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Week 10 NFL Power Rankings: Shake it up!

We were destined for one of these weeks.

Week 10 gives us a number of reasons to shake up the Touchdown Wire Power Rankings. Distressing trends in Tennessee and Seattle, a shocking loss at the end for the Buffalo Bills, and a stunner of an upset Sunday night in Foxborough have some of the teams in our top ten from Week 9 in a bit of a nosedive. Then there are the New Orleans Saints, who earned another win but face an uncertain future at the quarterback position with an injury to Drew Brees.

Oh, and the NFC East remains bad.

That means there is some movement this week.

32. New York Jets (0-9. Week 10 Bye. Last week: 32)

(Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports)

While the New York Jets hung with the New England Patriots back in Week 9 in front of a national audience, that statement lacks the power and punch of years past. The Patriots are not the powerhouse they once were, and as outlined previously here at Touchdown Wire, the Jets seem to be lining up for postseason positioning…in terms of the draft, not the playoffs.

As we do each week in the Power Rankings, we pose a critical question to each team on a bye week. For the Jets, it seems simple: Is the Sam Darnold Era over?

With the Jets chasing down an 0-16 record, it begs the question. Finishing with a completely blemished record would set them up with their choice of players at the top of the 2021 draft, among them quarterbacks Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields. But that would mean moving on from Darnold, who entered the league with a lot of buzz and promise but has largely fallen short of expectations.

From where I sit, the organization has failed to provide Darnold with the weapons and the protection necessary to make a full determination, but the Jets might not agree. Beyond that, the team is facing an upcoming decision on his fifth-year option. Given that they do not yet know if he is the answer, it might make more sense to simply set the stage for breaking from him now given the chance to draft a new quarterback, than it would to pick up that fifth-year option and just kick the can down the road.

There’s an old saying about quarterbacks: “If you don’t know if you have the guy, then you don’t have the guy.” Right now the Jets don’t know if Darnold is the guy. That might be the simple answer.

31. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8. Last week: 31)

(Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports)

For a while, it looked like the Jacksonville Jaguars were on pace to pull off the upset of the season, dealing the Green Bay Packers another stunning loss to a team that seemed like they were packing it in for the 2021 NFL draft. Wide receiver Keelan Cole Sr. gave the Jaguars an early 10-7 lead on a punt return touchdown, and early in the third quarter the Jaguars tied the game at 17 on this throw from rookie passer Jake Luton to Cole:

The Jaguars then took the lead 20-17 when they forced a curious interception from Aaron Rodgers and converted their ensuing drive into a field goal. But that would be their final lead of the game. Rodgers responded by leading the Packers on a seven-play, 75-yard touchdown drive that he capped off by hitting Davante Adams for the eventual game-winner.

With respect to Luton, the rookie passer bounced back in the second half after a rather shaky first two quarters, and finished the day having completed 18 of 35 passes for 169 yards and a touchdown, along with an interception. Not too bad for his first road start – in poor weather at Lambeau Field no less – but still, nothing that happened today should chance Jacksonville’s long term plans. It’s time to look at quarterback in the draft.

Again.

30. Dallas Cowboys (2-7. Week 10 Bye. Last week: 30)

(Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports)

It was closer than expected, given that the Dallas Cowboys were led by Garrett Gilbert in his first NFL start, but the Dallas Cowboys fell short of a huge upset of the Pittsburgh Steelers back in Week 9. Now they look ahead to the final half of their season, still technically in contention in the dreadful NFC East but in all likelihood they’ll be playing out the stretch.

The biggest question facing Dallas is this: When is the new Dak Prescott contract announced?

You would have to think this is the biggest no-brainer of all time, right? After the injury to their starting quarterback the Cowboys lost their next four games, and other than the loss to Pittsburgh they have really not been competitive in any of them. Their offense is largely a mess without their starting QB, and a defense which was bad to begin with now has absolutely no margin for error. 

Seeing this, the Jones boys – yes that is an Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade reference – have to stop at nothing to bring Prescott back for the 2021 season. 

Will they, though, is perhaps the bigger question. Having failed to get a long-term extension done in the past offseason, is there a guarantee a new contract will get done in the next few months? Former Cowboys great Roger Staubach predicted in the past few days that the organization will bring Prescott back, but others are not so sure. ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. floated the idea of the Cowboys drafting a quarterback with what looks to be an early first-round selection, before ultimately stating that the team should trade that pick for a potential king’s ransom and re-sign Prescott.

When you consider what teams have given up in the past to trade up for a quarterback, that would seem to make the most sense for Dallas. That’s what I would do. But again, I’m just a guy sitting at a desk drinking fruit punch, and my last name is not Jones.

29. Washington Football Team (2-7. Last week: 29)

(Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports)

This game began on a rather uplifting note for the Washington Football Team:

Veteran quarterback Alex Smith made his first start in over 700 days after suffering his brutal leg injury a few seasons ago. For a moment, it looked like his day was going to have a Hollywood ending. After Washington got down to a 24-3 deficit, Smith and the Football Team offense tied the game on this Antonio Gibson run with just over six minutes remaining:

From there, Washington had a chance to win the game, as Smith led the Football Team on a field goal drive in the closing seconds to tie the game at 27 with just seconds remaining. However, Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions pulled off a miracle – thanks in large part to a roughing the passer penalty on Chase Young – and they were able to win on a Matt Prater field goal on the final play.

A heartbreaking loss on what could have been a storybook day.

