Northern Michigan counties are continuing to see increased coronavirus risk, based on a four-colored metric developed by the Harvard Global Health Initiative that looks at new cases per day per 100,000 residents over a one-week period.
On Tuesday, Oct. 6, Mackinac County joined six other Upper Peninsula counties in the red risk zone, meaning they’re reporting more than 25 new cases per day per capita. The county just north of the bridge is averaging 30 new cases per capita per day.
The Harvard Institute metric uses a seven-day average of new cases per 100,000 residents to assess coronavirus risk levels. The newest assessment is based on data for Sept. 30 through Oct. 6.
Keweenaw, Houghton, Iron, Dickinson, Menominee, and Delta counties remained at the red risk level, with only Iron seeing a recent decline in cases.
Related: UP moves back a phase as Gov. Whitmer regresses a region for the first time
South of the Mackinac Bridge, three of the state’s four green counties -- the lowest risk level -- climbed into the yellow Tuesday. Cheboygan, Presque Isle, and Leelanau counties are each now averaging slightly more than one new case per capita per day.
The Lower Peninsula’s only recent red county -- Calhoun -- dropped down to orange with about 24 new cases per day. Montcalm County also dropped from orange to yellow and is now averaging about 8 new cases per day.
As of Tuesday, the state has seven red counties, 24 orange counties, 51 yellow counties and one green county.
The map below is shaded by the average number of new cases per day per 100,000 residents. The arrows indicate whether the total number of cases between Sept. 30 and Oct. 6 has gone up or down compared to the previous seven days (Sept. 23-29).
Readers can put their cursor over a county to see the underlying data. If you can’t see the map, click here.
Latest on coronavirus testing
Twelve Michigan counties reported daily positive test rates above 5% over the last seven days.
Menominee County (5.1%) was the latest to join the highest tier, becoming the sixth county in the U.P. to surpass 5% positivity. The others are Delta (11.4%), Houghton (9.7%), Iron (9.6%), Dickinson (7.5%), and Mackinac (6.1%).
In the Lower Peninsula, the counties with the highest positive test rate are Iosco (6.1%), Otsego (5.4%), Isabella (5.3%), Newaygo (5.2%), Calhoun (5.2%) and Macomb (5.2%).
Note: The number of positive tests does not match confirmed cases because a single patient may be tested multiple times.
As a state, Michigan is averaging a daily positive test rate of 3.4% over the last week. The World Health Organization says schools are safe to reopen if fewer than 5% of coronavirus tests over the past two weeks are positive, however state health officials have said they want to see the rate below 3%.
The map below shows the seven-day average testing rate by county. Once again, readers can put their cursor over a county to see the underlying data. If you can’t see the map, click here.
More localized maps
Below are two maps created by the EpiBayes research group at University of Michigan’s Department of Epidemiology, which has access to sub-county data collected by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services.
The interactive maps break down the state into 10 kilometer hexagons to provide more a more localized look at where coronavirus cases are occurring. You can click here to get to the research project website.
The first map looks at confirmed and probable coronavirus cases in the past week. You can click on a hexagon to see the underlying data.
You can use the triangle button at the upper right of the map to toggle to the second map, which shows total confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths since the start of the pandemic.
Latest daily report
On Tuesday, the health department reported 903 new coronavirus cases and 22 new deaths.
The state’s seven-day average is now 885 cases per day, compared to an average of 818 a week ago. The daily average is the highest it’s been in Michigan since April 29.
The map below shows total confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths since the start of the pandemic. You can put your cursor over a county to see the underlying numbers.
For more statewide data, visit MLive’s coronavirus data page, here. To find a testing site near you, check out the state’s online test finder, here, send an email to COVID19@michigan.gov, or call 888-535-6136 between 8 a.m. and 5 p.m. on weekdays.
Read more on MLive:
West Michigan school district begins in-house coronavirus testing
Michigan lawmakers to take up coronavirus bills this week after court invalidates Whitmer orders
Michigan health department issues order requiring masks, limiting gathering sizes statewide