Buying or Selling Vegas Title Odds of Every AP Top 10 CBB Team

There are three mid-majors in the Top Five of the latest men's college basketball Associated Press Top 25 and Penn State has ascended into the Top 10 for the first time in nearly a quarter-century, but which ones would you actually buy as candidates to win the national championship?

Using the latest title odds from Caesars Palace, we've meticulously pinpointed which teams are good value buys and which ones you shouldn't touch with a 10-foot pole.

To reiterate: The buying/selling verdict is based on the current gambling odds. Just because we're buying Florida State at 35-1 and selling Gonzaga at 6-1 doesn't mean we think the Seminoles are more likely to win it all, nor that we would necessarily pick them to beat Gonzaga on a neutral floor.

Rather, it's all about trying to decipher proper value, using a combination of biggest strengths and weaknesses to try to figure out which teams have the best shot at a deep run regardless of path.

Teams are listed in ascending order of current AP ranking.

Title Odds: 18-1

Reason to Buy

Well, it's Kentucky. Though it hasn't been to the Final Four since 2015, it has been to seven Elite Eights in the past decade. Even when it isn't the favorite, this team is almost always one of the most viable contenders to win it all.

Moreover, John Calipari has turned what has been his team's biggest weakness in previous years into arguably the biggest strength of this year's iteration. The Wildcats can kill you with free throws, shooting 79 percent as a team and averaging slightly more than 24 attempts per game. They want to bully you into submission while driving the ball down your throat, and they often do.

Reason to Sell

Outside of Immanuel Quickley, Kentucky does not shoot well. In Saturday's close game at home against Ole Miss, the Wildcats were 2-of-22 from three-point range. It was their seventh time shooting below 20 percent from deep.

And aside from maybe the season-opening win over Michigan State, there has not been a single point at which the Wildcats asserted themselves as one of the top threats to win it all. Their next-best wins were overtime games against Louisville and Texas Tech. The losses to South Carolina, Utah and especially Evansville are hard to forget, too.

Verdict: Selling. As far as KenPom.com efficiency ratings are concerned, Kentucky is barely even a second-round team at No. 30. Like the Dallas Cowboys or the New York Yankees, this team's title odds are always a bit off due to the amount of public money wagered on them. But even at 25-1 or 30-1, I wouldn't be enthralled here.

Title Odds: 28-1

Reason to Buy

There might not be a better frontcourt duo than Penn State's Lamar Stevens and Mike Watkins. The former has scored in double figures in every game this season. The latter is much more of a defensive presence, but he has put up at least 15 points enough times (seven) that opponents need to make plans to slow down his offense, too.

This is more than just a two-man team, though. Penn State legitimately runs nine deep. And the eighth- and ninth-most used Nittany Lions—John Harrar and Seth Lundy—combined for 31 points in a recent win over Purdue. This team is red-hot, in part because it has so many scoring options.

Reason to Sell

While there are several other atypical programs in the current Top 10—Dayton and San Diego State, in particular—at least each of the other nine teams has been to the NCAA tournament in the past three years. Penn State hasn't gone dancing since 2011 and hasn't won a tournament game since 2001.

The Nittany Lions should end both of those droughts, but with the exception of Loyola-Chicago and South Carolina, no one waltzes into the tournament for the first time in a long time and goes to the Final Four. There's just something about the gravity of the tournament that eventually weeds out those who haven't been there before.

Also, with the exception of Myles Dread (88.9 percent), the thought of anyone on this roster trying to salt away a late lead at the free-throw line is a horrifying proposition.

Verdict: Selling. I like this team a lot and will probably be pulling for the Nittany Lions to make a deep run, because it would be just as much of a fun, unexpected story as Auburn's Final Four run last year. But I'm a firm believer in the "Reason to Sell" part of this argument. You don't win the tournament if no one in your program has experienced it.

Title Odds: 35-1

Reason to Buy

You've got to appreciate a defense that can keep the opposition from even getting shots at the rim thanks to either blocks or steals, and Florida State thrives in both departments. The Seminoles are leading the nation in block percentage and rank in the top 10 in steal percentage, which is a deadly combo. They average a combined 14.8 blocks and steals per game, which is even better than what Kentucky managed in 2014-15 (13.4) while defending its way to a 38-1 record.

