Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants odds, picks and prediction
The San Francisco Giants (63-37) host the long-time rival Los Angeles Dodgers (61-41) Wednesday at Oracle Park for the second game of their three-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Dodgers vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Tied 7-7.
RHP Walker Buehler is L.A.'s projected starter. Buehler is 10-1 with a 2.31 ERA (128 2/3 IP, 33 ER), 0.91 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 20 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 9 K in L.A.'s 5-3 defeat to the Giants Thursday.
- Buehler is 2-0 this season against San Francisco with a 1.00 ERA (27 IP, 3 ER), 0.85 WHIP and 4.0 K/BB rate in four starts.
- vs. Giants on the current roster (120 PA): 2.52 FIP with a .183 batting average (BA), .244 wOBA, .238 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 28.3 K% and 86.5 mph exit velocity (EV).
RHP Anthony DeSclafani makes his 21st start for the Giants. DeSclafani is 10-4 with a 2.87 ERA (119 1/3 IP, 38 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: No-decision in San Francisco's 5-3 win over L.A. Thursday with a stat line of 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 7 K.
- DeSclafani is 0-2 this year against L.A. with an 8.84 ERA (18 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 25 H, 10 BB and 19 K in four starts.
- vs. Dodgers on the current roster (115 PA): 5.88 FIP with a .314 BA, .370 wOBA, .455 xSLG, 15.7 K% and 89.3 mph EV.
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Dodgers at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:10 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Dodgers -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Giants +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -1.5 (+120) | Giants +1.5 (-145)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Dodgers 5, Giants 2
Money line (ML)
GIMME the DODGERS (-145) FIRST 5 INNINGS for 1 unit because L.A. has its real ace on the mound in Buehler whose pitching peripherals both for the season and against San Francisco are better than DeSclafani's on the year and against the Dodgers.
For instance, Buehler has a better K%, BB%, expected wOBA, xSLG, chase rate and whiff rates than DeSclafani this season.
More importantly, Buehler has dominated the Giants this season and he's never lost in Oracle Park. Buehler is 5-0 for his career in San Francisco with a 2.67 ERA and a 4.4 K/BB rate.
However, I'm keeping my L.A. money line wager within the First 5 Innings because San Francisco's bullpen has been more reliable since the All-Star Game. The Giants' relievers rank fourth in WAR as a unit in the second half of the season while the Dodgers' bullpen is 22nd in WAR over that span.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS for various reasons including San Francisco's MLB-high 66.7% cover rate against divisional foes (28-14 ATS), the Giants' 7-3 record this season as a home underdog and L.A.'s 20-27 ATS record vs. NL West competition.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight "LEAN" to the UNDER 7.5 (-105) for a tiny wager if at all because I much prefer L.A.'s First 5 Innings money line.
But, both starters are in the midst of awesome seasons and I think San Francisco will get a good outing from DeSclafani given the high stakes nature of this first- vs. second-place divisional showdown.
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