But given the Eagles’ loss to the Giants, Washington remains in contention. And if you look at the remaining schedule for each team, they might have the best path to a division title. While both the  Giants and the Eagles are entering tough stretches, Washington faces Cincinnati, Dallas and the 49ers over the next month. Meaning that despite the loss, Washington might – might – climb to the top of the NFC East before long.

28. Houston Texans (2-7. Last week: 25)

(AP Photo/Ron Schwane)

Each week when it comes to the Houston Texans, I feel it necessary to just highlight how well Deshaun Watson plays the quarterback position. Perhaps, at some level in the deep recesses of my mind, I’m speaking a better situation for Watson into existence.

Consider these two throws from Houston’s 10-7 loss to the Cleveland Browns. First, this insane throw from a quarterback who is crashing to the turf while in the clutches of a would-be sacker:

Then, this throw to cap off the drive for a touchdown to Pharaoh Brown:

Of course, none of this changes the fact that the Texans as a team are not good, their organization is in tatters as we saw last week when they fired Amy Palcic, and they have almost no draft capital in the upcoming draft. So…the situation seems dire, to say the least. Which is a shame, because we might be seeing an organization waste a tremendous talent at the quarterback position.

27. Atlanta Falcons. (3-6. Week 10 Bye. Last week: 26)

(AP Photo/John Bazemore)

That brings us to the Atlanta Falcons, who come off their bye week as perhaps one of the more impressive 3-6 teams you might have ever seen. That might sound like a bit of hyperbole, but when you consider where the Falcons were just a few weeks ago, there is a strong case to be made in their favor for such an honor.

Consider that midway through October Atlanta was sitting with an 0-5 record, having just fired their head coach and their general manager. They handed the keys to Raheem Morris on an interim basis. What have they done since then? Won three of their four games and, were it not for a sudden case of vapor lock from Todd Gurley, they would have won all four, putting them at 4-5 and on the cusp of playoff contention.

I’m supposed to be posing a question here, so this is it: Has Morris done enough to secure the head coaching job on a permanent basis?

From where I sit, the answer is a resounding yes. Falcons owner Arthur Blank stated when the move to Morris was made that if he finished the season unbeaten, then he would have made a strong case for the job. To this point, he largely has. Now he might have gotten the benefit of a soft stretch in their schedule, as all four games came against teams with losing records. Coming out of their bye things get much tougher. They’ll face New Orleans twice, the Raiders, the Buccaneers twice, the Chargers and the Chiefs. That is a much tougher run than the start of their schedule. But if Morris guides them to a competitive finish down the stretch, he should get this job on a permanent basis.

26. Los Angeles Chargers (2-7. Last week: 24)

(ALLEN EYESTONE / THE PALM BEACH POST)

This game was billed as a potential duel between two young quarterbacks who will compose one of the NFL’s next great QB rivalries in Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa. If the first installment is any indication, we are in for some good football games in the future.

The Miami Dolphins got the edge in this one by a final score of 29-21, but the Los Angeles Chargers have to remain ecstatic about what they are seeing from their rookie quarterback. Herbert, going against a stout Dolphins defense, completed 20 of 32 passes for 187 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He did throw an interception, which the Dolphins turned into seven points on their ensuing possession, but Herbert showed on Sunday yet more examples of his ability to handle and maneuver around a pocket even as pressure mounts around him.

The task going forward for Herbert is to turn some of these close losses into wins. ESPN’s Todd McShay pointed this out prior to the start of the early games, and he is absolutely correct. At some point the Chargers have to turn promise into production. They’ll get a chance to do just that next weekend, as the Chargers host the New York Jets, a team yet to win a game.

But if you wanted to know just how close the Chargers are, this tweet is for you:

Ouch.

25. Denver Broncos (3-6. Last week: 22)

(Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)

For the Denver Broncos, 2020 was likely all about putting young passer Drew Lock in a position to be successful. The team added Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler at wide receiver, along with Albert Okwuegbunam at tight end to pair with Noah Fant. If they were going to be sure Lock was the guy at the position, then this would be a fair season for the evaluation process.

This tweet might outline the current state of play in answering that question:

Sadly for the young quarterback, that tweet would be factually incorrect at the final whistle.

Lock struggled on Sunday against the Las Vegas Raiders in the loss, throwing three interceptions. Remember, this is not the 1985 Chicago Bears he was playing against. But those three picks, when combined with the overall picture of his 2020 season, do not paint him in a favorable light.

To be fair to Lock, there have been injuries around him – and to him – this season. Those injuries continued on Sunday:

Lock has not yet painted a complete picture of what he is, and what he can be, in the NFL as a quarterback. But time is getting short for him to make his case, and if this current trajectory continues then John Elway is going to face a big decision regarding the quarterback position in the coming offseason.

Again.

24. Carolina Panthers (3-7. Last week: 21)

(AP Photo/Gerry Broome)

Sometimes the scheduling gods, and real-world events, put a football team in an impossible position.

That was the fate that befell the Carolina Panthers this Sunday.

Not only did they have to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who were coming off a brutal loss to the New Orleans Saints, and not only did they have to face Tom Brady who was coming off perhaps his worst game as a professional. In addition to all that, the Panthers were facing a team that spend hours stuck on the tarmac thanks to mechanical trouble with their plane, causing the Buccaneers not to land in Carolina until almost midnight.

Think of every time you were stuck on the runway, and the mental state that put you in. How mad you were when you finally landed, and how you might have taken it out on a gate agent or a person working at the rental counter.

