The offseason has begun for the Chicago Bears, and readers filled Brad Biggs’ mailbag with questions about who the team’s quarterback will be in 2021, what the defense will look like and whether Allen Robinson will be back with the Bears.
What is your most realistic possibility for the Bears to fix the QB position immediately? — @jarrettcannon
I don’t want to dodge the question, but at this point, to throw a name out there, you’re literally just guessing. The process of evaluating who will be available and who is realistic is just beginning. The Bears have to consider every possible option you can dream up. Start big and work their way down a long list of potential options. That means keeping Deshaun Watson in their sights in the event the Houston Texans have no choice and have to explore trade options. That means doing homework on veterans who could become available such as Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Jimmy Garoppolo, Philip Rivers and others. That means exploring the list of players who will be unrestricted free agents. It means doing a deep dive on every quarterback who could be selected in the first couple rounds of the draft.
The Bears have to make a move here and they need to catch lightning in a bottle somehow. They need to pull off what the Minnesota Vikings did in 2017, when they added Case Keenum for depth and saw him go 11-3 as the starter with a strong cast of players around him and an excellent defense. Unfortunately, the Bears opted for Mike Glennon that season, paid him a ton more than Keenum received from the Vikings and got next to nothing in return on their investment. It’s just way too early in the process to single out a player and say, “There’s the quarterback the Bears need to turn things around in 2021.” We don’t know who will be in the pool of options when the new league year begins March 17.
Why does Ryan Pace have a job? — @cubbearfan
Ultimately, I believe the Bears decided to link Pace and coach Matt Nagy together, and it’s not like that move, on its own, is controversial or necessarily wrong. Some believe general managers and coaches should be paired and judged as one. The front office makes draft picks based on input from the coaching staff, and this has to be considered when evaluating the success or failure of drafting and developing players. That isn’t always the case; we saw the Bears fire GM Jerry Angelo after the 2011 season and ask his replacement, Phil Emery, to work with coach Lovie Smith for a season. A similar move was made in 2001 when Angelo was hired and told he had to retain Dick Jauron for at least that season. But some believe it is prudent to keep GMs and coaches paired in the evaluation process. Nagy was unlikely to be fired after consecutive 8-8 seasons with two years remaining on his contract. So the Bears decided to give them another shot to show progress and clearly have them under the same microscope moving into 2021.
What should not be overlooked is the high level of respect the organization has for Pace and the job he did helping the team navigate the COVID-19 pandemic this season. That counts for something, more than most imagine. I believe the fact the Bears would have been a week late to the hiring process probably contributed to some degree to the decision to retain Pace. More teams than usual were in the hiring cycle for a general manager and things were moving quickly elsewhere. It wasn’t a popular decision to keep Pace — and credit the Bears for acknowledging that. Pace has a first-round draft pick to work with for the first time since 2018, and the Bears believe, right or wrong, that with the defense in place, the team isn’t far off from being able to compete at a higher level next season. Time will tell if it was a good decision or one that leads to a housecleaning at the end of the 2021 season.
What are the most important factors for Matt Nagy in choosing a new defensive coordinator? — Kyle M., Tinley Park
That’s a good question. This is a really important decision for Nagy, and I am curious to see how much he will shake up the coaching staff. The Bears need the defense to perform at a higher level in 2021, and I wonder how much consideration Nagy will give to asking his players to learn a new scheme in the offseason. Ultimately he needs to make the best hire he can, and if the best candidate is coming from the outside, that would introduce some level of change to what the Bears are doing. It isn’t the most attractive option for in-demand coordinators either because Nagy will be viewed as entering 2021 on the hot seat. If the Bears opt for an in-house candidate, they can make a few tweaks to what they are doing defensively, keep the terminology the same and keep rolling. So that’s a big factor to consider when wondering if Nagy goes with defensive line coach Jay Rodgers, outside linebackers coach Ted Monachino or safeties coach Sean Desai. The Bears are known to have interviewed former Arizona Cardinals and New York Giants defensive coordinator James Bettcher and have put in requests to meet with Indianapolis Colts secondary coach Jonathan Gannon and Dallas Cowboys senior defensive assistant George Edwards.
