The Hotline mailbag is published each Friday. Send questions to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or hit me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline. (In each case, please acknowledge authorization to publish your name and question.)
Due to volume — and in some cases, the need for research — not all questions will be answered the week they are submitted. Thanks for your understanding.
Some questions have been edited for brevity.
What is the likelihood Texas could join the Pac-12 by 2025 if Oklahoma bolts the Big 12 for the SEC? — @CougarCentreSLC
At this point, it’s difficult to see the Big 12 splintering in a fashion that results in the Pac-12 expanding.
There is speculation about the reverse — about the Big 12 poaching the Pac-12 — but the market forces that drove realignment 10-12 years ago don’t exist today.
Other pressures (hello, NIL!) could lead to structural change in college football, but the number of cable homes within the conference footprint won’t be the chief driver.
I’m deeply skeptical that we’ll see Power Five realignment in the next 18-24 months, in advance of the next media contract negotiations.
That said, I’ve always believed Texas is better suited for the Big Ten or the ACC — the former because of the time zone overlap and potential for incalculable wealth (via media rights) the marriage would bring, the latter because of the political forces that would welcome alignment with a conference that spans the East Coast power centers.
But let’s say events unfold in a manner that brings Texas and the Pac-12 to the negotiating table.
The Longhorn Network itself wouldn’t be a deal-breaker; it could be folded up altogether or folded into a media rights package that includes the Pac-12 schools.
The larger issue is the business model for media rights:
With or without its own network, would Texas agree to share revenue equally within the conference? Would Longhorn pride and the Longhorn budget accept the same annual conference distribution check as Oregon State or Washington State or Arizona?
And if not, would the Pac-12 dissolve its equal-share model and revert to the pre-expansion approach, in which conference revenue is based on TV appearances or market share?
In our view, the answer to the former — Would Texas accept an equal share? — is an unqualified no, with a side order of hahahaha.
As for the latter option, there might be a sliver of a chance.
But I would be fairly surprised if we reach the point of formal, semi-formal or quasi-formal discussions.
Another option — and one the Hotline proposed two years ago — is a schedule alliance between the Big 12 and the Pac-12.
Not a Pac-12 question per se, but can Sark recruit SoCal kids to Austin given the current controversy over the Eyes of Texas? (Counterpoint: is this an opportunity for Pac-12 schools to pull kids out of Texas?) — @EngelKRichard
We recently addressed the threat Steve Sarkisian poses to the Pac-12 talent pipeline, but on a broad level — before this latest installment of the ‘Eyes of Texas’ controversy.
One way of monitoring impact is to track Maalik Murphy’s status. If the five-star quarterback from L.A. wavers in his commitment to Texas, that would be a significant development.
It also seems unlikely. Murphy and his family were undoubtedly aware of the song and the sentiment of Texas players prior to his pledge.
Our guess is the current controversy subsides, only to be replaced by iterations down the road — but none of them significant enough to prevent Sarkisian from strategically targeting, and ultimately luring, elite prospects from the West Coast.
If I was to bet on the next Pac-12 commissioner, I’d have to put my money on Gene Smith. However, as you mentioned, he is 65 … I love the idea of him bringing along Gloria Nevarez in a right-hand, next-in-line kind of role. Though she doesn’t have the gravitas the conference needs right now, I think this type of role would help get her there. Additionally, I think the Pac-12 presidents would love the idea of eventually handing the reigns off to a BIPOC female. What are your thoughts on all of this? — Christian
I agree that diversity will play a central role in the search, as it should. To what extent it frames the final decision, I can’t begin to speculate. The presidents first must decide what the conference needs right now, then identify the best candidates for that specific role.
We assessed Smith and Nevarez, along with four other potential options, at the end of our recent series on the search.
Nevarez clearly knows the Pac-12, and she has received positive reviews at the WCC.
Her hands-on work in the football space is a bit light, and some presidents might not view her as fresh blood given the eight years she spent working for Scott (2010-18).