Florida State's sheer roster depth is also an admirable attribute. It keeps any individual Seminole from getting much national attention, but Leonard Hamilton's team has 11 players who have logged at least 200 minutes this season. They just come at you with waves of athleticism for 40 minutes—hence all the blocks and steals.

Reason to Sell

This team seems to have a complete dud on offense at least once every three games. The overall numbers/averages are fine, but the game-to-game consistency is alarming. Just over the past 11 games, here's the Seminoles' chronological point total: 78, 54, 83, 85, 56, 74, 65, 99, 65, 80, 82.

Sure, the two games in the 50s were against Virginia, but they have been held to 66 points or fewer 10 times. And that has been their curse in the NCAA tournament over the years. They were held to 58 by Gonzaga in last year's Sweet 16, 54 in the loss to Michigan the previous year and lost 91-66 to Xavier the March before that.

Verdict: Buying. I'm not a huge believer in Florida State, but 35-1 is preposterously great value for a team that won at Louisville and that almost won at Duke. Giving the Seminoles worse odds than the likes of Auburn, Arizona and West Virginia seems a little ridiculous.

Title Odds: 22-1

Reason to Buy

Maryland is alone in first place in what might be the best conference ever, and the lead guard/big man combo of Anthony Cowan and Jalen "Stick" Smith might be the best in the country this season. In Saturday's road win over Michigan State, the former scored the final 11 points of the night to finish with 24 while the latter did his usual thing with 17 points and 10 rebounds.

Smith's length in the paint (2.3 blocks per game) is also a big reason Maryland boasts one of the stingiest defenses. Only two opponents—late-January road games against Northwestern and Indiana—have shot 45.0 percent or better against the Terrapins. They don't force many turnovers, but they pressure almost every shot taken.

Reason to Sell

First and foremost, it's Maryland. In NCAA tournaments dating back to 2004, the Terrapins are 0-7 against teams seeded No. 6 or better. Granted, Virginia was in a similar drought prior to breaking through and winning it all last year, but that hardly guarantees Maryland will do the same.

In less ancient history, this year's team doesn't shoot well. Smith is efficient and Cowan possesses the clutch gene in defiance of his mediocre percentages, but the rest of the primary six-man rotation is just OK. As a result, the Terps have had some dreadful offensive performances, including the losses to Seton Hall and Wisconsin in which they held their opponent to 52 and 56 points, respectively.

Verdict: Selling. There's a fine line between battle-tested and fatigued, and the top teams from the deepest leagues tend to land in the latter bucket after getting challenged twice per week for more than two months. That's of particular concern for Maryland, which only has six players averaging more than 10 minutes per game. Throw in the lack of a reliable third scorer, and you'd need to give me at least 28-1 odds to want a piece of that action.

Title Odds: 9-1

Reason to Buy

Duke might be the most well-rounded team in the country, which makes it the biggest threat to win the national championship. It ranks top 10 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency on KenPom.

On offense, the triumvirate of Tre Jones, Vernon Carey Jr. and Cassius Stanley has been virtually unstoppable—with Matthew Hurt pouring in 20 points from time to time, too. Led by Carey, the Blue Devils are also outstanding on the offensive glass. And while they don't shoot a ton of threes, almost everyone who plays is able to stretch the floor.

On defense, Jones and Jordan Goldwire are the epitome of peskiness along the perimeter, forcing a lot of turnovers and rarely allowing a clean look at a three-pointer. Duke doesn't block as many shots as it did last season, but it does have five players who have each rejected at least 16 field-goal attempts.

Reason to Sell

Though not a nightly issue, Duke has been plagued by sloppiness on offense at times. Florida State had 16 steals against the Blue Devils last week and would have won that game if it could've bought a bucket. Duke also committed 13 live-ball turnovers in each of the losses to Louisville and Stephen F. Austin.

It's also concerning that Carey has been battling foul trouble with more regularity over the past month, averaging 3.9 personals during a recent seven-game stretch. So much of what Duke does depends on him, and it's starting to feel like there will be at least one game in the tournament in which he picks up two early fouls, forcing the Blue Devils to reach deep into their bag of tricks to avoid an upset.

