Positive feedback loops, negative trends

Pandemics and climate change share the property of being driven by positive feedback loops.

For pandemics, the more people who acquire a disease, the more people who are exposed to the disease, the more people who acquire the disease, and so on.

We can control that by changing behaviors to reduce exposures and by developing a vaccine to block acquisition. Delay in responding to a pandemic increases its impact, as the growth of its prevalence is exponential in nature.

For climate change, there are many such feedback loops. For example, the warmer it is, the more polar ice melts (or more methane is released from permafrost), the warmer it is, and so on.

But there will be no vaccine for climate change. Only significant, permanent changes in our social behavior will allow us to reduce and adapt to the impacts climate change will bring. Ending reliance on carbon-based energy, increasing energy efficiency, adopting local food supplies, changing packaging and generally reducing consumption are among the actions required.

As with COVID-19, we have delayed our response to climate change. This guarantees the impacts, and thus the changes required, will be great. There is no time for further delay.

Art Farley, Eugene