Arizona reports 692 new COVID-19 cases, no deaths as metrics hold relatively steady

Arizona reported 692 new COVID-19 cases and no new known deaths on Monday as the state's percent positivity for last week rose from 5% to 6%, the highest in six weeks.

Arizona's seven-day case rate per 100,000 people ranked 48th on Sunday among all states and territories after ranking first and second for much of January, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's COVID Data Tracker.

The states with a lower case rate over the past seven days were Alabama, Oklahoma, California, Arkansas and Hawaii. Arizona ranked 51st among 60 states and territories on March 28, but its rank has fluctuated.

The state's seven-day average for new reported COVID-19 cases was 602 on Monday. The average had reached as high as 9,800 in January, according to state data.

Arizona's seven-day death rate per 100,000 people ranked 37th in the nation as of Sunday, per the CDC.

Percent positivity, which refers to the percent of COVID-19 diagnostic tests that are positive, varies somewhat based on how it's measured.

Last week, Arizona's percent positivity was 6%, the highest it's been after six weeks at 5%, according to the state, which has a unique way of calculating percent positivity. Weekly percent positivity statewide peaked at 25% in December.

Johns Hopkins University calculates Arizona's seven-day moving average of percent positives at 3% as of Monday. It shows the state's percent positivity peaked at 24.2% in December.

A positivity rate of 5% or less is considered a good benchmark that the spread of the disease is under control.

The state's overall COVID-19 death and case rates since Jan. 21, 2020, still remain among the worst in the country.

The COVID-19 death rate in Arizona since the pandemic began is 235 deaths per 100,000 people as of Sunday, according to the CDC, putting it sixth in the country in a state ranking that separates New York City from New York state. The U.S. average is 169 deaths per 100,000 people as of Sunday, the CDC said.

New York City has the highest death rate, at 382 deaths per 100,000 people, followed by New Jersey, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Mississippi.

Arizona's case rate per 100,000 people since the pandemic began also ranks sixth nationwide as of Sunday.

Arizona's known COVID-19 death count remained at 17,153, as no deaths were reported on Monday. Few new deaths are typically reported on Mondays. The state surpassed 17,000 deaths on April 7, after passing 16,000 deaths on March 2, 15,000 deaths on Feb. 17, 14,000 deaths on Feb. 6 and 13,000 deaths on Jan. 29, just one week after it passed 12,000 and two weeks after 11,000 deaths. The state exceeded 10,000 known deaths on Jan. 9. Arizona's first known death from the disease occurred in mid-March 2020.

Many of the reported deaths occurred days or weeks prior because of reporting delays and death certificate matching.

A total of 854,453 COVID-19 cases have been identified across the state. March and April have seen relatively lower case reports. Forty of the past 43 days' reported cases have been under 1,000.

The Arizona data dashboard shows 83% of all ICU beds and 87% of all inpatient beds in the state were in use Sunday, with 8% of ICU beds and 6% of non-ICU beds occupied by COVID-19 patients. Statewide, 291 ICU beds and 1,070 non-ICU beds were available. 

Hospitalizations for the disease generally dropped for about 13 weeks and recently appear to have plateaued somewhat.

The total number of patients hospitalized in Arizona for known or suspected COVID-19 cases was 555 on Sunday, up from 549 on Saturday and far below the record 5,082 inpatients on Jan. 11. By comparison, the highest number of COVID-19 hospitalizations in a single day during the summer 2020 surge was 3,517 on July 13.

The number of patients with suspected or known COVID-19 in ICUs across Arizona was at 145 on Sunday, down from 150 on Saturday and far below the record high of 1,183 on Jan. 11. During the summer surge in mid-July, ICU beds in use for COVID-19 peaked at 970.

Arizonans with confirmed and suspected COVID-19 on ventilators tallied 73 on Sunday, a slight uptick from the past few days and well below the record high 821 reached on Jan. 13. During the summer surge, July 16 was the peak day for ventilator use, with 687 patients.

Sunday saw 900 patients in the emergency room for COVID-19, well below the Dec. 29 single-day record of 2,341 positive or suspected COVID-19 patients seen in emergency departments across the state.

Arizona began its first COVID-19 vaccinations for health care workers, long-term care facilities and front-line first responders in mid-December. The state in early March shifted to a largely age-based rollout and in late March began allowing anyone 16 and older to start registering for appointments.

More than 2.7 million people statewide had received at least one vaccine dose as of Monday, with more than 1.9 million people fully vaccinated against COVID-19, state data show. Arizona has about 5.6 million adults age 18 and older.