Who are the salary cap casualties? — @benevolentjay
The first point that needs to be made is I believe there is a misconception about what a cap casualty truly is. Sometimes people apply this term any time a veteran is released in a move that creates cap space. A lot of times — in fact, I would venture to say most of the time — these moves are more football-related than anything else. The player’s performance has declined and no longer is commensurate with his pay in the team’s estimation. That’s not a cap casualty. A cap casualty, the way I view it anyway, is a player who still has value to a team but whose cap number has become too high for the team to handle. A perfect example with the Bears is Julius Peppers. He still had value to the Bears and would have been a better fit than Jared Allen, whom they signed in essence to replace him, but Peppers had a cap hit north of $18 million in 2014. The Bears had restructured his contract twice to create cap space, and that drove up the cap number to where they couldn’t carry it anymore.
So it’s important to note that most veterans who get released, even ones with large cap numbers, are let go because of declining performance. Looking at the Bears roster heading into 2021, I don’t see a lot of players who jump out as potential cap cuts. Maybe you could put tight end Jimmy Graham into that category. He had value for the Bears in the red zone, catching eight touchdown passes and another in the wild-card loss in New Orleans. Graham is due to earn $7 million in 2021 ($6.9 million base salary, $100,000 workout bonus) and has a cap hit of $10 million. Maybe the Bears approach him about a slight pay cut, but he definitely has value near the goal line and as a positive influence on second-round pick Cole Kmet. Other than Graham, I don’t see many players who might get cut because of their cap number. That isn’t why the Bears would part with right tackle Bobby Massie. Just keep in mind the term “cap casualty” is often misused.
How do you think the Bears approach the offseason? Aggressive for winning now in 2021 or conservative and planning for the future? — @martinn947
This is a no-brainer. GM Ryan Pace and coach Matt Nagy are under pressure to show progress in 2021, and that will be judged by wins and losses and the trajectory the team is showing as the season ends. Understanding that, I would expect them to be aggressive in finding players who can aid that goal. Pace and Nagy can’t take a long vision when considering what’s ahead, and ownership cannot put constraints on them as they attempt to put the team in a more competitive position. I don’t think that means Pace will be dealing a bundle of future draft picks to support his efforts in April, but he has been consistently aggressive.
What are the odds right now that the Bears re-sign Allen Robinson? If they lose him, how do you think they fill the position? Sign a good unrestricted free agent or look to the draft? — @adam407
The odds are low that the Bears have a multiyear contract agreement with Robinson before the new league year starts March 17. He wouldn’t sign a contract right now unless he gets pretty much exactly what he is seeking from the Bears, and the sides were obviously entrenched in their positions over the last 12 months, so it’s unlikely either would budge at this point. For Robinson, it makes no sense to take a deal that is short of his expectations because he is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent, and that’s how players maximize their earning power. For the Bears, they won’t get a measure of leverage again unless they secure Robinson with the franchise tag, which would put him on the books for about $18 million for 2021. Robinson, like nearly all players, has zero interest in being tagged. He just completed a contract season and surely doesn’t want to go through that situation again on a one-year deal. If the Bears tag Robinson, which would buy them time to negotiate a multiyear contract, my hunch is Robinson would decline to sign the tender. That would allow him to skip the offseason program and potentially training camp without penalty.
A handful of quality wide receivers project to be available in free agency. Kenny Golladay, Chris Godwin, Corey Davis, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Will Fuller, Curtis Samuel, Nelson Agholor, Marvin Jones and T.Y. Hilton are potential options. The top guys on the list won’t come cheap. Replacing Robinson via the draft would be challenging because it’s difficult to find a rookie who can step in and be a No. 1 option immediately. With the Bears under pressure to win, I suspect they will craft a plan to retain Robinson or otherwise be prepared to spend money to replace him. The bet right now is he gets franchise tagged, but that’s just a guess at this point. They have a lot of needs to fill — quarterback is far and away the biggest — and losing Robinson would create a gaping hole.
