College football Week 12 has some high-profile matchups, but an expected blowout is causing the most consternation for Las Vegas oddsmakers. Covers checks in on several of Saturday’s games, with insights from Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US.
No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes at Rutgers Scarlet Knights – Open: -52; Move: -52.5; Move: -53
Ohio State is 9-0 SU and tied for No. 1 in the nation with an 8-1 ATS mark. In Week 11, the Buckeyes boatraced Maryland 73-14 as 42.5-point home favorites, cashing for the eighth straight week.
On the flip side is a Rutgers squad that’s 2-7 SU and ATS, with six of those seven setbacks by 28 points or more. The Scarlet Knights are coming off a bye, after a 38-10 loss at Illinois as 18.5-point road underdogs.
While the full-game pointspread is certainly an issue at William Hill US, it’s actually the first-half spread that’s creating massive liability. Ohio State is 9-0 ATS in first halves this year.
“We need the Scarlet Knights, and we’re gonna need them big, especially in the first half,” Bogdanovich said of this 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff. “There are a zillion bets. It might be our biggest decision of the day, Ohio State first half.”
The first-half line went up Thursday morning at Ohio State -31.5. By Friday morning, the line was 35.5, helped along by a mid-five-figure Buckeyes spread bet.
“And we’ve got six figures in parlays and mounting, all first half,” Bogdanovich said.
No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs at No. 13 Auburn Tigers – Open: +3; Move: +2.5; Move: +3
Georgia is out to prove it’s the best one-loss team, in the event a one-loss team gains acceptance to the College Football Playoff. The Bulldogs (8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS) rolled over Missouri 27-0 as 18.5-point home favorites last week.
Meanwhile, Auburn and its two losses can only hope to play Southeastern Conference and CFP spoiler. The Tigers (7-2 SU and ATS) are coming off a bye week, after a lackluster 20-14 win over Mississippi as 17-point home faves.
“It’s dead even, and pretty good action,” Bogdanovich said of another 3:30 p.m. ET start. “I’d imagine we’ll need Auburn, but I doubt it’ll be one of our bigger decisions.”
No. 7 Minnesota Golden Gophers at No. 22 Iowa Hawkeyes – Open: -3; Move: None
Minnesota hopes to dodge the obvious letdown spot, after posting one of the biggest wins in program history last week to stay in the Big Ten title/CFP conversation. In a battle of unbeatens, the Golden Gophers (9-0 SU, 6-2-1 ATS) toppled Penn State 31-26 as 6.5-point home underdogs.
Much like Auburn in the SEC, Iowa is now in spoiler mode in the Big Ten, thanks to three losses in its last five games, by a total of 14 points. In Week 11 at Wisconsin, the Hawkeyes (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS) rallied from a 21-6 deficit with 16 fourth-quarter points, but fell short 24-22 as 7.5-point pups.
“We’re dead even to this one, too, but we’ll probably need Iowa by kickoff,” Bogdanovich said of a 4 p.m. ET meeting. “The masses will be on Minnesota, sharps on Iowa.”
No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners at No. 10 Baylor Bears – Open: -10; Move: -10.5
Oklahoma needs to keep pace with Alabama, Georgia and Oregon among squads with one loss hoping to find a way into the four-team CFP. The Sooners came perilously close to bowing out of consideration last week, blowing a 35-14 halftime lead against Iowa State and eking out a 42-41 home victory laying 14.5 points.
Baylor gets a big chance to prove its perfect record is no fluke, as a win in this 7:30 p.m. ET meeting would surely keep it in the CFP chatter. The Bears (9-0 SU, 5-4 ATS) went to Texas Christian as 1-point favorites and exited with a 29-23 triple-overtime victory in Week 11.
“We’ll probably need Baylor, but it won’t be a monster decision,” Bogdanovich said. “It’s pretty even right now.”
No. 21 Navy Midshipmen at No. 16 Notre Dame Fighting Irish – Open: -8.5; Move: -9.5; Move: -9; Move: -8; Move: -7.5; Move: -7; Move: -7.5; Move: -7; Move: -7.5; Move: -7
Notre Dame has no shot at a second straight spot in the final four, having already suffered two losses. After getting waxed at Michigan and barely beating Virginia Tech, the Fighting Irish (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS) thumped Wake Forest 38-7 as 7-point road favorites in Week 11.
Navy has just one loss this season, and that was on the road against a solid Memphis outfit. The Midshipmen (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS) had a bye in Week 11, after thumping Connecticut 56-10 as 26-point favorites in Week 10.
“I’m not sure who we’ll need in that one,” Bogdanovich said of a 2:30 p.m. ET start. “The sharps are definitely on Navy. We’re dead even to it, and I think it’ll stay that way.”
Other noteworthy matchups:
• No. 4 Alabama at Mississippi State, noon ET: The Crimson Tide are coming off a home loss to Louisiana State in a monster game last week. Alabama opened -20.5, dropped to -18, then rebounded to -19. “We’re definitely gonna need Mississippi State. This is gonna be a big game for us,” Bogdanovich said.
• Tulane at Temple, noon ET: The visiting Green Wave opened -3.5 and got bet up to -6 midweek before Owls action began showing up. “Really good action on both teams, two-way action,” Bogdanovich said. “We’ll probably need the ‘dog, but it won’t be for much.”
• Southern California at California, 11 p.m. ET: As the latest kickoff on Saturday’s slate, this is the get-even-or-get-even-deeper game. The Trojans opened -6.5, but the line dropped 2 points Friday on the news that Cal starting QB Chase Garbers is returning from a shoulder injury after missing four games. “The sharps are definitely on the ‘dog, and the public will probably be on USC. We might need Cal small.”
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.
