New Orleans Pelicans at Memphis Grizzlies odds, picks and prediction

USA Today Sportsbookwire

The New Orleans Pelicans (31-37) stop by the FedExForum Monday for an 8 p.m. ET game against the host Memphis Grizzlies (34-33). Below, we analyze the Pelicans-Grizzlies odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.

NOLA have alternated between winning and losing over the last five games with the latest being a 112-110 victory last night at the Charlotte Hornets.

The banged-up Pelicans are cashing tickets for backers, however, NOLA is 8-2 against the spread in the past 10 games.

Memphis has won two of its past three games but is just 3-5 overall and ATS in the last eight contests. The Grizzlies are a half-game back of the eighth-place Golden State Warriors and 3.5 games in front of the 11-seed Pelicans.

NOLA is on the outside looking into the playoff picture as they trail the 10th-place San Antonio Spurs for the final spot in the play-in tournament.

The Pelicans have beaten the Grizzlies in five straight meetings (5-0 ATS), all of which after Memphis drafted Ja Morant in 2019.

Pelicans at Grizzlies: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:10 p.m. ET.

Money line : Pelicans +333 (bet $100 to win $333) | Grizzlies -450 (bet $450 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS : Pelicans +9 (-110) | Grizzlies -9 (-110)
Over/Under : 230.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Pelicans at Grizzlies: Key injuries

Pelicans

SG Josh Hart (thumb) questionable
SF Brandon Ingram (ankle) questionable
C Steven Adams (toe) questionable
PF Zion Williamson (finger) out

Grizzlies

SG Grayson Allen (abdomen) out

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Pelicans at Grizzlies: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Grizzlies 114, Pelicans 110

Money line (ML)

PASS because there's no way I'd lay it with Grizzlies (-450), or with any team for that matter, and I cannot talk myself into sprinkling on Pelicans (+333) even though I "lean" to NOLA plus the points.

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Against the spread (ATS)

If I knew Adams was playing in this game then I'd probably "like" NOLA to cover here, but at the moment, I just "LEAN" to the PELICANS +9 (-110) for a half unit.

Adams playing could effectively neutralize Memphis' biggest advantages, which are its dominance on the glass and in the paint.

The Grizzlies score the most paint points per game and the most second-chance points per game (the Pelicans are second in both), however, NOLA has the second-best rebounding rate in the Association.

Grizzlies big Jonas Valančiūnas has been a force on the interior all season long, but Adams doesn't take a backseat to any big in the strength department.

In fact, Adams holds Valančiūnas to just 7.2 rebounds per game across their 15 career head-to-head meetings, and his presence would allow NOLA to extend its shaky perimeter defense vs. a poor shooting Memphis team.

The Pelicans are 26th in defensive effective field goal shooting (eFG%) and the Grizzlies are just 22nd in eFG%.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET the UNDER 230.5 (-110) for 1 unit if Adams plays, if not then it's only a "lean" for a lighter wager.

The market is barreling into the Over and, according to Pregame.com, more than 95% of the early morning money is on the Over, which has steamed the total up from the 225-point opener.

I envision the Pelicans-Grizzlies being a "rock fight" with neither team being able to get easy buckets or getting to the foul line.

The officiating crew assigned to call this game has a combined 54-77 O/U record this season and NOLA's fourth-highest FTA/FG rate is almost solely based on Zion wreaking havoc.

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