voltage grid lines to supply the industrial south with clean energy from the wind-rich north. People simply don't want power lines anywhere near their homes.
Is Small Wind Or On-Site Generation An Alternative?
In contrast to big (utility-scale) wind power generation, there is another segment within the wind industry. On-site generation, also known as "small wind" or "distributed wind," is most commonly deployed in remote areas around the world and on many islands. However, it is increasingly attractive to customers with high electricity rates (to offset the cost) or as on-site generation for people who desire to be somewhat independent from the utility grid. Some of them for religious reasons (e.g., the Amish households that can be found in 31 U.S. states, Canada and Central America), others for concerns over future grid outages or other catastrophes.
Wind has played a noticeable role in on-site generation for quite some time. But the price collapse of PV panels has caused some serious headwinds for this small wind segment.
Another issue is that on-site small wind generators are, by definition, close to people, which means they have to be accepted by the community and their safety cannot be compromised.
One of the issues is that most certified products on the market do not exactly inspire the community with their aesthetics, and these generators are still very visible compared to PV. On the other hand, there are some fancy-looking vertical axis wind turbines (VAWTs) that are rather experimental and have not made it through the extreme rigor of any widely accepted certification. We have just recently witnessed an example of such an uncertified experimental product that was oddly erected in a densely populated area in the Bronx, New York, and fell apart only weeks after the installation.
The small wind turbine segment will only become a serious alternative once the market can deliver products that are both inspiring and safe. This will allow for people and organizations who want to make a visible and innovative statement for clean energy a safe, attractive and effective way to do so.
In summary, the big wind industry within populated areas is challenged by the increasing unwillingness to sacrifice our views and landscapes for gigantic and imposing propellers. In remote rural areas, big wind is challenged by the cost of storage and the lack of economical grid-balancing capabilities.
Within the small wind segment, we will need a fresh start, with inspiring and innovative products that can aesthetically co-exist within their respective communities. The challenge is that the actual physics and engineering of wind generators are much more complex than many designers of those inspiring new gadgets can imagine. Therefore, we are still looking forward to a product within that segment that is safe, economical and cool.
