California workers who are unemployed amid coronavirus-linked business shutdowns have grown sharply more pessimistic that they will regain the jobs they lost, a new study determined.
About 61 percent of the California workers who filed new unemployment claims during the week that ended on July 25 reported that they expected to be recalled by the employers who had laid them off or furloughed them, according to a report prepared by the California Policy Lab at UC Berkeley and UCLA.
That’s a drop from the 80 percent who expected to be recalled to their jobs during the week that ended on March 15.
Most of the initial claims for unemployment benefits filed during the week that ended July 25 were from workers who were re-opening a jobless claim that they had previously filed, according to the study prepared through a partnership of the California Policy Lab and a unit of the state’s Employment Development Department.
The researchers believe these were people who had been furloughed, might have gone back to work when government agencies re-opened large swaths of the California economy, then were shoved back into unemployment when the businesses were shuttered once again.
“These individuals likely found or returned to work temporarily after their original unemployment insurance claim, but then re-filed their claims as their hours or positions were cut again in response to communities re-instituting restrictions,” said Till von Wachter, a co-author of the analysis, which was released Thursday.
About 57 percent of the unemployment claims filed during the week that ended on July 25 were jobless claims by people who were re-opening an older filing, the researchers determined.
“However, it’s become apparent that for the individuals who have been lucky enough to return to work, they’re seeing that this new employment is especially unstable,” von Wachter said.
The gyrations in government decisions about what should re-open, what should shut down again, or what are the restrictions for a re-opened business has eroded the confidence people might typically have regarding the job market in the Bay Area and California generally.
“The uncertainty surrounding the pandemic is leading to more people cycling in and out of the unemployment insurance system,” von Wachter said.
Since government-imposed business shutdowns began in mid-March, about 7.31 million California workers have filed initial claims for unemployment benefits. During the week that ended July 25, about 244,600 California workers filed initial claims for unemployment benefits, the government reported.
Of the unemployment claims filed by California workers who were re-opening a previously filed claim, 56 percent were filed by females, 49 percent were filed by workers 34 years of age or younger, and 44 percent were filed by Hispanic workers.
“The COVID-19 crisis in the labor market continues to have a disproportionate impact on women, younger workers, lower-educated workers, and Hispanic workers, and Black workers,” California Policy Lab researchers determined.