Now imagine that translating to the football field.

The Panthers got out to an early 14-7 lead, but it would not be enough on this day. Brady threw for three touchdowns, Teddy Bridgewater threw an interception and limped off the field with a right knee injury after a low hit on a sack, and the Panthers could not keep pace with a team that seemed vengeful after everything they endured over the past week. Making matters worse, the Panthers managed just 35 yards of offense in the second half, which according to Dave Newton of ESPN was their second-worst second-half output in league history.

Yet Panthers fans should take a step back and look at the big picture. This was a bad loss, but this is an improving football team that should be in position to add talent next year both in the draft and in free agency. Yes, there will be a quarterback decision, but I’ve already outlined where I stand on that choice…

23. Cincinnati Bengals (2-6-1. Last week: 20)

(Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)

Burrow has seen two different “measuring stick” games, first against the Baltimore Ravens a few weeks ago, and this week against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Bengals lost those games by a combined score of 63-13.

Now to Burrow’s credit, he was much improved from that loss to the Ravens a few weeks back. In that game, Burrow completed 19 of 30 passes for 183 yards, no touchdowns and an interception. This week Burrow completed 21 of 40 passes for 213 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions. So…progress?

The touchdown came on a fourth down play with Burrow connecting with fellow rookie Tee Higgins for the touchdown:

This play is a perfect example of what the Bengals have done so often this season conceptually. Burrow lines up in the shotgun in an empty formation, and takes the easy throw on the slant route to Higgins working against man coverage. The two inside trips receivers create traffic and a rub, creating space for Higgins working back to the inside.

Looking ahead, the Bengals have some winnable games on the schedule. They’ll get Washington and the New York Giants over the next two weeks, and face Dallas and Houston later in the year. They might not scratch out a winning record this season, but the Bengals look much improved from a year ago, and it is due in large part to their rookie QB.

22. Detroit Lions (4-5. Last week: 28)

(Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports)

For a moment, it looked like the Detroit Lions were going to blow another double-digit lead.

In their game against Washington, the Lions got out to an early lead thanks to this deep shot from quarterback Matthew Stafford to Marvin Hall:

On the Week 10 Matchup Podcast, Doug Farrar and I mused about the recent struggles from Stafford, including on the deep ball. I surmised that those issues might be related to a potential injury, as Stafford’s upper body mechanics did not seem as settled as they were in previous weeks.

I mentioned that I hoped I was dead wrong Looks like I might have been.

Another standout for the Lions in their early scoring outburst was rookie running back D’Andre Swift. The multi-faceted offensive weapon had 16 carries for 81 yards, along with five receptions for 68 yards and this touchdown that extended the Detroit lead:

However, as Washington climbed back into the game, it seemed like this would be the real takeaway from an impending loss:

Somehow, the Lions were able to pull out the win on a Matt Prater field goal on the final play, aided by a roughing the passer penalty committed by Chase Young to give the Lions life on their final drive.

Given the next three weeks (games against Carolina, Houston and Chicago) the Lions might have a winning record at the end of that stretch. They’ll need to rattle off some wins, given the fact they end the year with games against Green Bay, Tennessee, Tampa Bay and Minnesota.

21. New York Giants (3-7. Last week: 27)

(AP Photo/Seth Wenig)

Perhaps New York Giants fans knew it was going to be their day when this happened:

The last time the Giants squared off with the Philadelphia Eagles, quarterback Daniel Jones became an internet meme in the blink of an eye when he fell down in the open field on what should have been a long touchdown run. The Giants would go on to lose that game in the closing seconds, leaving fans and the Giants themselves to wonder what could have been.

That was not the case Sunday, as the Giants staked their own claim to the NFC East crown with a surprising win over the Eagles, who had a bye week to prepare for this contest. Jones’ early touchdown run helped give the Giants an early double-digit lead, but it was perhaps this throw later in the game that Jones and the Giants faithful will remember:

After the Giants defense stopped the Eagles on a fourth-down attempt, Jones hit a streaking Darius Slayton with a perfect bucket throw along the left sideline to give the Giants a fresh set of downs in Philadelphia territory. They would cap off the drive with the insurance field goal, pushing their lead to ten on an afternoon where they carried the day.

Looking ahead, however, one might be wise to be wary of the Giants given their upcoming schedule. Sure they face the Bengals this week, but then they face perhaps their toughest stretch of the season, with games against Seattle, Arizona, Cleveland and Baltimore, all teams in playoff contention. But given this division, who knows? Wins against Cincinnati and Dallas in Week 17 might be enough in a woeful NFC East.

And yes, Giants fans. I’m aware that this means the Eagles are ranked above them this week, but you can only move New York up so far given a 3-7 record. But fear not, you’ll see the Eagles before long…

20. Philadelphia Eagles (3-5-1. Last week: 16)

(Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports)

The Eagles had a bye week to prepare for this huge divisional clash with the New York Giants. A win on Sunday would have given them a commanding lead over the Giants and the Dallas Cowboys in the division, and put them on course for a huge clash with the Washington Football Team on the final week of the season to perhaps decide the NFC East.

Now, one has to wonder how they spent that bye week.

The Eagles were very slow to come out of the gate, getting down early to the Giants by a 14-3 score. That made for a… tense corner of the internet around halftime:

But things picked up early in the second half, thanks to this Boston Scott touchdown run:

That long touchdown jaunt brought the Eagles back within one score, setting the stage for a much more competitive second half. Unfortunately for Philadelphia, they came up short in their comeback attempt. They had a chance in the fourth quarter to knot the game at 24, but on a fourth down attempt Carson Wentz failed to connect with rookie wideout Jalen Reagor on a comeback route. That was a curious decision, throwing in the direction of James Bradberry, perhaps the Giants’ best coverage player.

