Mandaloun, left, with Florent Geroux up, nearly snags the subsequently disqualified 2021 Kentucky ... [+]
That the third running of the $20-million Saudi Cup, with a post time of 12:30 p.m. ET (8:30 p.m. Riyadh) on February 26, has drawn a patchwork quilt of talent and also-rans out of the woodwork to its full field of fourteen was widely expected, since the one-turn race is — right now, until some other promoters cook up a brighter idea — the horse race with the world’s richest purse. The winner’s share of that is a reported, flat 50%, or $10 million, not a bad deal for a less than two minutes’ furious work over 1800 meters, or in American terms, just about nine furlongs — 8.9 to be exact.
The trick will be to win it, or to come very close, and that project will be more than a little challenging given this helter-skelter crush of a field. In the broad strokes, the race is pitting a bushel of apples against a crate of oranges with a few boxes of bananas and papayas thrown in — a passel of unlike competitors, to say the very least. It’s fair to say that Mandaloun — 2021’s Kentucky Derby place horse (and its declared winner, after the infamous disqualification of first-placer Medina Spirit via multiple failed drug tests) is a favorite. Arguably the second favorite, or at least a top contender, is the Irish-bred five-year-old Mishriff, the defending 2021 Saudi Cup winner, who is at ease on the turf and the dirt in England and in France but who has not gone up against very many tough Kentucky-breds. He’ll meet a few on his Saturday evening run in Riyadh.
Bunched around and behind those two is the proverbial international grab-bag — in this field serious horse people and armchair handicappers alike will encounter a kind of metric-free, year-abroad student roster, to wit: Marche Lorraine, from Japan; T O Keynes, also Japanese; Brazil-born Aero Trem, who races in South America; Sealiway, from France; and two more familiar American contenders in Midnight Bourbon and Art Collector. Before we call in the Bluegrass Wise Man to help us wade through this field’s abilities and questions, herewith, a refresher on post positions and the current (London) odds. All forms of gambling being illegal in the kingdom, there are no track odds, thus no “morning line.”
Without further ado, herewith, the Bluegrass Wise Man ™, a lifelong Kentucky horseman and owner who has been so generous with his horse sense with us in seasons past.
Post Postion, Horse, Odds
1) Country Grammer, 12-1
2) Aero Trem, 33-1
3) Midnight Bourbon, 8-1
4) Real World, 10-1
5) Emblem Road, 66-1
6) Mandaloun, 4-1
7) Magny Cours, 10-1
8) T O Keynes, 6-1
9) Art Collector, 7-1
10) Making Miracles, 66-1
11) Sealiway, 14-1
12) Secret Ambition, 16-1
13) Marche Lorraine, 12-1
14) Mishriff, 2-1
(Source: BoyleSports, 25 February 2022)
Without further ado, herewith, the Bluegrass Wise Man ™, a lifelong Kentucky horseman and owner who has been so generous with his horse sense with us in seasons past.
So, Mandaloun. As I remember you were high on Mandaloun for last year’s Derby.
Bluegrass Wise Man ™: You’re right, I remain a fan of Mandaloun, but let’s set up the battle. Mandaloun’s primed for a big year. Won his last three, his first race this year, and he’s just turning four, okay? Mishriff is last year’s defending champion out there in Saudi, but getting on. Older is not necessarily bad, but it’s also not necessarily wiser, is what I’m saying. If he wins he will double his already considerable lifetime earnings, but that doesn’t mean much out on the track, or to him, really. I think Mandaloun can take him. Mishriff can run on anything, but Mandaloun is a dirt horse. Dirt, you know? From what I’m hearing, this is a deep, padded dirt track. You’re gonna have to love it to do well on it.
Let’s back up a minute and talk about the hurdles of shipping out to the kingdom.
Bluegrass Wise Man ™: As they say in Kentucky, it ain’t easy by a long shot. First, it’s eight time zones away. The horses don’t really know they’re “going” anywhere that far away when they head up the ramp, they just know that things are different when they get there, and that means everything, water, air, food and topography. As civilized as the King Abdulaziz track and stables are, and they are civillized, they’re different. Hell, the gates are different. They’re narrower, which means there’s no room in there for a handler. Horses have to acclimatize, and school, to deal with those kinds of things. That’s why the trainers and handlers are all paying close attention to how they eat or whether they’re off their food, how much water they’re consuming, things like that. From what I’m hearing them say, most of them are handling it well and aren’t, for instance, off their feed. But most of the real works have been put in at home. They’re just there to maintain form before the race, breezing, galloping and whatnot, and to get to know the place.
How do you see the race playing out. Know that I will ask you that again, closer to post time, so go big.
Bluegrass Wise Man ™: Bit short for some of these horses, one turn. But lemme tell you, nine furlongs can be deceiving. You get in the middle or you get crushed at the break and you think, can we ever get out of this? At the same time, you have to get your business done because that finish line is running at you, so to speak. So, deep track, big field, a relatively short mile and a little, and that means there’s gonna be traffic. Lots of it in, at the break, in the middle, in the stretch. Midnight Bourbon and Mandaloun have tactical speed and like to be up front. I see some speed in the American horses. Mandaloun will have to run his Kentucky Derby all over again, but better, to come out on top, and it looks like he’s going to do that with the way he has been deepening and honing his talent lately. Mishriff, for me, is a real question. Can he repeat this? I guess he could, and I like his past performances when I study them, but somehow I just don’t trust him as much as I trust the strength and form Mandaloun has been showing.
Where does that leave us?
Bluegrass Wise Man ™: Mandaloun is not on the rail, but right in the middle of the pack there, Mishriff drew the fourteen hole, way outside, in other words. So, Mishriff will be crushing in fast at the break, and Mandaloun will have to take care not to get boxed in or bumped in the crush. It’s going to be a bit chaotic, like the start of the Kentucky Derby. Beyond that, I think Mandaloun’s connections just want him to get comfortable up toward the front and then bring his run. He can do it if he wants to. His question is whether he wants that.
