Coronavirus NJ: 365 new cases at Jersey Shore; Curve 'beginning to flatten,' Murphy says

Gov. Phil Murphy said Monday that New Jersey is beginning to slow the rise of new coronavirus cases as the state's death toll from the pandemic passed 1,000, including 133 in Monmouth and Ocean counties.

More than two weeks after Murphy ordered his most aggressive actions to essentially lock down life in New Jersey in an attempt to diminish the spread of the virus, the governor said there are indications that those measures are working and the curve of new cases is "beginning to flatten."

The growth rate of new cases has fallen from about 24% daily at the end of March to about 12% in recent days. State models show that if residents continue to follow stringent social distancing measures, the state's hospitals will be able to handle the coming surge of COVID-19 patients, officials said.

“What we can see together is that while we are not anywhere close to being out of the woods as of yet, we are clearly on the right path to get there," Murphy said at the state's daily coronavirus briefing.

But Murphy stressed that if in-person human interactions are not limited, the state still faces a potentially dire worst-case scenario that would leave the health care system overwhelmed.

New Jersey continues to have the second-most COVID-19 cases of any state in the country, behind only neighboring New York. The peak of the pandemic is projected to arrive in the coming weeks.

Monmouth County

There were 178 new COVID-19 cases in Monmouth County reported to the New Jersey Department of Health in the past 24 hours. The county now has a total of 2,545 cases, according to data from the state department of health. 

The Monmouth County Department of Public Information and Tourism, which has been collecting case totals from the county's various health departments, later reported a total of 2,577 in the county.

Officials on Thursday reported four new deaths in the county connected to the coronavirus pandemic. The county's death toll is now 62, according to state health department data.

Health officials reiterated that not all those deaths happened within the past 24 hours and the numbers were culled from multiple sources.

Ocean County

There were 187 additional cases of COVID-19 in Ocean County reported to the state health department over the past day, according to state Health Commissioner Judith Persichilli. The county's case tally is now 2,374, according to state data.

The Ocean County Health Department later reported 2,395 cases countywide.

Officials also reported nine additional deaths in Ocean County, bringing the countywide death toll from the pandemic to 71, the sixth-most of New Jersey's 21 counties.

Statewide

Across New Jersey, there were 3,663 additional cases announced Monday, bringing the statewide total to 41,090. Officials announced 86 new deaths in the state, raising the death toll to 1,003.

About 6,390 in New Jersey hospitals have tested positive for COVID-19, a number that has more than doubled since Friday. Roughly 1,505 of those patients are in intensive care units, Persichilli said.

The health commissioner said there would be "significant activity" in hospitals over the next two weeks as the surge of coronavirus patient rises.

Projecting the peak

State officials released new models Monday showing what the height of the coronavirus pandemic is expected to look like in New Jersey.

Those projections show that without any changes to daily life in the state, 3 million residents, about one-third of the population, would have been infected with the virus at its height. Based on the restrictions already put in place, the projected worst-case scenario would see more than a half-million infections in New Jersey by May 11, the models show.

Officials believe the best-case scenario would leave about 86,000 people sick when the outbreak peaks on April 19. That projection would only become reality if residents stay at home as much as possible and limit interactions.

”The curve is flattening, but this is no time to spike any footballs or take our foot off the gas," Murphy said.

Health officials have been more concerned about cases that require patients to be hospitalized. State models now estimate a surge of between 9,000 and 36,000 COVID-19 patients in New Jersey hospitals at the height of the pandemic. That peak would arrive between April 10 and 28.

The state would be able to handle the low-end of that estimate by increasing hospital capacity through field hospitals, reopening closed long-term care facilities, hospitals and now-closed wings of existing hospitals and converting hotels to care for patients, officials said.

But Murphy said the worst-case scenario would overwhelm the health care system "like a tsunami," leaving the state without the ventilators needed to help critically ill patients breathe and leaving health care workers without the protective equipment they need to treat infected patients.

“This should be all the incentive we need to keep doing what we’re doing," Murphy said, summarizing the new projections.

Hospitals at the Jersey Shore haven't yet seen a major surge in coronavirus patients, but representatives have told the Asbury Park Press that they are bracing for an significant increase in the coming weeks.

The models change daily and are based on the ongoing outbreak in New Jersey as well as information from other countries that have seen large-scale outbreaks including Italy, Iran and China.

State officials did not release estimates on the number of deaths in New Jersey, but said the fatality rate is likely to be near 1.5% — that would mean a death toll of more than 7,500 at the worst-case scenario.

Federal officials have warned the country to be prepared for a surge in deaths in the next two weeks with U.S. Surgeon General Jerome Adams likening the moment to the 9/11 or Pearl Harbor attacks.

The highest state estimate would leave nearly 10,000 COVID-19 patients in intensive care units, the projections show. The state had about 20,000 hospital beds, including 2,000 critical care beds, available at the start of the pandemic, health officials have said.

Other updates

Murphy said the state would receive another 500 ventilators from the federal government to help coronavirus patients in the coming days.

Murphy said he had secured a commitment to treat some New Jersey patients aboard the U.S.N.S. Comfort, a Navy hospital ship docked in New York Harbor to help with the growing outbreak in New York City. The governor did not know how many patients from the state would be able to be treated there.

The state also released for the first time Monday data on the race of people who had died from COVID-19 complications. Officials did not have the race of about half of those who died. Among the half for which data was available, 33% were white, 12% black, 2% Asian and 7% "other," Persichilli, the state health commissioner, said.

Murphy showed up to the press conference wearing a cloth face mask following new recommendations from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Friday meant to stop asymptomatic people from spreading the virus.

His face covering had "EXIT 109" written across the front, a reference to the Garden State Parkway exit nearest to his Middletown home.

Andrew Goudsward: agoudsward@gannett.com; 732-897-4555; @agoudsward on Twitter.