Armed with a chance to put the game away, the Giants put on a drive of their own, one that ended with a field goal from Graham Gano to give the Giants a ten-point lead. A lead they would not give up in the final minutes.

So what do we know about the Eagles now? Perhaps their record speaks for itself. The Eagles fell to 3-5-1 with the loss, and now remain just percentage points ahead of both Washington and New York in the division. Wentz is not playing well, and that continued on Sunday, as he took a disastrous sack on Philadelphia’s final drive that forced them into a 4th and 16 play with just 2:10 remaining. And worse still? They face arguably their worst stretch of the season with games against Cleveland, Seattle, Green Bay, New Orleans and Arizona coming up, all teams with winning records and in playoff contention.

This could, honestly, spiral out of control in a hurry.

19. Chicago Bears (5-5. Last week: 17)

(Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports)

“Sense of urgency” was the phrase floating around Halas Hall over the past few days. After the Chicago Bears started the year with a 5-1 record, the Bears lost their next three games and were heading in the wrong direction. Having already changed quarterbacks, Matt Nagy was almost out of cards left to play. So he played the one he had remaining, handing play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Bill Lazor.

It did not seem to work in the first half, as the Bears managed just a pair of field goals in the first two quarters. Darker clouds perhaps loomed given their history this season. As the second-half kickoff was sent deep by the Minnesota Vikings, ESPN play-by-play announcer Steve Levy had just finished pointing out a brutal statistic from the Chicago Bears this season. To that point Chicago had been outscored 56-7 in third quarters this season.

105 yards later, kick returner and offensive weapon Cordarelle Patterson was in the end zone with a kick return touchdown, and that number immediately changed to 56-14:

Unfortunately, that was all the offense the Bears managed in the third quarter, as they gained a total of -2 yards in the third frame. That left Chicago trailing 19-13 on their opening drive of the fourth quarter, with Patterson’s return their only touchdown of the game to that point.

But the Chicago defense gave them another chance, forcing a Minnesota punt with just over five minutes remaining. Anthony Miller uncorked a solid return, giving the Bears great field position in Vikings’ territory and a chance to win.

Unfortunately, Foles just missed Miller on a deep post route on a throw that could have given Chicago the lead. As Louis Riddick said in the moment after, “That replay right there just [sums up] the Bears offense this season.”

Then, armed with one last chance, Foles was slammed to the turf on a late passing attempt, and remained down on the field. He would need the cart to assist him off the field.

Now, what cards are left to play? Mitchell Trubisky was inactive on Monday night as he is dealing with a shoulder injury. Do the Bears go back to him as this offense continues to hold the team back? Is Tyler Bray going to be the savior? His last-game effort gave nothing to indicate that would be the case. Does Nagy take back the play-calling duties, or is something bigger needed? The Bears can still make noise in the division, as they have two games left against Green Bay and one more against the Vikings, but time is running out and they seem to lack answers.

18. San Francisco 49ers (4-6. Last week: 18)

(Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports)

As we do from time to time, we’ll play a little “good news/bad news” with the San Francisco 49ers.

The visiting Niners opened the game with a 13-play, 75-yard drive that they capped off with a touchdown throw from Nick Mullens to rookie wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk:

This is vintage Kyle Shanahan. Pre-snap motion to get the defense thinking and to give the quarterback a man/zone coverage indicator. Mullens sees that the defense is in man coverage (given the trailing defender) so he knows where to go with the football right after the snap. But first, a play-fake! Because you can never have enough play-action if you are Shanahan

Some more good news comes in the form of this catch from tight end Jordan Reed, which was a contender for catch of the year for at least an hour or two, until DeAndre Hopkins outjumped the entire Bills defense:.

All of this added up to an early ten-point lead for the 49ers.

Now the bad news. After San Francisco got out to that 10-0 lead, the Saints scored the next 27 points, and the game was effectively over.

Mullens, making another start in place of the injured Jimmy Garoppolo, was largely ineffective after that initial drive, which came on the scripted set of plays. On that opening drive Mullens completed six of his seven attempts for 47 yards and a touchdown.

After that? Mullens went 16 of 31 for 200 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions.

Not great, Bob.

As outlined in this piece from Sunday night, it is time to think about the future of the quarterback position in San Francisco. 

17. New England Patriots (4-5. Last week 23)

(Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports)

Well, not too many people saw this one coming.

Perhaps a few did…

I will admit, picking the New England Patriots to win Sunday night was a bit of the homer, Patriots fan in me creeping out. But circumstances came together for New England to pull off the upset against the Baltimore Ravens. Weather can be the great equalizer in the sport, and it was on Sunday night. With conditions raw and brutal in Foxborough, particularly in the second half, the Patriots were able to get out to a 23-10 lead and ice it away down the stretch.

Don’t look now, but the New England offense might be figuring things out. Cam Newton has not thrown an interception the past few weeks, they seem to have discovered their next piece in the backfield with second-year running back Damien Harris, and the Jakobi Meyers is becoming a go-to target for Newton in the passing game.

Is it enough for the Patriots to make some noise down the stretch? Perhaps, perhaps not. But for one week at least, New England fans are believing again.

