Model projects COVID-19 cases in Vermont will increase 41% over next month
Hospitalizations, cases expected to rise during holiday season
Hospitalizations, cases expected to rise during holiday season
Hospitalizations, cases expected to rise during holiday season
The number of new COVID-19 infections in Vermont is expected to increase by 41% over the next month, according to modeling presented by state officials Tuesday.
The expected increase comes as Vermont nears the end of its most infectious month since the pandemic began. State health officials have reported more than 1,500 new cases of the virus in November, including a single-day record 148 cases.
Worsening case numbers have been spurred in large part by private gatherings, causing leaders to point concern at Thanksgiving and urge residents to reconsider meeting friends and family for the holiday.
"With the amount of virus in our communities right now, even your trusted friends and households are at much greater risk and may not know they have the virus," Gov. Phil Scott said Tuesday.
Scott's administration has taken precautions in an attempt to limit spread of the virus — prohibiting multi-household gatherings and placing additional restrictions on out-of-state travel. But the measures come with limited enforcement policies and state leaders are aware that not everyone will follow them.
National surveys indicate that 38% of Americans still plan to have a Thanksgiving gathering with 10 or more people. If Vermonters follow that trend — described as a "worst-case scenario" — state projections show it could result in more than 3,200 new COVID-19 cases in the state along with dozens of additional hospitalizations.
"These are certainly numbers that are quite stark and quite disturbing," said Mike Pieciak, commissioner of the Department of Financial Regulation and the state's point person on coronavirus data modeling.
The state has seen a bump in out-of-state visitors around each major holiday observed during the pandemic thus far, though far fewer than were reported in 2019.
Scott said he has "a lot of tools in the toolbox" to use should virus numbers surge following the holidays but hopes he won't have to.
Click here to view the latest COVID-19 data from Vermont.