Knowing what is known now, did the Bears target the wrong safety for an extension? If they could do it all over again, would they rather have Adrian Amos and his contract moving forward? — @scotbertram
I understand where you are coming from. Eddie Jackson certainly had an underwhelming season after the Bears made him one of the highest-paid safeties in the league last January. He didn’t make plays on the ball in the back half and was routinely averse to contact, which stood out more because he wasn’t getting his hands on the ball. The problem is you can’t revisit the situation with 20/20 hindsight. Amos has been a nice addition for the Green Bay Packers, a key contributor in a secondary that has played well. But Amos isn’t the rangy free safety you think of when considering some of the best in the league who can play center field. It would have been difficult, if not impossible, for the Bears to pay both of them market value. Maybe they could have signed Amos to an extension early, before it became evident he could really cash in via free agency, but he was a solid player for the Bears and it’s fair to say he has been a little better for the Packers. The Bears certainly have to hope Jackson can have a more impactful 2021 season.
Realistically, knowing the Bears franchise is a joke, do you think fans will still show up in 2021? — @cliffpalmer22
Those are your words, not mine. I don’t think the Bears are a joke. I think they are stuck in no man’s land, and that’s a difficult place to be when you don’t have a franchise quarterback (or even a clear starter at the position) and you have other holes to fill, need to hire a defensive coordinator and are under pressure to show progress in 2021. That’s the unenviable position GM Ryan Pace and coach Matt Nagy find themselves in as they begin to lay out a game plan to restock the roster this offseason. I think fans are upset right now because the team has fallen well short of the expectations created by a 12-4 season in 2018. The Bears have gone 16-16 since with one of the most impotent offenses in the NFL. The defense showed signs of decline in the second half of 2020, and there are reasons to question whether progress is attainable for the current leadership.
Will fans show up? No doubt in my mind they will. If we can navigate the COVID-19 pandemic and reach the point where NFL stadiums are open to capacity or close to it, I believe fans will rejoice at the opportunity to attend live sporting events again. Bears fans have shown a consistent ability to overrate the team’s moves almost every offseason, so the temperature of the fan base could be different in May than it is right now. Will there be no-shows? There always are. Will there be season ticket holders who don’t renew this offseason? Maybe more than usual. But folks will be in line to scoop up the tickets that become available, and I imagine plenty of fans will be in attendance when the doors of Soldier Field are opened once again.
If the Bears do just well enough next year for Matt Nagy to keep his job, does he get an extension or does he need to finish out his contract before extension talk? — @hurricaneditka8
If Nagy does well enough to keep his job moving into 2022, I have to imagine a contract extension would be forthcoming. It’s unusual for a team to ask a head coach to go into a lame-duck season. That creates unnecessary distractions, makes it difficult for the coach to retain quality assistants and can undermine the entire operation. In my mind, Nagy is either good enough to earn an extension or he will be moving on. I don’t believe there is a middle ground.
What price is too high for Deshaun Watson? Three first-round picks work? — @bullrunner10010
I wrote at length Monday about the possibility of Watson being made available in a trade. Considering the Bears acquired edge rusher Khalil Mack for two first-round draft picks, I have to believe the price tag for Watson starts at three first-round picks or includes some package of players with considerable value to the Texans. The problem for the Bears is they pick 20th in Round 1 this year, and it’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which other teams with considerably more valuable draft capital aren’t in on Watson should the Texans reach the point where they shop him around the league. Maybe they would prefer to send him to an NFC team, but ultimately the Texans need to get the best possible return for Watson if they reach the point of no return.
What is the highest you think the Bears could realistically move up in the draft? Will Ryan Pace try and move into the top 5? — @jerradwyche
We’ve come to expect the unexpected from Pace, who has a history of making bold moves in the last six years. Moving from No. 20 to No. 5 would cost the Bears a ton in terms of draft capital — and more if teams believe quarterbacks are involved. There is a good chance three quarterbacks come off the board in the top five picks. Consider that the Jacksonville Jaguars at No. 1 and New York Jets at No. 2 could take quarterbacks. That would really drive up the asking price at Nos. 3, 4 and 5 if a team is pursuing a quarterback. In 2012, when Washington moved up from No. 6 to No. 2, it gave up that sixth pick, a 2012 second-round pick and first-rounders in 2013 and 2014 to choose Robert Griffin III at No. 2. Getting into the top five would cost the Bears an awful lot.