16. Minnesota Vikings (4-5. Last week: 19)

(Quinn Harris-USA TODAY Sports)

He finally got one.

Coming into Monday Night Football, Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins had yet to win such a contest, as he entered the meeting with the Chicago Bears with an all-time record of 0-9 on MNF.

But he finally got a win, and it was a big one.

After their tough 1-5 start, the Vikings have won three-straight games, pulling them out of the NFC North basement and back into contention for a playoff spot. The Minnesota offense struggled to get Dalvin Cook going, but Cousins connected early with Adam Thielen to give the Vikings an early lead:

In the second half, the two would connect again on the eventual game-winner to break a 13-13 tie:

From there, it was the Minnesota defense that locked down the win. Chicago had a few different chances to pull out a win late, but each time the Vikings defense stepped up to the challenge to deny Nick Foles and company.

Now look at their next three games. The Vikings play Dallas, Carolina and Jacksonville over the next three weeks. They could be 7-5 before they meet up with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 13th. Talk about a turnaround.

15. Cleveland Browns (6-3. Last week: 15)

cleveland-6-3-13-other-browns-teams

(Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports)

When an NFL game is delayed due to poor weather conditions, you can be pretty sure that the eventual contest is not going to be one for the ages. That was certainly the case on Sunday, when the tilt between the Cleveland Browns and the Houston Texas was delayed due to lightning and storms in the Cleveland area.

The game finally kicked off after a nearly 40-minute delay, and the final score of 10-7 in favor of the Browns is indicative of the product on the field.

A few weeks back I wrote that defensive end Myles Garrett deserved consideration for the league MVP award. Nothing I saw today dissuades me from that position. If anything, this game might be the contest that Garrett points to for in an eventual MVP campaign. Garrett was a factor early, notching his tenth sack of the season on this takedown of Deshaun Watson

In the upcoming draft when evaluators and scouts talk about hand speed and quickness in terms of edge rushers, think of this play. Textbook technique from the edge defender.

Then Garrett was a factor later, on this fourth-down stop of Watson at the goal line:

Offensively, Nick Chubb returned to the lineup for Cleveland after an absence due to injury and was a big part of their gameplan, perhaps due to the weather conditions. The talented running back notched 126 yards and a touchdown in his return – on 19 carries – and along with Kareem Hunt’s 104 yards on an additional 19 carries, Cleveland put together quite the tandem in the running game. Quarterback Baker Mayfield completed 12 of 20 passes for 132 yards, but this was a game about their defense, and their run game.

Looking ahead, the Browns have games against Philadelphia and Jacksonville the next two weeks, and face a two-game stretch against the Giants and Jets that should be favorable. That might help balance out their other three remaining games: Baltimore, Tennessee and Pittsburgh. But with this win, the Browns are one step closer to a return to the postseason.

14. Tennessee Titans (6-3. Last week: 6)

Now we get our first tumble.

The trend is not the friend for the Tennessee Titans. After a great start to the season, a stretch run to the playoffs from Tennessee seems to be slipping away like a poor punt off the foot of Trevor Daniel…

In the wake of a 5-0 start that saw many consider the Titans one of the true threats in the AFC, Tennessee has lost three of their last four games to slip to 6-3, now a game behind the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC South. On Thursday night the Titans had a chance to put a little distance between themselves and their rivals to the north, but miscues on offense and some special teams letdowns saw the Titans on the wrong end of a 34-17 loss. A.J. Brown missed on a chance for a huge touchdown that would have given the Titans a 14-0 lead early, and the teams battled to halftime with the Titans holding a 17-13 lead.

Then the special teams failures turned the game.

Daniel shanked a punt in the third quarter, and the Colts took advantage of great field position to put a touchdown on the board, putting them in front 20-17. Then Tennessee was forced to punt on their next possession, and Daniel’s attempt was blocked and returned for a touchdown, putting Indianapolis in front 27-17.

More concerning for Tennessee might be this: Over the next few weeks, the schedule is rather unfavorable. They’ll see the Baltimore Ravens next Sunday, and then the Colts the following week. December opens with a game against the Cleveland Browns, and they also have a tilt with the Green Bay Packers on deck for the Sunday after Christmas. A season that began with promise might slowly be spiraling away, unless they can right the ship in a hurry.

13. Seattle Seahawks (6-3. Last week: 5)

(Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports)

We might be seeing a pair of trends develop in the Pacific Northwest, one on a macro level, and another on a more micro level.

The Seattle defense struggles in a game, which forces Russell Wilson to be perfect on his side of the ball.

While that was possible earlier in the season, it has become more of a struggle, and as a result, the Seahawks are stumbling a bit. They have lost three of their past four games, and now face a three-way royal rumble for the division. Similar to the Tennessee Titans, the trend is not their friend.

That is the macro trend.

The micro? Wilson throwing interceptions near the goal line. Of course New England Patriots fans might dispute that this is a recent trend, but consider those three losses from Seattle. There was the Budda Baker… err….the D.K. Metcalf interception. Then Wilson was intercepted in the end zone last week by the Buffalo Bills.

Then this from Sunday:

Wilson does a great job of extending this play and keeping his eyes downfield, but throwing late across your body is one of those cardinal sins of quarterbacking. He commits the sin, and the Rams make him pay. Darious Williams notches the first of what would be his two interceptions on the afternoon.

Now the Seahawks are in a fight for the division, and they’ll need a short memory, because the Cardinals come to town Thursday night.

