After adding over 289,000 new cases throughout the last week, the U.S. now has more than 33.7 million confirmed cases of COVID-19. There have been more than 600,000 COVID-19-related deaths — the highest death toll of any country.

New cases continue to rise at a faster rate. In the past week, there were an average of 10.3 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 Americans — an increase from the week prior, when there were an average of 4.2 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 people.

While COVID-19 has spread to nearly every part of the country, cities continue to be the sites of major outbreaks. Experts agree that the virus is more likely to spread in group settings where large numbers of people routinely have close contact with one another, such as colleges, nursing homes, bars, and restaurants. Metropolitan areas with a high degree of connectivity between neighborhoods and a large population may be particularly at-risk.

The Rochester, MN, metro area consists of Olmsted County, Wabasha County, Fillmore County, and one other county. In the past week, there were an average of 2.7 new coronavirus cases every day per 100,000 Rochester residents, less than the national figure. The metro area’s average daily case growth in the most recent week is essentially unchanged from the week prior, when there was an average of 1.2 daily new cases per 100,000 Rochester residents.

The spread of coronavirus depends on a variety of factors and can vary even between neighboring counties. Within the Rochester metro area, COVID-19 is growing the fastest in Dodge County. There were an average of 3.5 new cases per day per 100,000 residents in Dodge County during the past week, the most of the four counties in Rochester with available data.

Case growth in the Rochester metro area varies widely at the county level. In Wabasha County, for example, there were an average of 0.7 new cases per day per 100,000 residents in the past week — the least of any county in Rochester and far more than the case growth rate in Dodge County.

While Dodge County is driving the growth of COVID-19 in the Rochester area, it does not have the highest incidence of cases overall. As of July 22, there were a total of 9,105.4 confirmed cases per 100,000 residents in Dodge County, the second most of the four counties in the metro area. For comparison, the U.S. has so far reported 10,391.7 cases per 100,000 Americans nationwide.

In order to slow the spread of COVID-19, city and county governments have ordered the closure of thousands of consumer-facing businesses. These measures have led to widespread job loss and record unemployment. In Dodge County, unemployment peaked at 8.2% in May 2020. As of April 2021, the county’s unemployment rate was 3.3%.

To determine the county in every metropolitan area where COVID-19 is growing the fastest, 24/7 Wall St. compiled and reviewed data from state and local health departments. We ranked counties according to the average number of new daily COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents in the seven days ending July 22. To estimate the incidence of COVID-19 at the metropolitan level, we aggregated data up from the county level using boundary definitions from the U.S. Census Bureau. Population data used to adjust case and death totals came from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2019 American Community Survey and are five-year estimates. Unemployment data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is not seasonally adjusted.

These are all the counties in Minnesota where COVID-19 is slowing (and where it’s still getting worse).

Rank in MSA	County	Population	New daily cases per 100,000, week ending July. 22	New daily cases per 100,000, week ending July. 15	Cumulative cases per 100,000	Cumulative deaths per 100,000
1	Dodge County	20,669	3.5	0.0	9,105.4	14.5
2	Fillmore County	20,949	3.0	2.7	7,570.8	47.7
3	Olmsted County	154,809	2.8	1.3	8,701.7	65.9
4	Wabasha County	21,537	0.7	0.7	9,662.4	13.9

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