Is Jameis Winston a viable option at QB next season? — @ccjohnst
I don’t know if he’s a realistic option because most reports indicate the New Orleans Saints are motivated to re-sign him. If Drew Brees winds up retiring, figure Winston views the Saints and coach Sean Payton as his best opportunity. But go ahead and lump Winston into the group of quarterbacks the Bears should consider.
Have Sam Mustipher and Alex Bars proven that they can be starters going forward? Or does your crystal ball predict Bobby Massie, James Daniels or a new draft pick/signing take their spots when the new season begins? — @bennylava913
It’s a little early to say precisely what the Bears will do on the offensive line, but I believe they were impressed by the performance of Mustipher and Bars. If I had to guess, the Bears will view Mustipher as a starter moving forward, possibly release Massie and then look to replace him at right tackle with a veteran or a competition between Bars and a high draft pick. To me, Daniels and Cody Whitehair slot in as the starting guards in 2021 and the team rolls with Charles Leno at left tackle for one more season. That’s just my hunch on how things will play out, and in that scenario, Bars is a possible competitor at right tackle (I think he’s probably best suited at right guard) or a backup at multiple positions.
Do you think the Bears could switch to a 4-3 this offseason? — @jas__1
I wouldn’t rule anything out at this point. Their personnel allows them to be multiple, and what base front they use is probably a little overblown as the Bears, like every other team, spend so much time in a sub package. If you’re asking what they are best equipped to play, I would say a 3-4 is best for their roster. Could Khalil Mack make the conversion to a 4-3 front? He has the skill set to fit in any scheme. Could Robert Quinn do it? He has been better during his career in 4-3 defenses than he has been in 3-4 schemes. Then you’d have Eddie Goldman at nose tackle and Akiem Hicks as the three technique. Hicks could play that position, but he’s not perfect as a three technique. That’s a position where you want a penetrator, and Hicks is more of a stack-and-shed guy. That makes Bilal Nichols a rotational player, and he’s a little better than that. He fits well in a 3-4 scheme.
The Bears would need to add linebackers in a 4-3 scheme too — one if they keep Danny Trevathan and two if they part with him. Keep in mind they need to re-sign strong safety Tashaun Gipson or add a new safety as well. With all of the issues the Bears have on offense, I don’t think it’s a good idea to create more change on defense than is necessary. They can play a 30 front, a 50 front (which they used a lot this season) and a nickel front, but I’m not sure converting to a 40 front for their base defense is the best use of their current personnel.
You continue to spread the word the Bears should ditch Mitch Trubisky or look bad starting him next season. Why not give us analysis of who should be their quarterback? For all of Trubisky’s faults, he had a passer rating of 93.8, 19th in the NFL, and I don’t see many better that are gettable. — @andersonvillec
No one said the quarterback search would be an easy process for the Bears this offseason, and it might not produce a clear choice. I would not completely rule out the possibility they consider bringing back Trubisky, and they clearly represent the best option for him to start in 2021. But I’m of the opinion the Bears will not return to Trubisky and expect him to be significantly different in 2021 than he was in 2020 or 2019. Look back at what happened in the final two games against the Green Bay Packers and the playoff loss in New Orleans. The offense wasn’t able to generate enough yardage and points for the Bears to have a chance.
Falling back on Trubisky for 2021 would put the Bears in much the same situation they were in the last two years. Coach Matt Nagy’s job and future are on the line, and in my mind that will lead him to seek a different quarterback. Maybe I’m wrong, but the Bears have really struggled against better competition, and I figure they will seek a replacement. Who will it be? As I’ve said above, it’s way too early in the process to identify one. I just don’t find it realistic to believe the Bears would go back to Trubisky for a fifth season and expect a different outcome for an offense that has been one of the worst in the league.
If the Packers win the Super Bowl, might Aaron Rodgers decide to retire? Please? Pretty please? — Russ L.
Rodgers is the clear favorite to win NFL MVP honors this season. You need to wrap your arms around more realistic dreams.