12. Las Vegas Raiders (6-3. Last week: 12)

(Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)

Over the past few weeks on the Touchdown Wire Matchup Podcast, Doug Farrar and I have extolled the virtues provided by the Las Vegas Raiders’ willingness to get more vertical in the passing game. One of the main benefits? What defenses have to do in response. If a defensive coordinator is worried about your vertical passing game, he is going to play more “middle-of-the-field open” looks against you, keeping both safeties deep to provide dedicated help downfield.

What does that do? It lightens the box. As Doug and I asserted, that paves the way for the running game.

The running game was a big part of the Raiders’ victory over the Denver Broncos on Sunday. Running back Josh Jacobs, who had just one 100+ yard rushing game to his credit this season coming into Week 10, notched his second of the year in the win. He added two touchdown runs in addition to the yardage he churned out on the ground.

The Raiders defense, however, provided a solid compliment to their counterparts in this contest. They intercepted Denver quarterback Drew Lock three times, including one interception that took place at the goal line right before halftime. That preserved a four-point lead going into the break for Las Vegas, and set the stage for the Raiders’ scoring outburst in the second half.

The win moved the Raiders to 6-3 on the season, improving their playoff positioning and keeping them in striking distance of the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West. Remember, the Raiders do have a game in hand there given their earlier victory over Kansas City. As luck would have it, that rematch is set for next Sunday.

After that, the Raiders have just two more games against teams with winning records: The Colts prior to Christmas and the Dolphins just after. Things are setting up nicely for Jon Gruden’s team as it enters the final stretch.

11. Arizona Cardinals (6-3. Last week: 14)

(AP Photo/Rick Scuteri)

For the second-straight week, it looked like two things were going to happen to the Arizona Cardinals. First, they would be involved in everyone’s “game of the week.”

Second, they would again be on the losing end.

Last week they suffered a late loss at the hands of Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins. This Sunday it seemed like another AFC East team was going to make a trip to the desert and knock off the Cardinals, this time the Buffalo Bills. When Josh Allen hit Stefon Diggs with a touchdown strike along the left side of the end zone with under a minute remaining, it seemed like the Cardinals were doomed to lose.

But then Kyler Murray got Arizona within striking range of the end zone, setting the stage for this:

This is an incredible play from DeAndre Hopkins, who somehow manages to outleap three different Bills defenders and get his hands on the football, securing the game-winning touchdown in the closing seconds.

The win improved Arizona to 6-3 on the season, and thanks to the Los Angeles Rams’ victory over the Seattle Seahawks, all three teams check in with that identical 6-3 record on the year. As the scheduling gods would have it, the Cardinals travel to Seattle for Thursday Night Football this week, so we’ll have a good idea of how that division looks before the weekend hits. But those three teams seem to be moving in different trajectories, and for the Cardinals and the Rams, they’re trending in the right direction.

10. Miami Dolphins (6-3. Last week: 13)

(ALLEN EYESTONE / THE PALM BEACH POST)

The Miami Dolphins are one of the hottest teams in football.

With their victory Sunday over the Los Angeles Chargers the Dolphins secured their fifth straight victory, and the third of the Tua Tagovailoa Era. This game was billed as the first meeting of what could be one of football’s next great quarterback rivalries, between Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert. On this day it was the lefty who emerged on top.

Tagovailoa completed 15 of 25 passes for 169 yards and a pair of touchdowns. His first came on this throw to Jakeem Grant, as he finds his target on a bunch concept down in the low red zone:

This read and throw is a great example of what Tagovailoa offers as a passer, which is a combination of a quick release and experience in the quick passing game. Tagoovailoa reads this concept perfectly and then throws Grant to safety, away from the leverage of the nearest defender.

His second touchdown came on a play-action design down near the goal line, with a bit of a throwback element:

Not to be outdone, the defense chipped in with an interception of Herbert, which gifted the Dolphins great field position. The offense capitalized with that above touchdown to Durham Smythe. Then there were the special teams units. The Dolphins blocked a punt at the end of the Chargers’ opening possession, recovering at the 1-yard line. They would score to take an early 7-0 lead.

So now the Dolphins are 6-3, with games against the Broncos, Jets and Bengals over the next three weeks. It is entirely possible, if not probable, that Miami is sitting at 9-3 when they make a trip to Kansas City to play the Chiefs in mid-December. Not sure anyone outside of South Beach saw that coming.

9. Baltimore Ravens (6-3. Last week: 7)

David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Unlike two other teams that tumbled out of the top ten – looking at you Seattle and Tennessee – the Baltimore Ravens manage to avoid too steep a drop despite a surprising loss to the New England Patriots?

Why? Weather. On an even playing field Baltimore probably wins that game going away, but on this Sunday night in Foxborough this loss was due more to the conditions and the cut on the snapping hand of center Matt Skura than anything else.

As an aside, and speaking of Skura:

This is horrible to see, and if you find yourself wanting to attack the family member of a player when they perform poorly, take a step back and rethink some things.

The Ravens also had some injuries up front, with both Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams either inactive or injured during the game. That gave the Patriots a chance in sloppy conditions to play to their strength on offense, which is running the football.

One note of concern for the Ravens is how they continue to struggle if they are forced into a negative game script situation. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are now 1-7 when they trail at halftime. Something to watch for as the season unfolds. Now the Ravens need to turn things around quickly during a critical two-game stretch against Tennessee and Pittsburgh. That Thanksgiving Night affair against the Steelers might determine if the Ravens have a shot at catching their rivals in the AFC North.