What to know about Monday's numbers

Reported cases in Arizona: 854,453.

Cases since the outbreak began increased by 692, or 0.08%, from Sunday's 853,761 identified cases. These daily cases are grouped by the date they are reported to the state health department, not by the date the tests were administered. 

Cases by county: 531,673 in Maricopa, 114,294 in Pima, 50,584 in Pinal, 36,987 in Yuma, 22,426 in Mohave, 18,522 in Yavapai, 17,500 in Coconino, 16,058 in Navajo, 11,829 in Cochise, 11,270 in Apache, 7,898 in Santa Cruz, 6,861 in Gila, 5,531 in Graham, 2,452 in La Paz and 568 in Greenlee, according to state numbers.

The rate of cases per 100,000 people since the pandemic began is highest in Yuma County, followed by Apache, Santa Cruz, Graham and Navajo counties, per state data. The rate in Yuma County is 16,084 cases per 100,000 people. By comparison, the U.S. average rate since the pandemic began is 9,471 cases per 100,000 people as of Sunday, according to the CDC.

The Navajo Nation reported 30,366 cases and 1,262 confirmed deaths in total as of Sunday. The Navajo Nation includes parts of Arizona, New Mexico and Utah.

The Arizona Department of Corrections reported 12,266 inmates had tested positive for COVID-19 as of Friday, including 2,241 in Tucson, 2,028 in Eyman, 2,014 in Yuma, 1,303 in Lewis and 1,163 in Douglas; 46,309 inmates statewide have been tested. A total of 2,754 prison staff members have self-reported testing positive, the department said. Forty-three incarcerated people in Arizona have been confirmed to have died of COVID-19, with 11 additional deaths under investigation.

Race/ethnicity is unknown for 17% of all COVID-19 cases statewide, but 38% of positive cases have been diagnosed in white people, 30% Hispanic or Latino, 5% Native American, 3% Black and 1% Asian/Pacific Islander.

Of those who have tested positive in Arizona since the start of the pandemic, 16% were younger than 20, 44% were 20-44, 15% were 45-54, 12% were 55-64 and 13% were age 65 or older.

Laboratories had completed 4,174,520 diagnostic tests on unique individuals for COVID-19 as of Monday, 13.5% of which have come back positive. That number includes both PCR and antigen testing. The percentage of positive tests for the last full week was at 6%, following six full weeks at 5%. The state numbers leave out data from labs that do not report electronically.

The state Health Department includes probable cases as anyone with a positive antigen test, another type of test to determine current infection. Antigen tests (not related to antibody tests) use a nasal swab or another fluid sample to test for current infection. Results are typically produced within 15 minutes. 

A positive antigen test result is considered very accurate, but there's an increased chance of false-negative results, the Mayo Clinic says. Mayo Clinic officials say a doctor may recommend a PCR (polymerase chain reaction) test to confirm a negative antigen test result. 

Arizona as of Sunday had the sixth-highest overall case rate in the country since Jan. 21, 2020. Ahead of Arizona in cases per 100,000 people since the pandemic began are North Dakota, South Dakota, Rhode Island, Utah and Tennessee, according to the CDC.

Arizona's infection rate is 11,720 cases per 100,000 people, according to the CDC. The national average is 9,471 cases per 100,000 people, though the rates in states hard hit early in the pandemic may be an undercount because of a lack of available testing in March and April 2020.

Reported deaths in Arizona: 17,153

Deaths by county: 9,767 in Maricopa, 2,381 in Pima, 862 in Pinal, 827 in Yuma, 698 in Mohave, 523 in Navajo, 496 in Yavapai, 422 in Apache, 328 in Coconino, 282 in Cochise, 227 in Gila, 174 in Santa Cruz, 79 in La Paz, 77 in Graham and 10 in Greenlee. 

People age 65 and older make up 12,863 of the 17,153 deaths, or 75%. Following that, 14% of deaths were in the 55-64 age group, 6% were 45-54 and 4% were 20-44 years old.

While race/ethnicity was unknown for 6% of deaths, 50% of those who died were white, 29% were Hispanic or Latino, 8% were Native American, 3% were Black and 1% were Asian/Pacific Islander, the state data show.

The global death toll as of Monday morning was 3,022,265. The U.S. had the highest death count of any country in the world, at 567,233, according to Johns Hopkins University. Arizona's death total of 17,153 deaths represents about 3% of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S.

Reach the reporter at Alison.Steinbach@arizonarepublic.com or at 602-444-4282. Follow her on Twitter @alisteinbach.

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