Verdict: Buying. The early loss to Stephen F. Austin will never not be a red flag, but this is starting to feel like the 2014-15 Duke team that battled through a rough stretch in January, won an overtime game against North Carolina in February and eventually won it all. Wednesday's 22-point loss at NC State was hard to watch, but that has almost become a rite of passage for Duke's championship teams. It lost by 14 in Raleigh in 2010 and by 12 in 2015.

Title Odds: 15-1

Reason to Buy

With an effective field-goal percentage of 59.4, Dayton is the best shooting team in the nation. Despite playing at a tempo near the national average, the Flyers rank ninth in points per game and have scored at least 70 in all but one contest.

Dayton is particularly unstoppable inside the arc, making 61.9 percent of its two-point attempts. In KenPom history dating back to the 2001-02 season, 2015-16 Belmont (62.6 percent) is the only team to finish a season at 62 percent or better. That Obi Toppin fella is some kind of special.

And for what it's worth, Dayton battled neck-and-neck with Kansas for about 44 minutes on a neutral court in Hawaii before succumbing in overtime to the Jayhawks. The Flyers haven't faced much NCAA-worthy competition in the Atlantic 10 this year, but they impressed in their biggest nonconference opportunity.

Reason to Sell

Dayton's defense isn't great. It might look like the Flyers have improved over the past two months, but that's probably just a product of playing in the A-10. Only two other teams in the conference rank in the top 75 in adjusted offensive efficiency. One of them (Davidson) hasn't faced Dayton yet, and the other (Richmond) put up 79 against the Flyers.

Dayton is also just OK at the "other" parts of offense aside from shooting, which is why it has struggled against long, physical opponents like Saint Louis. Give this team space and it'll kill you every time. Get in the Flyers' face and you'll likely hold them below 75. And given their question marks on defense, that should be enough to beat them.

Verdict: Neither. Dayton is clearly in the top tier of six teams, but it's also clearly at the bottom of that tier. 15-1 feels exactly right for the Flyers. If forced to pick a side, I'd probably lean selling because the national champ always ends up in the top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency, and this team isn't close to that at the moment.

Title Odds: 15-1

Reason to Buy

Well, for starters, San Diego State hasn't lost a game yet. That seems good, no?

Not only are the Aztecs undefeated, but most of those wins were relatively uncontested. They've only had three games decided by fewer than nine points, which is a testament to how strong they are on both ends of the floor.

We're used to this program thriving on defense, but the offensive efficiency fueled by former major-conference transfers has been a surprising development. If not National Player of the Year, Malachi Flynn (from Washington State) deserves to at least be a first-team All-American, and Yanni Wetzell (Vanderbilt) has been one heck of a second fiddle in the paint, shooting better than 60 percent from the field.

Reason to Sell

The Mountain West curse is a little terrifying. In two decades of existence, this conference has never been represented in the Elite Eight, let alone with a national championship.

And while SDSU has had a few impressive victories over BYU, Iowa, Creighton and Utah State, it has yet to face an opponent currently projected for a No. 4 seed or better. There's always the Aztecs get a more favorable draw, but they would have to win four consecutive games against that caliber of opponent if things play to form.

Verdict: Buying. The undefeated Aztecs have no clear weakness, and there's no good reason for them to be this far behind the foursome of Baylor, Duke, Gonzaga and Kansas. Something in the 10-12 range is where they belong, so getting 15-1 is just free value.

Title Odds: 7-1

Reason to Buy

Kansas' defense is outstanding. Best in the nation as far as KenPom is concerned, in fact. Marcus Garrett has become the college basketball equivalent of "Revis Island," and Udoka Azubuike is one of the best at both blocking shots and corralling defensive rebounds. Devon Dotson and Ochai Agbaji aren't exactly lackadaisical on that end of the floor, either, combining for nearly four steals per game.

Only two opponents have put up more than 71 points against the Jayhawks, and even that wasn't enough for Dayton or Texas Tech to pull off the upset. That's because Kansas can also catch fire on offense, like it did this past Saturday against Oklahoma. (Although, banking on Garrett to repeat that 6-of-9 three-point performance is likely to result in disappointment.) But remember the 28-turnover game against Duke to open the season? Kansas hasn't coughed up the ball more than 16 times since December.