8. Los Angeles Rams (6-3. Last week: 11)

(Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports)

Last week a noted football scribe called the Los Angeles Rams “pretenders.” In doing so, this writer wrote, and I quote:

Let’s start on the defensive side of the football. Everyone knows about Aaron Donald and his world-destroying ways. We also know that the Rams are redefining modern defense, in large part with how they are using Jalen Ramsey on the inside more than as a boundary cornerback. With the pieces on that side of the football, the Rams are a tough team to play, no doubt.

But the concerns focus on the offensive side of the football. What we saw two weeks ago in Miami is bringing into focus fears that were first seen back in 2018. Fears that were generated when defenses started to figure out how to handle Sean McVay’s offensive designs. Back in that season teams like the Detroit Lions, Chicago Bears, Philadelphia Eagles and eventually the New England Patriots ignored the pre-snap eye candy, played Quarters coverage, and forced Jared Goff to work through reads.

Last week in Miami Brian Flores – who was a part of that trend in 2018 during his time with the Patriots – added to that some Cover 0 blitz packages that forced Goff into panic mode. The result? Two interceptions and two fumbles.

This is a copycat league, and other teams will follow. As a result, the Rams are going to falter.

Have I mentioned before that I’m a bit of an idiot?

To my credit, the Rams defense was indeed a big part of the Rams’ win over the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday. That defense intercepted Russell Wilson twice, Ramsey and the rest of the secondary held D.K. Metcalf to just two receptions and 28 yards, and the Seahawks offense struggled generally.

But the Rams’ offense was good too. Now, part of this might have been due to the Seattle defense and their struggles, but this was a good day from Goff and McVay. Goff completed 27 of 37 passes for 302 yards, no touchdowns and perhaps most importantly no interceptions. Malcolm Brown chipped in with a pair of rushing touchdowns, and the Rams came away with a win to pull themselves into a three-way tie at 6-3 atop the division.

Again, have I mentioned that I can be an idiot at times?

7. Indianapolis Colts (6-3. Last week: 10)

Defense and special teams have been the backbone for a few different championship runs in NFL history. Obviously the 1985 Chicago Bears come to mind. More recently we have seen teams like the early Brady/Belichick Patriots and even the Seattle Seahawks – and the Legion of Boom – ride the defensive side of the football to the promised land.

Could the Indianapolis Colts be next?

Coming into Week 10 the Colts sported one of the best defenses in the league, ranking third in Football Outsiders’ Defensive Efficiency with a DVOA of -20.1%. Those numbers might improve a bit more after Thursday night. The Colts topped the Tennessee Titans 34-17 in a critical AFC South battle, and were effective at slowing down the Titans offense. They held Ryan Tannehill to just 147 passing yards, and kept running back Derrick Henry out of the end zone.

Then there are the contributions from special teams that we saw on Thursday. Sure, a poor punt gifted the Colts excellent field position late in the third quarter, but the Colts also notched a touchdown on a blocked punt later in the game, giving them a ten-point lead they would not relinquish.

But if the Colts are going to remain atop the AFC South, they’ll need to navigate a difficult schedule down the stretch. Sure they get the Houston Texans twice and the Jacksonville Jaguars to close out the season, but they also have to face the Steelers, the Raiders, the Packers and the Titans, all teams in playoff position.

With this defense, they might be able to carve out wins in those games as well.

Also, the victory did accomplish another goal: Silencing the “bench Philip Rivers” discussion for another week…

6. Buffalo Bills (7-3. Last week: 3)

(Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports)

Yes they lost in heart-breaking fashion to the Arizona Cardinals, but it’s hard to drop the Buffalo Bills too much after what they have done the past two weeks.

First they knocked off the Seattle Seahawks in a statement win in Week 9. Then on Sunday they fought back on the road after coughing up a lead, and seemed to have pulled out an impressive victory in the desert on this throw from Josh Allen to Stefon Diggs:

During his draft process, many thought that Allen’s arm talent was overblown, myself included. But the young quarterback has shown that the velocity he can generate on a given throw does matter at the next level, and sometimes it matters a lot. It sure did on this throw towards the boundary, which Allen delivers like a cannon shot.

Granted, they gave up a game-winning touchdown from Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins in the closing seconds, but that should not overshadow what the Bills have done to this point. Now they get a bye week to collect themselves before their final six games, including what could be a Week 17 game against the Miami Dolphins with the division on the line…

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3. Last week: 9)

(Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports)

As a long time New England Patriots fan, there is a part of me that has been amused seeing Tampa Bay Buccaneers fans, along with those who cover the team, put in the position of defending Tom Brady over the past two weeks. As a battle-scarred veteran of those battles, it was almost pleasant to sit back and see others have to fight those fights on social media.

Supporters of the Buccaneers and Brady had lots of explaining to do after last week, one of the worst games of Brady’s illustrious career. Thankfully for them, he responded in a big way in Tampa Bay’s 46-23 drubbing of the Carolina Panthers. And his response began early, on their opening drive. First there was this perfect wheel route to Mike Evans:

That drive was capped off with this rocket shot to tight end Cameron Brate for Tampa Bay’s first touchdown of the game, coming on this out pattern in the red zone:

Brady finished the day 28 of 39 for 341 yards and three touchdowns, but he was not alone in the offensive effort. Running back Ronald Jones II, who had an early fumble that had many wondering if he would end up on the bench, finished the day instead with 23 carries for 192 yards and a touchdown, the scoring play coming on this 98-yard jaunt:

The win put the Buccaneers back in the win column in the wake of a disastrous game last week against the New Orleans Saints. Having lost both games this year to their rivals from the Big Easy, the Buccaneers need to string together as many wins as they can to keep pace. This one – along with Brady’s performance – probably eased some fears in Tampa Bay.