My question is the quarterback dilemma and how it seems to escape the Bears. It’s like some mystical unicorn that does not exist at Halas Hall. Are the Bears alone in their ineptitude to find a QB? You have written ad nauseam that the Bears will not be fixed until they shore up this position. My father told me as a kid that the definition of luck is where opportunity meets preparedness. Comparing the management and ownership to the other 31 teams, are the Bears just that bad at talent selection? How is it Green Bay continually makes this a position of strength? How is it other teams seem to find serviceable players, middle tier? I’m interested if the Bears are alone in this camp. — John B., Mundelein
The list of have-nots right now when it comes to quarterback is longer than the list of teams that have it figured out, so the Bears have plenty of competition in their bid to find a bridge option to their next possible franchise quarterback. The New York Jets have been struggling to find an answer at the position for the longest time. Hall of Fame quarterback John Elway was able to lure Peyton Manning to Denver for four seasons, but otherwise the Broncos have had a maddening time filling the role, and who knows quarterbacks better than Elway? The Minnesota Vikings have gone through many options since the Bears acquired Jay Cutler in 2009. The list of teams that roll through quarterbacks is probably longer than you think. There aren’t enough high-level options to go around for 32 teams, and that has been the case forever. It will require spot-on evaluation and certainly a little bit of luck for the Bears to solve this riddle. It also will require patience, and Bears fans are getting antsy — and for good reason.
What are the chances the Bears can trade for Jordan Love? — George S., Des Moines
I don’t see why the Packers would have any interest in trading Love after only one season, and they sure as heck aren’t going to do anything to potentially end the Bears’ decades of quarterback misery. The rivals haven’t made a trade since Aug. 29, 1998, when the Bears picked up running back Glyn Milburn, who had a nice but short stint with them as a returner. The Packers got a seventh-round pick back and wound up getting the better end of the deal as they used it on four-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Donald Driver.
ESPN has been buzzing about the Ravens needing to acquire a big, proven No. 1 receiver like Allen Robinson or Kenny Golladay. The idea is the Ravens must better support Lamar Jackson and the passing game. They do figure to have plenty of cap space. What could the Bears get in a tag-and-trade deal with a team like the Ravens? Not a first-round choice, right? Maybe a second? A third? — Bill P., Chicago
I would not rule out the possibility of a tag-and-trade scenario for Robinson, but the odds are pretty remote. The Bears need to keep Robinson if they want to turn things around next season. There is no way they could get a first-round pick for Robinson in this scenario as the Ravens would be the team paying him with a new contract. You’re probably looking at a third-round pick, maybe a third-rounder and a little more. The benefit of that over waiting for a compensatory draft pick, which the Bears would be in line to get if Robinson departed in free agency and the Bears didn’t spend big in free agency, is they could get a 2021 pick (or picks) from the Ravens as opposed to waiting until 2022 for a compensatory selection.
My observation (which may be faulty) is that both Mitch Trubisky and Nick Foles struggled mightily when the offensive line was going through its “sieve phase” prior to the additions of Sam Mustipher and Alex Bars to the starting lineup. Foles then became injured and never had a chance to play behind the revamped O-line. Trubisky replaced him and his play improved somewhat behind the new line and the dumbing down of the scheme to play to Trubisky’s strengths. Since the chances of the Bears being able to “fix” the quarterback position through trade or draft this offseason seem slim to none, is there a possibility that Foles, behind an improved offensive line, could provide serviceable play? If the Bears add a solid offensive tackle in the first round, the line could be even further improved. While I recognize Foles’ limitations, especially in terms of mobility, he could at least utilize the entire field and allow Matt Nagy to take the training wheels off the offensive scheme. — Dave, Winfield
You make a valid point in regard to what Foles had to go through during his experience as the starter. I also would point out the Bears faced some of the best defenses they played when Foles was the starter. But, boy, I am hard-pressed to put together a case for Foles being the Day 1 starter in 2021. He really struggled, and while you could expect him to be more proficient with better protection, it was a disaster when he was out there. I guess this option cannot be completely ruled out, but I would be more surprised if the Bears chose to roll with Foles as the starter than if they opted to re-sign Trubisky and give him another shot. They were an absolute mess on offense with Foles at the helm. They are better off moving forward with him as a backup, considering they owe him $9 million guaranteed.