And perhaps most noteworthy of all, the Jayhawks are the most battle-tested team in the country, boasting 10 Quadrant 1 wins against the toughest strength of schedule. They also faced the most difficult schedule last season, but they were nowhere near this successful against it.

While schedule fatigue is a legitimate concern for Maryland in a conference with 12 tournament candidates, Kansas hasn't needed to deal with a league anywhere near that deep. The Jayhawks haven't even played consecutive games against KenPom Top 35 opponents since early December. They should be fine.

Reason to Sell

Both three-point shooting and free-throw shooting have been a serious adventure at times. In the first four games of February, Kansas shot 14-of-52 (26.9 percent) from beyond the arc and 53-of-78 (67.9 percent) from the charity stripe. And we're not talking about a brief stretch skewed by a particularly poor performance. The Jayhawks were below 31 percent and 71 percent, respectively, in all four contests.

Granted, they won all four of those games, but they're leaving themselves open to a potential upset with shooting performances like those.

Verdict: Buying. Kansas was my preseason pick to win the national championship, and it has done nothing to dissuade that notion. The offense occasionally struggles, but defense won a title last year (Virginia). It could certainly happen again.

Title Odds: 6-1

Reason to Buy

Gonzaga's offense is the best in the nation, and it's not that close.

With seven players averaging better than 10 points per game, opposing defenses basically need to pick their poison and hope for the best. Five of those seven guys shoot at least 35 percent from distance, and five make more than 56 percent of their two-point attempts. Can't zone 'em. Can't throw double-teams at 'em. And they're 26-0 when scoring at least 65 points.

You also can't count on manufacturing points against their defense, as the Zags rank top 20 in both defensive rebound percentage and defensive free-throw rate. Even when they lost to Michigan, the Wolverines ended that one with two made free throws and seven offensive rebounds.

Reason to Sell

While second-chance points and trips to the charity stripe are few and far between, Gonzaga's defense is far from elite. It's not terrible, but it's not "championship level."

In eight games against KenPom top 100 foes, Gonzaga allowed 599 points (74.9 per game) on 588 possessions. Michigan shot 54 percent from the field against the Bulldogs. Washington and BYU both shot 50.9 percent. Even Cole Anthony-less North Carolina shot 45.6 percent and put up 81 points.

It's a good thing the Zags can score at will, because they almost need to in order to make up for this defense.

Verdict: Selling. Put the odds at 9-1 and I'm more than likely buying, because I believe Gonzaga is on the short list of serious candidates to win it all. But putting the Zags ahead of Duke and Kansas as the singular favorite doesn't feel right—even though they're going to get to play their first two games in Spokane. Elite offenses almost always eventually hit a dry spell in the tournament, and I don't quite trust this defense to hold up when that day comes.

Title Odds: 19-2

Reason to Buy

Baylor's defense is no joke. Shooting 40 percent against this team is a luxury, and eclipsing 46 percent is almost impossible, only accomplished once (47.1 percent by Oklahoma State) in the past 19 games. During that stretch of nearly three months, the Bears have held opponents to a meager 56.2 points.

This is also one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation, re-collecting nearly 37 percent of its own misses.

Both Freddie Gillespie and Mark Vital have been indispensable assets on both ends of the floor, and Tristan Clark is settling nicely into his new role as a backup big man playing in short spurts. The Bears could get even better as he continues to come along in his return from various lower-leg injuries.

Reason to Sell

Baylor does not shoot well. We're talking barely at the national average in effective field-goal percentage and well below the mean both from two-point range and the free-throw line.

The overall offensive numbers look fine because they're so tenacious on the offensive glass, but what happens when the Bears run up against an opponent that doesn't allow many second-chance opportunities? Baylor has only faced one team in the top 50 in defensive rebounding percentage, and it was held to 53 in that game against Butler.

Verdict: Buying. Hopefully you already jumped on Baylor before now. Per Action Network, the Bears opened the season at 50-1 and were 25-1 in early January before the marquee road win over Kansas. But there's still decent value in getting nearly 10-1 odds on the No. 1 ranked team that hasn't lost in 22 games.