4. New Orleans Saints (7-2. Last week: 8)

(Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports)

There’s really only one major storyline to come out of the New Orleans Saints’ 27-13 win over the San Francisco 49ers.

The health and status of quarterback Drew Brees.

Brees was sidelined for the second half in the win after suffering an injury to his ribs. After the game both coach and quarterback addressed the situation. According to Brees himself, “I was not going to be able to be effective. It had nothing to do with pain. It was simply just what my body was going to be able to do or not be able to do.”

Sean Payton also addressed the injury after the game:

He took a heavy shot in the first half. As he came out in the second half, he felt it was really impacting him. So, specifically, he’ll get an MRI and X-Rays. His back felt sore. As he tried to throw, he just came up to me and said, ‘Hey, I don’t feel like I’m capable of playing.’ And so, quickly, we made the switch and, you know, that happens sometimes.

He felt strong enough about letting me know and I know when he does that, which is probably gonna be the first time in 15 years, that it was significant enough where he felt like he couldn’t function in the second half.

Brees exited the game when the Saints had a 17-10 lead at the half. Jameis Winston came on in relief and completed 6 of 10 passes for 63 yards. With the news Monday that Brees is dealing with multiple rib fractures and a collapsed lung, the veteran passer might be out for an extended period:

It might be the Winston show after all in New Orleans.

3. Green Bay Packers (7-2. Last week: 4)

Last week the Pittsburgh Steelers needed all 60 minutes to stave off an upset attempt by the Dallas Cowboys. In the wake of that win, I mentioned that we try not to ding teams too much for “ugly wins” in the Touchdown Wire Power Rankings.

That school of thought applies now for the second-straight week.

The Green Bay Packers held off a game Jacksonville Jaguars squad in the elements at Lambeau Field, thanks to a late touchdown pass from Aaron Rodgers to Davante Adams to secure a 24-20.

The Packers got on the board early thanks to a throw of the year candidate from Rodgers:

This is one of the best throws you will see on a given Sunday. Rodgers has pressure in his face and cannot step into the pass, but manages to get this on a rope to Marquez Valdes-Scantling who is running outside the opposite numbers. The stuff of legends.

But the biggest play of the game from Rodgers came much later, with the Packers trailing. That’s when he connected with Adams for the game-winner on this short touchdown:

For a while it looked like the Packers were going to stumble to 6-3, leaving the door open for the Minnesota Vikings to somehow mess around and win the division. But now, the Packers have a bit of breathing room and can focus on the Indianapolis Colts rather than trying to fight off a feeling of organizational panic and dread.

2. Kansas City Chiefs (8-1. Week 10 Bye. Last week: 2)

(Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports)

31 other teams do not have Patrick Mahomes. The Kansas City Chiefs do. So that might just be enough for them down the stretch.

Or…is it?

An interesting discussion took hold of football twitter this past week, with the announcement of Pro Football Focus’ Midseason NFL All-Pro team. Absent from that list? Mahomes. Despite having 24 touchdown passes and just one interception at the break, the minds at PFF left him off and put Aaron Rodgers on the team, with Russell Wilson named to the second team.

Here’s what they said:

We could have gone in a number of different directions at quarterback, but in the end, we decided to jump aboard the Aaron Rodgers revenge tour. Rodgers is the highest-graded quarterback in the NFL through nine weeks despite an ugly performance against Tampa Bay in Week 5.

He has 23 big-time throws, second only to Russell Wilson, and has offset those with just four turnover-worthy plays all season. You could make a strong case for Wilson, Patrick Mahomes or even Tom Brady — despite his most recent disaster — but Rodgers’ numbers are too good to ignore.

Now obviously this generated a bit of buzz, and in defense of the selection Sam Monson, one of the head analysts at PFF, outlined the case against Mahomes:

Monson went on to outline that last season, Mahomes had only two dropped interceptions.

Now, I do not think that this would cause teams to pass on acquiring Mahomes if given the opportunity, but there is some truth to the idea that Mahomes has not played flawless football this season. There have been mistakes, and “interceptable passes” to use an expression. But Mahomes and this offense remain so dangerous, given the variety of ways they can stress a defense, that from where I sit, he still is enough to keep the Chiefs among the most dangerous teams in football.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-0. Last week: 1)

(Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)

Nine game, nine wins.

Hard to argue with that, and it’s hard to argue with what the Pittsburgh Steelers have done so far this season. For the second-straight week they took care of business, this week it was the Cincinnati Bengals and rookie quarterback Joe Burrow. Ben Roethlisberger was solid in the win, throwing out of a mix of 3×1 and empty formation and completing 27 of 46 passes for 333 yards and four touchdowns. If you were worried about his arm and any lingering effects from last year’s nerve injury, his performance in the elements Sunday might have eased those fears.

The next two weeks are critical for the Steelers. They’ll need to avoid the “trap game” this weekend when they travel to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars, because looming on Thanksgiving Night is a huge showdown with the Baltimore Ravens. The Steelers have a chance to put a stamp on the division with a win over their rivals, but they’ll need to take care of business against an overmatched opponent this weekend.

Given what they have done to date – and the past two weeks – they should take care of business yet again.

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