You mentioned how the Bears relied on “a bunch of corporate speak” during the news conference. What I find so galling about their use of corporate speak (which, as someone who has worked in the corporate world most of my career, I disdain) is that they used it to obfuscate situations rather than clarify and they used it to distract from performance. For example, Ted Phillips’ line about looking “at what makes a successful organization besides wins and losses.” That is exactly what makes an organization successful. How can you look beyond that? Can you imagine any other company saying results don’t matter to their shareholders? If they are going to use corporate speak, the least they can do is identify KPIs (key performance indicators — there’s a corporate speak acronym for you) that they will use to measure progress in a specific, quantifiable and timely manner. Did they lay out any detailed expectations and timing for the team moving forward? My sense from the coverage of the news conference was that they talked in word clouds, buzzwords and circles, and that just illustrates why the Bears are mired in decades-long mediocrity, not to mention that it is just beyond disrespectful to their long-suffering, amazingly loyal fan base. I’m hoping they have some sense of specifics since, to use a famous corporate speak line, you can’t manage what you don’t measure. — George S.
I understand your frustration with the past season and how the team handled the situation. Another thing I wrote is the Bears were entering an unwinnable news conference the week after the season ended. There was really nothing any of the individuals on the Zoom call could say that would sound good after another season with high expectations — and a 5-1 start — unraveled. Short of multiple firings, the fan base was not going to be satisfied with the results, and the Bears chose not to make any personnel moves. Could the situation have been handled better? Absolutely. But in the end, the Bears were going to lose the news conference and folks were going to be irritated. They couldn’t detail any concrete plans for how they’re going to straighten things out because they haven’t had the time needed to detail what they’re going to do. Even if they did know, they’re not going to share it. I concur that the corporate chatter in the call made the situation appear worse than it is. We’ll see what moves the Bears have in mind for the months ahead because that’s what matters.
A question nags at me, with all of the talk about the Bears landing a good veteran QB. Why would a quality player want to come onto a team with a porous offensive line, B-class receivers and a disappearing running game? And why would the Bears give up on multiple talented players, either in the draft or veterans, for such a chance? Better to retain Mitch Trubisky for three years and build the lines, receiver corps, etc. There’s such a wide gap between this team and perennial playoff teams that the chance of a Super Bowl is five-plus years away. Again, why would a good QB choose this “opportunity.” — Lon M., University Place, Wash.
You are right that if a veteran quarterback is on the street and has choices, the Bears might not look like a particularly attractive destination because of how the offense has performed the last two seasons and because Matt Nagy looks like a coach entering the season on the hot seat. What you have to understand is GM Ryan Pace and Nagy don’t have time to take a long view at this situation and aim to build a winner in the kind of time frame you suggest. They need to show improvement in 2021 and probably have to create some reason for optimism in the first half of the season. If the Bears acquire a quarterback via trade, the incoming player wouldn’t be able to turn the situation down. If the Bears are searching for a quarterback via free agency, how many starting opportunities will be available? There’s appeal in a chance to start, and the Bears will be able to get someone. But Pace and Nagy will be doing everything in their power to get this thing turned around immediately.
Can the Bears get Jimmy Garoppolo from the 49ers? — @tellus32
The Bears have to consider all options when it comes to quarterbacks, and Garoppolo would fall into that category. He would be an interesting guy to study if he does become available. The 49ers wouldn’t part with Garoppolo, though, unless they have someone they believe will be a clear upgrade. That option isn’t on their roster right now, so something would have to change there for Garoppolo to be a possibility. But I would do homework on him and every other veteran quarterback who might be made available in trade discussions or possibly get cut.
Any chance to lure Andrew Luck out of retirement? — @der_316
There has been no indication Luck will consider returning to play, and if he did, what would make the Bears, in their current state, an attractive destination for him? Luck maintains a solid relationship with the Indianapolis Colts, and if he considered playing again, that looks like a much better destination. I don’t think anyone is holding out hope Luck returns to football.