Generally speaking, the idea of a commissioner-in-waiting makes some sense for the Pac-12 if the preferred candidate, for whatever reason, won’t commit to the long haul.
My guess, however, is the presidents would view that as a last resort.
1. Does USC need to beat UCLA Saturday AND win the conference tournament to get to a #4 seed? 2. What’s better for the conference – four teams seeded as high as possible or a fifth school sneaking in? 3. When are times/TV announced for the first month of the football season? — @MrWarren_Bell
Let’s take those issues in reverse order:
3. The TV times for the non-conference football games are usually announced in early June, but nobody should be surprised if that timeline gets pushed back a few weeks.
After all, the schedule itself came out six weeks later than it did in 2020.
2. The quantity vs. quality of NCAA seeds is a fascinating topic, one that’s ultimately unknowable without seeing the pairings in advance.
The goal for the Pac-12 is to play as many games as possible: Each game is worth one unit, and each unit is worth about $300,000, paid out annually over six years.
In your example, the answer would hinge on the seed lines lost by the four locks.
More specifically, how many teams would fall into the No. 8-9 game. Those are avoid-at-all-cost seed lines because of the second-round matchup against the No. 1.
If you proposed a scenario in which the Pac-12 received a fifth bid and each of the four locks dropped one line — but not into the No. 8-9 game — then I’d argue the conference would benefit.
(Please note: We recently published the all-time won/loss records for each seed line in first- and second-round games.)
1. I would argue the Trojans need to beat UCLA, win the conference tournament and get help elsewhere in order to climb to a No. 4 seed.
Everything about the seeding process is relative: USC is competing against a handful of other teams for the No. 4 line.
How they fare in regular-season finales and conference tournaments will impact the Trojans’ position whether they win the Pac-12 title or not.
There’s one more piece to the calculation: USC’s draw in Las Vegas. The Trojans need to face the highest possible seed in each round.
A semifinal pairing with Utah and a championship game matchup with ASU, for example, would have little impact on their resume.
Jon, have you ever examined the seeming focus on Arizona by ESPN? Does it just feel like it or are all the schools from the scandal getting this kind of treatment? Or is Arizona’s resistance causing this? Is ESPN trying to justify the disputed reporting? — @maxpower1616
I have not examined that and don’t want to comment on another company’s coverage. But the general topic of media attention on Arizona has surfaced periodically on Hotline channels, and I can offer a few thoughts:
— Yes, the ESPN report on Miller inflamed the scrutiny — no doubt about that.
— However, Arizona fans should extricate themselves from the Wildcat media weeds and examine the coverage other schools caught in the scandal have received within their home regions.
— Lastly, there is simply more evidence connecting Arizona, and Miller specifically, to the sting operation:
His exchange with Christian Dawkins played in the HBO documentary … the wiretaps of Book Richardson mentioning Miller … the wiretaps of Dawkins boasting about his relationship with Miller …
Other than Will Wade’s “strong-ass offer” comment, which itself has received plenty of media attention, we don’t have equivalent evidentiary connections to other coaches.
Why are the Ducks so under-seeded? An 8 seems ludicrous given their only losses aside from CU, SC and Mizzou were without multiple starters including the Pac-12 player of year front runner. — @travisrookeley
Oregon has just three Quad 1 victories overall and little of consequence on its non-conference resume, but my guess is the Ducks have gained a seed line or two in the past week, with the wins over Arizona and UCLA.
The extent to which the selection committee has seen them play, and fully grasps the roster issues, could impact the seed.
The more subjective the evaluation — as opposed to judgment based entirely on metrics — the better for the Ducks.
What infuriates you more, @oregonfootball winning the conference or @OregonMBB winning it? — @Bclif234
Which answer would make you happiest?
Have you applied for the commish gig? Thx — Jimmy, Schenectady
Not so far, but thanks for asking, Jimmy.
If approached, my candidacy would be based on the following platform:
Football schedulingFootball recruitingFootball officiatingFootball brandingFootball infrastructureFootball
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