Why Auburn baseball will – and won’t – win Auburn NCAA Tournament Regional

AUBURN — Auburn baseball's surprising season will be rewarded with home-field advantage in an NCAA regional this weekend, but the No. 14 overall seed has its sights set on a deep run.

Here's why the Tigers (37-19) will and won't win their regional against UCLA, Florida State and Southeast Louisiana. 

Why Auburn will win regional

1. Auburn wins close games.

Auburn finished with a minus-28 run differential in conference play, but throughout the season, that didn't matter.

The Tigers were tough. They were 16-7 in one- or two-run games. Usually when they lead late, they hang on. They boast the SEC saves leader, Blake Burkhalter. In 38⅓ innings, opponents' on-base percentage against him is .196.

Coach Butch Thompson expects Trace Bright and Joseph Gonzalez to start the first two games of the regional. Behind them, the bullpen is potent if ad-libbing is ever required. Reliever Carson Skipper made his first start in the SEC Tournament, striking out seven in three one-hit innings.

2. Home-field advantage works more ways than one.

Auburn is 22-9 at Plainsman Park and has won 10 of its last 12 home games.

But that's not all that matters. By hosting, the Tigers get to start Friday (6 p.m., ESPN+) against the lowest seed in the regional, Southeast Louisiana (30-29). Meanwhile UCLA and Florida State face off in the first round (11 a.m., ESPN2). 

The Seminoles (33-23) have two strong pitching options in , with Bryce Hubbart (8-2, 3.18 ERA) and Parker Messick (6-5, 3.36), who has struck out 140 and walked just 16 in 93⅔ innings.

The second-seeded Bruins (38-22) have an all-conference starter in Max Rajcic (8-4, 3.08), who averages 5.64 innings per start, and two all-conference relievers. Alonzo Tredwell and Ethan Flanagan are a mountain to climb when trailing. But both teams might feel more pressured to burn arms getting through each other.

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Why Auburn won't win regional

1. Opponents are minimizing Sonny DiChiara's impact.

Auburn has a bat capable of changing any game in an instant. When the Tigers trailed Kentucky 1-0 in the eighth last weekend, Sonny DiChiara seemingly saved the day with a game-tying bomb. He has 18 homers and 48 RBIs while leading college baseball in on-base percentage (.556).

But he has struggled lately. In the last 12 games, he is 6-for-39. Five of those hits are home runs. Four of them are solo. 

If opposing pitchers can keep Auburn from getting baserunners in front of DiChiara, they can pitch around "Sonny D" (he has walked 11 times during this stretch). Or, at least, they can limit his occasional damage to solo shots. Auburn's lineup depth behind him is inconsistent.

2. UCLA is steady up and down the lineup.

The Bruins infielders lead an onslaught of tough outs. Shortstop Cody Schrier, first baseman Jake Palmer and catcher Darius Perry were all-conference. Nobody on the roster hit more than 10 home runs this season, but six players with 100 or more at-bats had an OBP of at least .390.

That's the lineup that went viral for erasing a nine-run deficit in the ninth inning against Oregon State. UCLA is Auburn's top challenger, a team that can wear anyone down.